19.06.2026
Against the backdrop of successful Ukrainian strikes on Crimea and Moscow, there are signs of significant shifts taking place within the Russian elite. At least part of this circle is aware of the complexity of the situation in which the aggressor country finds itself. A landmark event was the arrest of one of the associates of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin in the 1990s, Ilya Traber, or “Antiquarian”, who was skillfully “lured” from Europe, where he had been living in recent years. This is the same Traber who worked with the future head of Gazprom Alexei Miller at the beginning of his career and who is friends with the current head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bastrykin.
With the current state of the security forces in Russia, protests are a priori impossible, but a split in the Kremlin elites could become the basis for them. The street could de facto become the one that legitimizes the new government that will replace Putin.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by Olga Kurnosova, a Russian opposition figure recognized as a “foreign agent” in Russia.
– The first question is about the situation in Crimea. Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov announced a logistical lockdown on the peninsula, and the situation with strikes on Russian logistical routes is already developing very rapidly. Do you think that Crimea was not accidentally the place where the Ukrainian Armed Forces were deployed? After all, it was from Crimea that Putin’s war against Ukraine began. Could the process of ending the war begin from here?
– A very difficult question. Yes, there are undoubtedly very serious problems in Crimea. I am sure that many of those who enthusiastically welcomed, as they called it, the “return to their native harbor” now have very strong doubts that their enthusiasm and decision at that time were correct.
But there is another side to the story. The Russian authorities are trying to tell us that this was the will of the Crimeans. But this was the will of the Kremlin – if there was no will of the Kremlin, they would not have held any fake referendums.
Yes, of course, in Crimea there was a certain, perhaps even quite widespread, point of view that from the standpoint of everyday economic well-being they would be better off in Russia. And this point of view flies into the abyss, and it is also clear why. I have always wondered what prevented Russians from going to Ukrainian Crimea to rest. If you went to rest in Antalya, it would never occur to anyone to seize it. Why it was necessary to seize Crimea, I absolutely do not understand.
Of course, there are shifts in consciousness at the everyday level. But in order for any changes to occur at the decision-making level in the Kremlin, shifts in consciousness must occur there, at least in one brain. But it seems to me that it is already so cemented that something can change there only with this head. I mean President Putin.
– Previously, the opinion was often expressed that Crimea is something sacred and extremely important for Putin. Do you suppose that in response to the logistical lockdown of the peninsula, he might resort to extraordinary measures?
– I believe that for Putin, sacred objects do not exist in principle, because there is no ideological basis for what he is doing. The annexation of Crimea was extremely necessary for him, because in 2011-2012 there were large protests in Russia, Putin’s rating fluctuated. I don’t know what political technologies suggested it to him, but they decided to construct a Putin majority in this way using the “Crimean consensus”. And, of course, they succeeded. Another thing is what happened next. Therefore, Crimea has no sacredness for him – he has a rather pragmatic view of things.
Let’s also not forget that the war with Ukraine is, first and foremost, an attempt to show Europe, and better yet, the whole world, that Russia is not as weak as it really is. That’s why everything is more complicated.
At the same time, of course, there is a fairly noticeable elite group that understands the situation, that realizes that everything is getting worse every day, and Crimea is just a very vivid illustration of this deterioration. Therefore, I have only one question: when will this understanding develop into a so-called palace coup? This question, of course, is quite serious.
Of all the recent events that we are observing, and which are greatly underestimated in the Ukrainian segment, this is the arrest of Ilya Traber, the so-called “Antiquarian”, who lived peacefully in Latvia, despite the entire criminal trail, and who was lured to the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, and yesterday (June 17. – Ed.) was arrested.
He was a member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle in the 1990s. Traber had various people working for him who later became very influential, including Alexei Miller. Therefore, the question of why, how, and who approved the decision to arrest Traber is very interesting. Isn’t this a certain indicator that some really serious events are taking place in the elites? This is a question that interests me very much right now.
– Traber is suspected of the murder of St. Petersburg MP Petrov and illegal arms trafficking. Do you see in this arrest a hint that the elites have begun to act differently?
– That there are huge shifts taking place in the elites. If Traber can be arrested today, what can be done tomorrow? Arrest Kovalchuk? Of course, Kovalchuk is unlikely to be arrested, but nevertheless. Let’s name anyone else, for example, Tymchenko or Rotenberg.
Here we are not only talking about the murder of Petrov. Petrov is a formal pretext for the arrest. In fact, many associate Traber’s name with the very long-ago murder in St. Petersburg of Mikhail Manevich (the vice-governor of St. Petersburg and Chubais’ associate was shot by a sniper on August 18, 1997. – Ed.). At his grave, Chubais swore to find the killer, but then nothing happened.
Therefore, Traber is a whole layer of Russian St. Petersburg history. If you remember the cult film “Gangster Petersburg”, then the prototype of “Antibiotic” is Traber.
– Do you suppose that Traber could have prepared a palace coup in the Kremlin and paid for it?
– Rather, on the contrary. Traber has always been a person quite close to Putin. Some time ago, on Putin’s personal orders, Kostin (Chairman of the Board of the state-owned VTB bank Andrey Kostin. – Ed.) provided a large loan to some office close to Traber. Traber’s personal friend is Bastrykin (Chairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation Alexander Bastrykin. – Ed.).
So it’s hard to assess it now. We need to look into it specifically to understand what happened and what it indicates.
Just yesterday (June 17. – Ed.) The Basmanny Court made a decision to arrest Traber. I think, most likely, he will simply “suddenly” die in prison, because he is already old, and prison is a difficult place, anything can happen, a sudden heart attack. Younger people, like Navalny, for example, die in prison.
In my opinion, perhaps the reason for the arrest is that he knew too much. But in any case, it indicates that we are on the verge of some very serious events.
– The last question is about the strikes on Moscow. Footage taken by Muscovites showing a refinery burning has spread online. In your opinion, do Muscovites and St. Petersburgers, residents of the two Russian capitals, really understand what war is and are they ready for some protests against the “SVO”?
– In my opinion, Muscovites and St. Petersburgers were ready for protests as early as February 25, 2022, and even more so, they went out to them. The only thing that is stopping them now is not that they do not understand what is happening, but the extremely brutal police measures that are being used.
So, I think that some shifts in the elites, their split, will give us a basis for possible protests, because when that happens, the police can stop hitting people in the head with batons. This is very important. When that happens, the street can really become the mechanism that legitimizes that part of the elite that will overthrow the dictator Putin.
If you are part of a mafia, you can find yourself in concrete shoes at the whim of the godfather if it serves him. The reason doesn’t have to be obvious to the casual observer. Many have already experienced the hard truth of the crime syndicate’s methodology.