Sometimes dead serious, sometimes not so much. Welcome to my Substack where I cover politics with a special focus on Ukraine, EU, NATO, and more. An alumna of Lund University with bylines in the FT, New Eastern Europe, Atlantic Council, and more.
By Lesia Dubenko
Some mysteries are just too easy to solve
JUN 09, 2025
I don’t believe in coincidences. And if you’re like me, here’s some food for thought.
Or to be more precise, two countries, not food, — Belgium and Spain.
In 2024, Politico Europe published an article revealing the names of seven countries that oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership. It was hardly groundbreaking: the U.S. and Germany were mentioned alongside Hungary and Slovakia, both highly pro-Russian states with an appetite for cheap Russian gas.
But there were other countries on the list that I was surprised to hear of. Like Spain, Slovenia, and Belgium, states that never really expressed any strong reservations about the matter.
Is this Why Spain, Belgium, and Slovenia Don’t Want Ukraine in NATO?
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21 NOVEMBER 2024
In October 2024, Politico Europe published a report on who opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership. I wouldn’t say that it smacked of originality. All the long-standing opposers of Ukraine’s NATO membership, including the U.S. Germany are well-known. Alongside Hungary and Slovakia that just can’t get enough of Russian gas.
My first thought was, naturally, money. And it proved to be fabulously easy to prove it.
All I had to do was check out the NATO member defence expenditure graph. And there they were: Spain, Slovenia, and Belgium. All severely underspending. With none planning to make much effort despite Washington D.C.’s push for the 5% spending mark, which will further be discussed at the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague.
Enter the recent graph I found while looking for some fossil fuel-related data.
Let’s start by looking at it and admiring the fact that the answer to the chart’s question of “Who bought Russia’s fossil fuels after EU bans?” is, in fact, the EU.
Now isn’t that ironic, heh?
Though claiming that Russia is a direct security threat, the EU continues to fund Russia’s war machine in broad daylight by being the largest purchaser of Russian pipeline gas and LNG. Meanwhile, China, India, and Turkey are likely simply capitalizing on reselling that oil, again, to the EU.
But we’re not here to answer the question of how on Earth it’s possible for the EU to run around screaming that Russia is an existential threat and yet continuing to purchase their fossil fuels.
Common sense isn’t that common. You should know.
We’re here to understand what is it about these three countries that makes them so averse to Ukraine’s NATO membership — despite chances of it ever happening being near zero.
Et voilà!
The second graph dubbed “Who bought Russia’s fossil fuels in April 2025” is our answer.
Not only you find Hungary and Slovakia here, which indeed can’t get enough of Russian gas, but, yes, here the two culprits we’ve been investigating.
With the exception of France, both Brussels and Madrid bought the most Russian LNG in April 2025.
Fabulously easy once again.
And so cynical too.
Because when Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez says that Ukraine can always rely on Spain, the question we must all ask — in which damn way, Señor Sanchez?
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