29.10.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
On October 24, the Russian State Duma ratified the agreement with
the DPRK on the so-called “comprehensive strategic partnership,” which includes military support. But without waiting for this fact, Pyongyang has already begun to actively implement it – it has sent about 8 million shells of its own production, ballistic missiles, and now soldiers to the front in Ukraine.
The appearance of thousands of North Koreans on the battlefield would mean an escalation of the war, but the West’s reaction to such a development has been quite restrained so far. Only South Korea will take “staged measures” against the DPRK and Russia in response to their military cooperation. Seoul is also considering the possibility of sending offensive and defensive weapons to Ukraine.
On October 28, at an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council, South Korea presented the main facts of military cooperation between the Russian Federation and the DPRK to NATO representatives . Following the meeting, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Mark Rutte, noted that the DPRK troops are already in the Kursk region, and this is a significant escalation on the part of the Russian Federation, but did not specify how exactly NATO would respond.
OBOZ.UA reports on the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine by North Korean soldiers.
Why this is not as positive for Russia as it seems
The presence of North Korean troops in Russia seems like a victory and another “Kuzkina mother” for the West. However, the importance of even 12,000 new soldiers should be put in context. For example, the Russians lose that many people in ten days of fighting. So such a number clearly will not change the basic arithmetic of the war. Given that the DPRK is provoking and preparing for war with neighboring South Korea, it is unlikely that it will allow hundreds of thousands of its troops to be transferred to Putin.
Such a move looks more like a sign of weakness, because if “everything is going according to plan” and Russia is winning, as Russian dictator Putin claims, then why is Moscow attracting foreigners to its side? That is, “Kim’s soldiers” may indicate that Russia is “desperate” and is looking for options because it does not want to mobilize on its own.” NATO Secretary General Rutte also says this: “The transfer of North Korean troops to the Kursk region is an escalation of the war and a sign of Putin’s growing sense of hopelessness.”
But there is an assumption that the Kremlin needs to involve Koreans in the front to strengthen its position in the probable negotiations on all-talking and demonstrations of allied capabilities with the DPRK against the backdrop of the reduction of aid to Ukraine from the West and the still absence of permission to strike with long-range weapons deep into the Russian Federation. They say that Moscow has a real ally, ready to do anything with the Russian dictator, but what are your Western partners worth?
The reaction is still muted
NATO Secretary General Rutte said that he could officially confirm the presence of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region of Russia only on October 28 after a meeting with South Korean representatives. The Alliance finally acknowledged that “deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions.” But, as Western media note, NATO’s potential response to such steps is limited for now. It could include increased support for Ukraine (what might be discussed, of course, is not reported) and strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region.
Although the US acknowledged the presence of NATO before, it stated that it was “closely monitoring the dispatch of North Korean troops to participate in the war in Ukraine.” At the same time, it did not provide permission for strikes with American weapons on Russian territory. This was stated by the coordinator of strategic communications of the White House National Security Council John Kirby at the last briefing.
At the same time, the US Congress proposed that the American military strike North Korean troops in Ukraine.
“The Biden-Harris administration should make clear that the involvement of North Korean troops in this conflict is a ‘red line’ for the United States. If North Korean troops invade the sovereign territory of Ukraine, the United States should seriously consider taking direct military action against North Korean troops,” said Mike Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. But such statements look more like trolling the current administration than potential retaliatory steps from the United States.
Is Macron’s idea of deploying troops in Ukraine alive again?
The French president made his proposal in February, but it was quickly rejected by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who vowed that no European or NATO troops would be deployed in Ukraine.
Following confirmation of the presence of North Korean troops, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said it was time for European countries to return to the French President’s idea of deploying troops in Ukraine.
“We need to go back to ‘boots on the ground’ and other ideas that Macron has proposed. North Korea has actually done that. We are still lagging behind, reacting to escalation instead of reversing it. Better late than never, Macron’s ideas should be reconsidered,” Landsbergis said.
However, as reported by Politico, the EU countries will raise the issue of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine only after the war is over. In particular, former US Ambassador to Japan Kenneth Weinstein said that European countries should prepare to send a contingent to Ukraine to provide “serious security guarantees.” In his opinion, if a demilitarized zone is created between Ukraine and Russia, it should be occupied by European forces, not NATO.
Will Ukraine get a new ally?
It seems Putin and Kim Jong-un have “created” a new strong ally for Ukraine. South Korean President Yun Seok-yul said that Seoul “will not sit idly by” while the DPRK sends troops to war in Ukraine and is ready to take action. Until recently, the country, which is one of the leading manufacturers of modern weapons, maintained the principle of inadmissibility of direct supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine.
“If the DPRK sends special forces to the war in Ukraine as part of cooperation with the Russian Federation, we will support Ukraine in stages and also consider and implement necessary measures to ensure security on the Korean Peninsula,” said Yun Sok-yul. According to him, Seoul is ready to consider the possibility of sending weapons to Ukraine, since the alleged deployment of North Korean troops in Russia is “a provocation that threatens global security not only on the Korean Peninsula but also in Europe.”
Xi doesn’t like all this
The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia “was a dramatic move, and China doesn’t like it at all,” the Financial Times points out. A significant rapprochement between North Korea and Russia could lead to destabilization on the Korean Peninsula and even in the wider Far East region. On the one hand, Pyongyang could receive more modern military technology from Moscow, including for missile and nuclear programs, which would accelerate the arms race in the region, but on the other hand, the region’s democratic countries would strengthen their alliance in Asia in response.
The Chinese authorities were displeased even before it became known that Kim had sent his special forces to Vladimir Putin to help him in the war with Ukraine. Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping thanked Kim for congratulating him on the 75th anniversary of the founding of communist China, but omitted the still regularly used expression “friendly neighboring country.” In the East, such moments do not just happen and the goal is to point out a problem.
Such cooperation between Putin and Kim runs counter to the Sino-Brazilian peace plan that Xi is actively pushing – not to escalate or spread the war to third parties. In fact, Xi Jinping personally called for an end to “adding fuel to the fire” and drawing third countries into the war in Ukraine during the BRICS summit, but this statement came amid reports of North Korean soldiers being sent to Russia, which further angered the Chinese leader.
North Korea’s full-scale entry into the war on Russia’s side comes as China tries to normalize relations with some Western countries. After all, any improvement in ties with former foes would help China offset the heightened tensions with the US after the election. China has told Britain and Japan that it wants to turn the page in bilateral relations. Also, wine exports from Australia have jumped by more than a third this year, helped by increased shipments to China after the countries ended their spat. China’s next move could be to allow seafood exports from Japan, all amid claims of improved relations between the two countries. But all these steps could prove futile due to the strengthening of Russian-North Korean “friendship.”
If we continue to simply observe everything, dictatorships will win
Regarding the West’s reaction to the appearance of North Korean soldiers, there has been a certain delay throughout the war. Apparently, in the coming days there will be statements of concern and anxiety. And then, when this information wave begins to subside, these Korean troops may already be used on the territory of Ukraine itself. As for the logic of Putin’s actions, it seems to me that this is a tightening of the composition of the troops. Yes, for now we have 10-12 thousand Korean soldiers, but this is the first batch, and there will only be more of them. After all, Korea has a million servicemen, 4-5 million reservists. That is, there is something to take from there,” noted the head of the public league “Ukraine – NATO” Sergey Dzherdzh .
According to Sergey Djerj, in general, there is no reaction from NATO, the USA, the European Union, the UN. And all this against the backdrop of the nuclear powers uniting and waging war in Europe.
“It is stated that there will be increased counteraction to the “axis of evil” in the Indo-Pacific region. This is all great, but what about Ukraine, where there is a war going on, and where people are already being killed. That is, we want to see an adequate reaction here. We are not asking for much, but we just want permission, say, to start hitting military targets on Russian territory with long-range weapons. Will this change anything for NATO? I think nothing. We are talking about being invited to join NATO. And the invitation itself is a political step, which also does not oblige anyone to anything. This is not an escalation, but on the contrary, the extension of security guarantees,” notes Sergei Dzherdzh.
As for Macron’s idea, according to Sergey Djerj, this is also possible and should be done. For example, starting with the deployment of instructors for the Ukrainian military on Ukrainian territory.
As for the actions of the US, according to Sergey Dzherdzh, Biden has every chance to go down in history, as Reagan, Roosevelt, and Churchill did in their time. Otherwise, if we continue to simply “observe and shrug our shoulders in a moderate manner,” then dictatorships will win.
“As for China’s attitude to the appearance of Korean soldiers at the front, in fact, the DPRK could not actively cooperate with Russia without permission from the PRC, which largely controls this state. Therefore, such a Chinese position may also be a game to demonstrate to everyone that look, we do not support this, do not write us through a comma with the Russian Federation, the DPRK and Iran. On the other hand, there are indeed elements that indicate that perhaps the Chinese really do not like this cooperation. That this may lead to the involvement of other countries in Europe and the world on the side of Ukraine, so to speak. And in general, this consolidates the West as such. That is, these processes may intensify,” noted Sergei Dzherdzh.
Here is my prediction on the West’s response to this newest and gross escalation by mafia land and north korea.
Nothing concrete will happen. All the usual Western entities have done their part, which was expelling copious amounts of hot oral gasses. There will be no permission to strike deeply into mafia land with Western weapons. There will be no massive increase of military aid. There will not be any military aid from S. Korea. And, there certainly will not be any NATO troops in Ukraine.
Why do I think this? Because of a hidden clue; it’s been said by some that by using nork troops, mafia land shows its weakness. This means that Ukraine is doing fine as is, mafia land is weak. There’s no need to change the status quo.
China doesn’t care, and nothing happens in north korea anyway without their green light.
The message from the West is very clear; the enemies of democracy and freedom can and will escalate this war as much as they like, there will be no determined response from the West. We have no real leaders in place to do so. Where will this end? That’s anyone’s guess, but our future is getting bleaker as time moves on. It will be black if Trump wins.
I agree. Except for your last line. 😎