Jaanika Merilo

Jaanika Merilo

Head of eHealth Strategy in Estonian Government /…

Published Sep 22, 2024

Happy. Never after.

War criminals – olgarch Konstantyn Malofeev and Hague arrest warranted Maria Lvova-Belova

Two weeks ago, when orthodox czarist oligarch Konstantyn Malofeev married Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova in a white wedding = two war criminals found each other. It only might sound romantic, but this is almost an absurd case in many ways. First of all, both newlyweds are really war criminals. Secondly, they are the personification of Russian hypocrisy. Konstantyn Malofeev is owner of the significant media “Tsargrad” that preaches war, orthodoxy, monarchism, and “traditional values.” Whatever it means. He is as well a putinist and has funded and supported war since 2014 by funding militarised religious groups fighting in Donbas. So of course he has been sanctioned by the US, and so far he is the only precedent when the judge in US has ruled to confiscate private assets and channel the proceedings to Ukraine. Maria-Lvova Belova has a Hague-issued search warrant for stealing at least tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, whom our NGO “Heroiam Slava” is helping to find and bring back. We wish them a “happy never after” and a war tribunal in the Hague.

Crimea can only be Ukraine.

Eyebrows were raised, when, usually a great friend of Ukraine, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Radoslaw Sikorski stated in his public speech in YES conference “ “Crimea is symbolically important for Russia, and especially for (Russian President Vladimir Putin, but strategically important for Ukraine. Therefore, I do not see how they will be able to come to an agreement without demilitarising Crimea. We could put it under a U.N. mandate with a mission to prepare a fair referendum after establishing who the legal residents are and so on… And we could postpone it for 20 years.”

This shows that realpolitik is in action and peace negotiations have started in some way or another.

But there is a “but.” It is almost impossible to negotiate about territories, even for President Volodymyr Zelensky. Firstly, Ukrainian legislation prohibits holding a referendum in just one part of Ukraine. It would take a national referendum and the majority’s agreement to even consider giving up any territory, and Ukrainians are firmly against it. Secondly, giving up any territory would need changes in the Constitution, and these could be made only with ⅔ members of the Ukrainian  parliament saying “yes, let´s do that.” Not going to happen. It would take more than two-thirds of votes because the war has reduced parliament to 401 members and 300 votes are needed to change the Constitution. Thirdly, I do not see it likely that the president would even initiate this kind of vote right now, as Ukrainians are still against territorial compromises.

That leaves us with difficult choices and just a bit of room to maneuver. 

..And Sikorski claimed today that these discussions were off-record and hypothetic. Well, everything that we say can be used against us, so we better say what we mean…As well, this is how negotiations start—off-record, until one day they “become the record.”.

Ukraine blew up Satan?

This week, Ukrainian drones struck three Russian ammo depots. We don’t know what hit them, but it might have been a Ukrainian missile-drone Polyanytsya or a Ukrainian-made short-range missile, that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned a few weeks ago. As I previously covered in my newsletter, Ukraine could produce this kind of weapon.  In total, Ukraine managed to blow up ca. 40 000 tonnes of ammo. Just for understanding, if it had been all 155mm munition, it would have equaled 1.5 months of Russian own production capacity.  But it was not all 155mm ammo; it was also 152mm, Iskanders, and allegedly “brand new 2 tonnes” from North Korea. Was there a ballistic missile, Satan II (RS-28 Sarmat), like Daily Mail covers in one of the warehouses? I doubt they don´t stock ballistic intercontinental missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in this kind of warehouse and so close to the border. 

Two out of three ammo depots were actually quite significant, and the Tihhoretsk ammo depot was considered one of the three biggest near Moscow and quite important for current logistics. The depot was equipped with 2 millions worth of anti-drone radars, and building the whole complex could have cost up to 40 million dollars. Could have, because we will probably never know how much has been stolen as the ex-general from the Russian Ministry of Offence, Dmitry Bulgakov, is arrested with charges of corruption.

However, there are still seven large warehouses within reach of Ukrainian drones, which can easily reach targets up to 700 kilometres away.

The IMF nearly did it again.

A few weeks ago, we were stunned to read that the IMF was planning his first since 2019 mission to Russia. Not only was the IMF planning to conduct this mission under the pretext of a “usual monitoring mission,” but it also accepted Elvia Nabiullina´s former advisor in Central Bank Ksenia Yudayeva, as the new Russian chief. Oh, btw, Yudayeva is under US sanctions.

Significant public dismay from European countries allegedly led to the cancellation of the mission. All eyes on IMF. Any mission of international institutions means continuing as usual, legitimising the occupation, and normalising the war.

Picture of the day

During the last days, at least 3 big Russian weapons and ammo depots somehow exploded. Somehow? Ukraine claims that its drones caused “the incident”. According to Russian governors and the military, it is has always been not drones but drone debris.

So creative Ukrainians decided to name their drone “debris”. Now it is correct by all means 🙂