October 01, 2026
The shutdown of Azov and Black Sea ports as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes has presented Russian farmers with a previously unseen problem: tens of millions of tons of fresh harvest are unclaimed and risk languishing in storage until at least next year.
Up to 20 million tons of grain—approximately one-sixth of the total harvested by mid-September—will remain unsold, predicts Vladimir Petrychenko, head of the ProZerno analytics firm. With a harvest of approximately 140 million tons (according to the Ministry of Agriculture’s forecast ), 59 million tons were expected to be exported. But if the Azov-Black Sea ports remain shut down, only 39 million tons will be exported, Petrychenko estimates.
“This isn’t a disaster, it’s a catastrophe,” he said at an Agroinvestor conference. “This is the very catastrophe we’re heading toward. We’ll see it all around January, because everything will accumulate” (quotes from Reuters).
Babken Ispiryan, deputy chairman of the People’s Farmer Association, estimates the volume of “excess” grain to be even higher—20-30 million tons. “In nine months, we’ll have a new harvest, and the old one will still be sold—that’s guaranteed,” he said.
According to Petrychenko, it’s also unclear what to do with the approximately 4-5 million tons of sunflower seeds from the new harvest. Exporting meal has encountered problems, following the wheat crisis, and Russian factories will not be able to process the entire 19 million tons.
Due to the military escalation, ports on the Sea of Azov ceased operations in early July, and shipping through the Kerch Strait was also halted. In August, after the strikes on Novorossiysk, the Black Sea terminals—the main gateway for grain exports—were paralyzed.
The grain surplus has driven down domestic prices: in southern Russia, a ton costs 4,000-5,000 rubles—half what it was a few months ago. As a result, farmers are forced to sell their harvests for next to nothing, incurring losses.
“Prices are collapsing today,” laments Dmitry Garnov, Deputy General Director of Aeon Agro. “We haven’t given up hope that grain will finally flow through the ACB in the second half of the season, and then things won’t be so dire.”
Russian authorities are trying to open new routes—through the Baltic Sea and even the Arctic Ocean. But, according to Bloomberg estimates , these only account for one-tenth of the volumes shipped through southern ports. “The harsh reality is that there are no export routes that could replace the Black Sea,” says Andrey Sizov, General Director of SovEcon.
ProZerno estimates that by the end of the year, Russia will have accumulated up to 34.8 million tons of “carryover” grain. The government is beginning purchases for the intervention fund, but these volumes—3 million tons—are just a drop in the ocean of unsold harvest.
Under these conditions, the question arises: is it even necessary to sow a new crop now, says Ispiryan of the People’s Farmer Association. There is a practice around the world where farmers refrain from sowing in certain areas with government support, he noted. Ispiryan estimates that hypothetically, abandoning spring grain sowing in Russia, with government subsidies for producers, could cost just over 10 billion rubles, but would help agricultural producers and not overload the market.
“Buying up grain immediately and storing it will become an even greater problem next year. We need to figure out where to use this grain or simply not sow it,” he said.
Under the optimistic scenario, carryover grain stocks will offset the potential reduction in sowing for the 2027 harvest by approximately 5%. However, under the pessimistic scenario, where the overhang on the market exceeds the optimistic scenario by almost 7 million tons, the sector will face a wave of bankruptcies, Petrychenko said.
The entire shithole is a giant catastrophe.
What morons. Make vodka.