11/19/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

Since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election , the West has focused on providing Ukraine with military aid as quickly as possible before the new administration comes into office, knowing that it will likely have a very different approach.

There is some confusion in most EU capitals , but the official message is still there – Europe will stand by Ukraine as long as it needs to. This view is particularly strong in Poland, the Baltics and the Scandinavian states.

To resolve the issues, the heads of the EU foreign and defense ministries are discussing aid to Ukraine “under any scenario” on November 18-19, taking into account Trump’s victory and the prospects for relations with the United States under the new administration. The head of the EU diplomatic service, Josep Borrell, who is leaving his post on December 1, called on the European Union to show that it is not scared or paralyzed “like a hare in the headlights” by Trump’s victory. It is difficult to say yet whether the Europeans will succeed in this.

OBOZ.UA reports on how the EU and the US are trying to minimize the Trump factor for Ukraine.

Biden is in a hurry

At a time when most people seemed to have forgotten it existed, US President Biden has belatedly but purposefully crossed Russian dictator Putin’s final “red line.” After months of relentless cajoling, the US has finally given Ukraine permission to use US missiles to strike deep into Russia. The missiles in question are the US ATACMS ballistic missiles, which have a range of up to 300 kilometers. But the permission was most likely only granted for the use of these missiles in the Kursk region, where North Korean troops are stationed. Therefore, it is clear that these weapons will initially be used by Ukrainian forces against Russian and North Korean troops to protect Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region, which makes the permission less effective. In other words, Biden has not so much crossed Putin’s “red line” as probed it with one foot. This is very typical of a president who has so far shown exceptional caution in his relations with the Kremlin.

ATACMS strikes in Kursk are unlikely to change the course of the war, but if Ukraine is eventually allowed to use these missiles more widely, it may at least be able to deter Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure by threatening “retaliatory strikes” on similar targets deep inside Russia.

Biden’s decision, two months before his presidency ends and Donald Trump takes office, is a major shift in U.S. policy. Washington had previously banned strikes on Russia’s rear, fearing that it would lead to a dangerous escalation not only in the region but in Europe as a whole. And now some U.S. officials are still expressing concerns that Ukraine’s use of U.S. missiles on Russian soil could prompt Putin to retaliate against the U.S. and its NATO partners.

Putin will have to react to Biden’s decision one way or another. Earlier, the Kremlin stated that permission to fire Western missiles at Russian territory would mean that these countries would enter the war. But it seems that the Kremlin’s margin of safety for retaliatory strikes due to the crossing of yet more red lines is becoming less and less. The only serious argument that Russia has not yet used against Ukraine is nuclear weapons, but China and other Russian allies from the Global South have made it clear that this should not be done.

In general, since Trump’s victory, the US has focused on providing military assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible before the new administration takes office, knowing that it will likely have a very different approach. To this end, US Secretary of State Blinken made a lightning trip to Brussels, where he met with NATO, EU and Ukrainian officials to develop a strategy for the future and oversaw the increase in aid to Ukraine. And some results have been achieved, at least as evidenced by Blinken’s statement that “NATO will provide military assistance to Ukraine on a scale that will allow it to continue fighting in 2025.”

Germany still no

The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia will do most to encourage France and Britain to do the same with their missiles, while it had “no impact” on German Chancellor Scholz’s refusal to provide Ukraine with Taurus long-range missiles.

“He does not want these weapons to be delivered. This position will not change. There are certain limits for the chancellor,” the German government spokesman said.

The US and Germany, the two largest military aid providers to Ukraine, have closely coordinated their support since fighting erupted in 2022, with Scholz often waiting for the US to make the first move and then following suit. But the chancellor, who has repeatedly refused to send Taurus missiles, citing the risk of escalating the conflict, is unlikely to back down this time. Ahead of Bundestag elections on February 23 next year, he is banking on his slim chances of re-election by declaring that he is the “safe choice” when it comes to preventing the war from spiraling out of control.

Well, the Ukrainians will have to wait until late February 2025, when Germany holds elections. Germany’s likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who leads the center-right Christian Democratic Union and criticized Scholz for refusing to supply long-range missiles to Ukraine, has said he would be willing to do so if he takes office.

Financing Ukraine without US assistance

The possibility that the United States will leave the coalition to support Ukraine under the new president has forced European countries to begin preparing an independent policy to provide further assistance to it.

“I think we need to send a clear signal to the United States and the new administration today that we will support Ukraine as long as it needs to,” said Finnish Prime Minister Peteri Orpo. To this end, EU foreign and defense ministers are discussing aid to Ukraine “under any scenario” on November 18-19, given Trump’s victory in the US elections. The leaders of the Baltic states and some Scandinavian countries said Europe should be ready to increase support for Ukraine if necessary.

Also this week, the EU Foreign Affairs Council will discuss the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said. However, according to the Polish official, “easy solutions” are not expected in this direction.

“There have to be massive decisions made or not made about whether we are ready to assign real funds, for example, frozen Russian assets in support of Ukraine, whether we are ready to give Ukraine, for example, one year to strengthen its negotiating position,” Sikorski said.

Europe must change

Europe can no longer be a “herbivore” after Donald Trump’s re-election, according to French President Emmanuel Macron. Instead, it must become an “omnivore”. Macron is known as Europe’s loudest advocate for the EU to become more independent from trade rivals such as China and the US, on everything from defence and security to advanced technology.

“For me, it’s simple. If we decide to remain herbivores, the predators will win, and we will become a market for them,” Macron noted.

Macron’s leadership of the EU has been shaken by snap elections in France, which his party lost and Le Pen’s far-right won. Trump’s election could give the French leader a new lease on life in pushing his vision of a bolder, more independent EU, particularly on trade and security.

Poland actively calls for saving Ukraine

Before Donald Trump enters the White House next year, Poland wants to create an alliance of European countries and prevent Ukraine from being defeated – this is currently one of the main theses that the authorities of the neighboring country are repeating. First of all, Polish Prime Minister Tusk adds that the next weeks will be decisive not only for the war, but also for the common future. It seems that the shadow of Russia, if Ukraine falls, weighs heavily on our neighbors.

The Polish leader, who interacted with Trump as head of the European Council from 2016 to 2019, does not have a very good opinion of the newly elected American president. For example, he once told a meeting of EU leaders that the American was “stupid” and “on a mission against what we stand for in Europe.”

It is because of these concerns that Donald Tusk is holding talks with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, trying to secure Western support for Ukraine through a European alliance that would include the Nordic and Baltic countries. And his attempt to create an internal alliance on Ukraine is a sign of Europe’s deep concerns about Trump’s policies and his negotiations with Russian dictator Putin.

“We will coordinate cooperation very intensively with countries that have very similar views on the situation in Ukraine. No one wants Ukraine to weaken or even capitulate. This would be a fundamental threat to Poland and Polish interests,” the Polish Prime Minister said.

Before all this, the foreign ministers of Poland, France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Ukraine will gather in Warsaw on November 19 to discuss Ukraine and the political situation in Europe after the election of Donald Trump as US President. As Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski noted, “the most important negotiations on the war in Ukraine will take place in Warsaw in the format of the “Weimar Triangle Plus”.

Trump will put pressure on Ukraine

As for permission to strike, today everything looks like a “half-hearted decision” by the Biden administration, as before. Most likely, we are talking about strikes on Russian territory in the Kursk region. The second point is, will there be French and British long-range missiles? We do not know this yet. Another problem is to what extent our partners will provide Ukraine with these missiles, because it is clear that they are not yet in such quantities as to radically change anything in the war – this opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA by the director of the Center for Defense Strategies Alexander Khara.

“As for Russia’s potential response to Western countries to this decision, it will definitely not be in the form of open aggression,” says Alexander Khara. “It will be cyberattacks, subversive activities, some murders. Attacks on critical infrastructure, which are very important for both defense and the civilian economy of Western countries. Of course, this is what Putin can do. I don’t think he wants a nuclear conflict. Russia is not capable of real escalation, it has already used everything possible – missile strikes and drones. It cannot do more than what it is doing now,” emphasizes Alexander Khara.

According to the expert, the Biden administration was generally preparing for the possible arrival of Trump, primarily by reformatting the work of Ramstein and creating a special structure in Germany that would coordinate the activities of NATO allies in helping Ukraine.

Alexander Khara believes that several areas are relevant for Ukraine today. For example, in the last weeks of Biden’s term, it would be desirable for the Americans to unblock access to $50 billion in frozen Russian assets in the United States. Ukrainians are also waiting for the unblocking of almost 300 billion euros of frozen Russian assets in Europe. If Trump decides to begin resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war by putting pressure on Ukraine and stopping aid, then, of course, Ukraine will need this money to buy weapons from the same Americans, if they do not prohibit it, or from someone else. Unfortunately, so far such intentions are not visible either in Washington for 50 billion, and even more so in the Europeans for 300 billion in frozen Russian funds.

“As for the end of aid from the US under Trump, there is certainly such a threat. As I understand it, Biden’s team really hoped that Kamala Harris would win this election, and that’s why they were in no hurry to spend the money allocated by Congress. Now they are trying to quickly provide Ukraine with everything it needs. Of course, for the current president, this conflict is even personal to a certain extent. For him, from a moral and strategic point of view, it was very important to help Ukraine in the first episodes of the war. Of course, he does not want all his contributions to be lost. He understands very well that in order to quickly end the war, Trump will resort first of all to pressure on Ukraine, which will find it extremely difficult to continue to defend itself without American aid,” says Alexander Khara.

According to the expert, Ukraine must be prepared for several months ahead, while the new administration is being formed, then the first attempts to communicate with the Russians to find common ground. And, of course, during this period it is critically important that the Europeans, if not increase their aid to Ukraine, then at least fulfill what they promised earlier.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/politics-news/uspet-k-trampu-kak-rasteryannyij-zapad-pyitaetsya-sozdat-dlya-ukrainyi-zapas-prochnosti.htm