Hans Petter Midttun

Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies

Dec 31, 2024

Dear Friends,

2025 is shaping up to become one of the most important years of our lifetime. So much is at stake, and we have, unfortunately, not our best men and women at the helm. The war in Ukraine is fast approaching its 11th anniversary as the war continues to escalate. Europe is increasingly concerned about the risk of an open confrontation between Russia and NATO as the Russian hybrid war against the West continues to increase in scale and scope. The Middle East is in flames as Iran and Israel continue to ignore international law. A coalition of autocracies (CRINK – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) has been established in the face of NATO’s loss of credibility. The Alliance struggles to close military vulnerabilities resulting from decades of underfinancing and cutbacks. A right-wing political wave is spreading across Europe in the wake of the ripple effects of a war in Europe. Costs of living are increasing. Food and energy security is at risk. Underwater pipelines and cables are exposed to an unprecedented threat. And if this wasn’t enough, the US “beacon of democracy” is fading.

The last years have truly demonstrated the validity of the words “If you want peace, prepare for war” (Si vis pacem, para bellum). Good intentions, words of concern and inaction do not work against an aggressor willing to use (nearly) all means available to achieve his strategic aim and objectives.

That said, the EU has proven itself invaluable to European security. It has fostered many good leaders. Northern and Eastern Europe are slowly getting their grip together, hopefully uniting in support of Ukraine. I hope the drive for European strategic autonomy will gain momentum next year.

Additionally, NATO will either wake up and realise the need for urgent reform or start the process of establishing an alternative and functional Alliance. The present decision process is no longer sustainable and credible.
It is currently fashionable to say that Ukraine is losing the war based on all the clichés about the invincible “Russian steamroller.” I strongly disagree. Russia will lose the war in 2025.

That’s not to say that the operational situation along the frontline is not critical. It is. The operational situation is, understandably, of great concern.

From a strategic perspective, however, the situation is far more nuanced.
The frontline only represents parts of the battlefield. The war is being fought on land, in the air, at sea, in space, in cyberspace and not least, in the cognitive space. Russia is using both its military and non-military means to achieve its strategic aims and objectives. Russia is on the defensive in most domains. But not all. Not yet.

For Russia to win, it desperately needs to defeat the West in the Cognitive Space. My next article will substantiate an assessment that runs contrary to the general feeling of doom and defeat. When Ukraine wins, Europe also wins.

Happy New Year and Glory to the Heroes. Pray for Ukraine.

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Comment from :

David Nichols

Hans Petter Midttun This New Year’s Eve, I’m thankful for all the light in a dark world and an uncertain future – people and voices that fight against tyrrany and injustice – against a world where the strong prey on the weak and the loudest and cruelest voices that pander to our fears and appeal to our baser nature are considered “strong”.

It’s exactly this that this age of misinformation and realpolitik will bring us unless we in Europe recognize the danger and unite to fight for a better future.

I greatly appreciate your voice as one pushing us in the right direction and look forward to meeting you – ideally in Kyiv – in 2025!

Jeffrey Hilton

Russia is a paper tiger. But the US may very well come to its aid in 2025. European democracies should anticipate a pincer movement between that known quantity in the east, and the newly-minted antagonist in the west. For certain individuals and their wannabes, the spoils are too great a temptation for this not to occur. Plan accordingly.

Anastasiia Gavryliuk

“Russia will lose the war in 2025.” – Agreed!
Thank you! Happy amd victorious new year to you and all the people in the world who value freedom – and actively support the ongoing fight for it! 🤝🇺🇦

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A post from yesterday from Hans:

Solving the root cause of the war

ISW reports that “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly rejected two suggestions reportedly considered by US President-elect Donald Trump’s team in early November 2024 as conditions for ending the war in Ukraine – the delay of Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years and the deployment of European peacekeepers in Ukraine.” Lavrov is amplifying President Putin’s December 26 explicit rejection of the Trump team’s reported suggestion to delay Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years.

“Lavrov stated that any agreements to end the war in Ukraine “must eliminate the root causes” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and “must establish a mechanism to make it impossible to violate them.”

I fully agree. Any agreement to end the war must eliminate the root causes of Russia’s war of aggression. Lavrov and I do, however, not see eye to eye on what are the root causes.

The Russian Foreign Minister is referring to NATO’s so-called eastward expansion and the Ukrainian government’s alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian language, media, and culture. Repeating disinformation, however, does not make it true. The true root cause is Russia. The international community has recognised the war as unjust and unprovoked. It is a Russian war of aggression.

Russia started a war in 2014 to secure its great power ambitions and secure strategic parity with the US and China. The subjugation of Ukraine is a precondition to achieving its strategic aim as it would ensure the Russian Federation the demography, industry, technology, economy and, consequently, the military power needed to establish a hegemony over Europe.

It is not possible to solve the root cause of the war through negotiations. Words will not stop Russia. Its imperial ambitions can only be stopped by military power. I am not suggesting attacking Russia. I am arguing in favour of forcing Russia to withdraw from Ukraine; re-establishing Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders and, crucially, inviting Ukraine to become a NATO member. Only this will effectively deny Russia’s Great Power ambitions.

Ukraine will receive a credible security guarantee, NATO will be strengthened, and Europe will be one step closer to establishing strategic autonomy.

Delaying Ukraine’s membership in NATO will only encourage Russia to intensify its aggressions in Ukraine, the EU and the US.
If we want to solve the root cause of the war, we need to solve Russia. Its Great Power ambitions need to be shot down. Words do not work. We have tried that. Military power will work because it’s the only language Russia understands and respects. It is high time to try that.