12/30/2023

It will be possible to put an end to the war in Ukraine only under a number of conditions, one of which is the collapse of the aggressor state of the Russian Federation. And this dismantling is inevitable. Nevertheless, the West, shackled by three of its greatest fears, is trying to ensure that this “under-empire” continues to smolder. These fears are: the use of nuclear weapons by the head of the Kremlin, Putin, the spread of nuclear weapons between fragments of the collapsed “empire” and, finally, the fall of the colossal natural resource of Siberia into the hands of China.

As for Putin himself, he simply cannot stop the war in Ukraine, because his life literally depends on it. Moreover, Russia could go crazy and hit European countries. No matter how cynical it may sound, this madness would be beneficial to Ukraine. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by military expert, reserve colonel Petr Chernik .

– Czech President Petr Pavel said that in 2024, “significant shifts” can be expected in the war in Ukraine due to two circumstances: “elections” in Russia and elections in the United States. Do you think that because of this we will not be able to put an end to this war next year?

– Of course we can’t. This follows from common sense. It will be possible to put an end to this war only when the Russian Federation disintegrates, all nuclear weapons are taken away from it, it is cut off from the free Siberian natural resources, we join NATO and within three more generations, that is, 60 years, what will be formed on the ruins of the Russian Federation, will undergo a reorganization similar to what the Nazis went through after World War II.

If none of these factors work out – and it looks like they don’t work out – then if there is a pause in the war, Putin really wants Trump to win, and he will make every effort to ensure that the conflict is frozen. They will take a break, sanctions will be partially lifted from them, and the issues of a new Russian-Ukrainian war in a year, two, five, ten years are only a matter of time.

You don’t need to have a hyper-analytical mind to understand this. These are stating things of geopolitics. Russian sub-empire is impossible without Ukraine. Their identity is impossible without the prestigious heritage of Kievan Rus. “Kyiv is the mother of Russian cities.” Identity is the most defining quality of homo sapiens in any community. Their identity comes from us. They won’t accept that we exist. We will either be with them, or we will be destroyed, or they will be destroyed. Dot.

– But, fortunately, Ukraine was not left alone with Russia and not even in the US-Russia-Ukraine triangle. There is also another international community, in particular Europe, which today is increasingly aware of the danger to itself if Putin manages to seize the entire territory of our country. Do you think there could be a breakthrough in Western military assistance in 2024, in part because of this awareness?

– Military assistance comes down to three fundamental aspects. The first is the number of aircraft and the missile and bomb load for it, the second is a large number of long-range missiles, the same ATACMS, not 20-30, but at least a thousand. Third, a large number of electronic warfare equipment.

The Russian Federation will inevitably be dismantled. I don’t have the slightest doubt about this. But there are three horrors of American geopolitics why a decision has not yet been made. Although the American analyst Janusz Bugajski described everything in his unsurpassed work “Failed State: Instructions for tearing apart Russia.”

Where is the problem? The first is a potential nuclear strike. Can Putin resort to it? Why not? If he realizes that he is doomed to The Hague, he would rather press the button than go there. The second is the fear that no one knows where the point of no return is. Let’s assume there is no nuclear strike, but Putin’s death could change the situation. He says correctly: “No me, no Russia.” The collapse of Russia could lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Voronezh-45 (a military town in Russia, where the nuclear fuel base is located. – Ed.). Prigogine went there, and no one resisted him. There are so many terrorist organizations, from ISIS, Hamas to the Colombian cartels, that will understand that they can fight over a few boxes of nuclear shells. Now imagine that one such shell explodes somewhere in New York…

And the third, most important point. Resources. Planet Earth has only one type of economic structure – capitalism. Socialism does not exist. These are all fairy tales that there is socialism in China. Even North Korea, considered communist, trades very successfully with the outside world. First of all, drugs are for dollars, and there are no problems there. Humanity is growing at an insane rate; this year the tenth billion has grown. And all of this requires resources, and 40% of this resource is in Siberia. Where do you think these resources will go if the Russian Federation falls? China. And China is just as much a monster as Russia, and perhaps bigger and worse.

If the Chinese get such gigantic resources, it will cloud their minds, no doubt about it. Conventionally, you live on 50 thousand a month, and suddenly 5 million starts falling on your head every month. Will the Chinese go crazy? They’ll go crazy, that’s guaranteed.

Until there is an answer to how to solve these three dilemmas, Russia will be kept in a state of relative vegetation. But Putin has no choice, he has no other choice, he must continue the war in Ukraine, because defeat in the war means his physical death. Next year he will be 72 years old. Tyrants can live up to a hundred years. For example, Fidel Castro held power until he was 95 years old, and there are many such examples. As soon as Putin loses, they will kill their own. That’s all he has left.

Is this why Boris Pistorius (German Minister of Defense – Ed.) is reflecting? Because they understand that their society needs to be prepared. In the West, societies do influence the electoral process and influence governments.

Could Russia go crazy, resort to suicide and strike Europe? Why not? I’m being a little ironic: this is very beneficial for us, because then they will have to fight for real. Not with help to Ukraine, but with real action.

At the same time, guided by life’s wisdom, I will say the following: a case is still possible that we cannot see. History is a cyclical chain of cause and effect. But cases escalate and create snow on one’s head. This has happened many times.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/v-harkove-razdalis-vzryivyi-byila-obyavlena-ugroza-ballistiki.htm