ROBIN’s Substack
Nov 10, 2024
It is time for Europe to step up and become the world’s leading economic and military bloc. It is clear from recent events that the USA can no longer be relied upon to maintain the umbrella of security that protected us for eighty years. There is no longer a solid cultural foundation that can reassure us that our interests coincide. Next year the USA will be led by an administration that is isolationist and admires authoritarian states like Russia and North Korea.
NATO became fat and flabby after the fall of the Soviet Union. As fear of communism subsided, the costs of defence were drastically reduced across the western world. Intelligence was down graded to a ‘once upon a time status’ until the twin towers disaster of 9/11/2001.
That failure opened the door for an overwhelmingly fearful response to a very small terrorist group known as Al Qaida. That overzealous response led to wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Kurdistan, Israel, and the Arab Spring (amongst others). A frightened USA struck out in anger and hurt its allies almost as much as it hurt its enemies. 9/11 was the first time that NATO was called upon to support a member state that was under attack. The world is always dangerous, but the poorly considered reactions of GW Bush and his government reduced the status of the USA to a level not seen since their defeat in Vietnam.
Except for the first Gulf War, it is difficult to find a convincing American military victory since 1945. However, it has always been the willingness of the USA to invest in defence (and nuclear weapons) that deterred aggression. That deterrence is failing and we in Europe must fill the gap.
We have the skills, people, technology, and we also have the money, especially if we take the frozen $300 billion in Russian assets and use it to manufacture weapons for Ukraine.
After 20th January 2025, the USA can no longer be relied upon to stand up for us the way we stood up for them after 9/11. Trump has told us what he will do. He will withdraw from NATO, betray Ukraine, encourage Russian aggression in Europe. At the same time, he will impose an authoritarian regime on the best people of the USA leaving the greatest states to consider secession. Trump will bring the American Empire down and we must be prepared to stand alone as we did before 1917 when they helped to end the first world war.
Europe must build its military strength by recruiting more men and women. Ending outsourcing and building a self-supporting military that contains all the skills to defend our continent. No more private companies providing drivers, caterers, medics, engineers, tradesmen and so on. Our military should be regarded as an investment in the youth of our nation. This can be achieved by taking tens of thousands of bored young people and providing them with opportunities that will support not only the military but also be a skills engine for the country ten years down the road.
The greatest unifier of peoples is a common foe. Until recently Europe had problems with political insurgents that failed to affect our relative safety. However, we must be genuinely frightened of a Russian success in Ukraine. Putin has maintained his war in the hope of a Trump Presidency. His wish has come true, and as a result we might discover we have either a disinterested friend or a direct enemy at our backs.
States that have an immediate border with Russia or Ukraine are deeply concerned and are preparing for the worst. It is vital that all western nations realise that an emboldened Russia is a threat to the whole of western Europe, democracy, and rule of law.
In Russia there is ‘rule by law.’ Whatever Putin says is law, until a new autocrat takes his place. The USA is about to be ruled by a convicted criminal. When the boss steals the workers will steal. What’s good for the leader is good for all. Law rules in a democracy with the consent of the people. This consent is built on trust of the system. The leadership must be as answerable to the law as the people. Recent events in the USA prove beyond any doubt that this is no longer the case. In 2025 the USA will be ruled by the law of Trump.
It took the Pretorian Guard to remove Caligula, but that is no longer our problem.
We in Europe must double the size of our armed forces.
Offer young people the opportunity of learning trades, skills, positive roles, and self-respect in the service of their country.
Increase manufacturing for the defence of the realm.
Invest in technology and high-tech modern innovations.
Create jobs, create a vison for Europe. We are the best educated, the best fed, the most diverse and civilised continent in the world. We must not bend the knee to Caligula, we need to stand on our own between the Atlantic and the Russian border with friendship in one hand a heavy club in the other.
How frightened do we need to get before we get off our arses and turn our hard-earned riches to defending ourselves?
Who Dares Shares.
Robin Horsfall
“We in Europe must double the size of our armed forces.”
Even that is not enough. The U.K. is currently transforming itself back into the socialist welfare state created by Clem Atlee in 1945. When Churchill returned to power in 1950, he tried to restore it back into the merit-based society it was before, but had only partial success and subsequent Tory leaders were less determined.
“In 1947, in the aftermath of World War II, UK defence spending was 16 percent of GDP, but declined to 6 percent of GDP by 1950. But then came the Korean War, and defence spending increased to 11.2 percent GDP in 1952. Thereafter it declined through the rest of the 1950s to 7 percent GDP by 1959.”
The British Army of the Rhine alone in the 1950’s was immensely capable: 50,000 combat troops armed with cutting edge (for the time) equipment, including tactical nukes. There were in total 5,000,000 servicemen, including 3.2m army soldiers.
Labour’s disastrous transformation of the U.K. into a welfare state led us to where we are now : the smallest armed forces in our history. The new Labour govt says it will increase military spending from 2.2% to 2.5% by 2030. They are living in a dream world: instead of defending us, they are intent on rewarding their feckless voters with even more freebies.
Investing properly in the armed forces keeps us safe, helps our allies and creates millions of superb jobs for skilled workers.
Ukraine must win, must retain its sovereign land and will then become a major power; thanks to its people and its mineral resources.
Even the Romans knew; if you want peace, arm yourself.
What a pile of shit! 🤕🙄🥴😷🤒🤧🤬🤐
I’m being thick Mike. Not sure what you feel isn’t correct. But if you’re suggesting that peace through strength isn’t viable, history has shown countless times where his theory worked.
“How frightened do we need to get before we get off our arses and turn our hard-earned riches to defending ourselves?”
I’m afraid that certain European leaders have a great capacity to absorb even more fear than they already have.