A Russian victory is inching closer thanks to the West’s refusal to provide Ukraine with the right weapons
DEFENCE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS EDITOR
If Nato’s leaders are to draw any lesson from Ukraine’s bitter two-year-long conflict, it is that the alliance remains woefully ill-prepared to deal with the existential threat Moscow poses to its future security.
The military aid Ukraine received from the US and Britain in the early stages of the war undoubtedly contributed to Kyiv’s success in withstanding the initial part of Russia’s “special military operation”, as Vladimir Putin’s invasion in February 2022 was euphemistically termed. The provision of the British Army’s NLAW anti-tank missiles proved particularly effective in helping to thwart the Russian advance on the Ukrainian capital, where Putin aimed to assassinate President Zelensky and establish a pro-Moscow puppet regime in his place.
Nato’s support, especially the supply of long-range missiles, also helped the Ukrainians to achieve several high-profile victories, such as recapturing the strategically important cities of Kharkiv and Kherson towards the end of 2022. Since then, however, a combination of Western dithering, especially on the part of the Biden administration, over responding to Kyiv’s pleas for more weaponry, and Russia’s ability to establish robust defences, including sophisticated electronic warfare systems, has reduced the conflict to stalemate.
The dire predicament Ukraine now faces was reflected in its decision at the weekend to withdraw its forces from the bitterly-contested city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, citing severe ammunition shortages. The loss of Avdiivka, which had served as an important stronghold for Ukrainian forces since Russia initially invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014, is a particularly bitter blow. Ukrainian commanders have warned for months that acute shortages of weaponry, especially the long-range artillery vital to thwarting Russian advances, were seriously undermining their ability to defend the 620-mile long front line.
Ukraine’s weapons crisis is partly the result of the political paralysis in Washington over maintaining support for Kyiv, with an isolationist body of Republicans blocking the Biden administration’s efforts to authorise a new $60 billion aid package. But another key factor is the inability of Ukraine’s allies in Europe – including Britain – to sustain weapons supplies at the same level as at the start of the conflict.
British efforts to provide 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, the most sought-after munitions in the conflict, have been hampered by production issues, with defence manufacturers struggling to make up the shortfall after Britain delivered more than 300,000 of the shells. Years of defence cuts had led to dwindling resupply orders for weaponry, requiring key arms manufacturers to scale down their production lines. Industry experts estimate it could take several years to rebuild UK production to the level needed to sustain a major conflict in Europe against an aggressor like Russia.
The gaps in British arms manufacturing are replicated throughout Europe, where the EU recently admitted that it will not be able to fulfil its pledge to provide Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells by March, owing to a lack of production capacity. By contrast, Russia, where defence spending has now reached an estimated 7.5 per cent of GDP, has enjoyed a major increase in weapons production during the past two years, after Putin ordered industrial leaders to concentrate their efforts on bolstering Russia’s war effort.
Nor is it just in this field that Europe appears singularly ill-prepared to counter any new threat to its security Russia might pose in the coming years.
Another key Ukrainian military requirement – dating back to 2022 – is to be equipped with advanced Western warplanes, such as US F-16s, and more long-range missiles, which will give them the ability to disrupt Russian forces long before they can threaten Ukraine’s frontline defences. Yet, despite numerous offers of advanced pilot training and pledges of around 60 F-16s for Ukraine, the latest Pentagon assessment is that Ukrainian pilots are unlikely to fly F-16 combat missions against Russian targets until at least the end of the year.
Similar delays have hindered the Biden administration’s plans to provide Kyiv with powerful new long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems), which would seriously enhance Ukraine’s ability to defend its forces.
At this rate, and given Moscow’s recent advances on the battlefield, the war could be concluded in Russia’s favour long before this vital Western weaponry sees action, a prospect that should fill European leaders with alarm.
For all their talk of confronting Russian aggression, Ukraine’s faltering military campaign not only serves as an indictment of Europe’s lack of preparedness to address the threat Moscow poses. It will lend Putin encouragement that, as he anticipated when he first decided to invade Ukraine, the West has little appetite for a fight with Russia.
It is essential, therefore, that if a deadly escalation of conflict in Europe is to be avoided, the West redoubles its efforts to provide Kyiv with the weaponry it requires to prevail on the battlefield. Ukraine, after all, is not fighting this war just for its own survival. It is fighting to defend the entire Western alliance.
I have been saying for a long time that the West don’t want Ukraine to win this war. For some reason they are scared shitless of a Ukrainian victory. Despite countless times the drunk Medvedev, or one of the orc propagandists saying Ukraine has to be totally destroyed, along with all Ukrainians, the penny still hasn’t dropped with the jellyfish. Do they think if they give putler a lump of Ukraine, that that will appease him?
I’ve not been a fan of putting NATO troops in Ukraine, but now, I’ve changed that opinion. Anyone who says that they don’t want to escalate and begin WW3, are full of crap. Look at today’s world and compare that against 1938 and what do you see…no difference. The US is playing games while Europe burns and the world totalitarians are forming their own alliance. Hyperbole is the norm today just as it was in 1938. Once again humans have shown that all they do is repeat history. That’s sad
🇺🇦🇺🇦❤️🇺🇸🇺🇸🤧
I have the feeling that this will be the most likely outcome of the war.
At some point the situation will get this bad that there is no other way but to send NATO troops.
I guess that Putin might try something funny in the Baltics or in Poland, there will be a nuclear accident or Kyiv will be in danger.
I think just like WWII, the allies will step in at some point to save the day.
^bert
That was my initial reaction too Sir Cap and it still might happen if putin’s invasion continues for a long time. But, as a Marine once explained to me, this war needs to be seen as Ukraine’s victory, not NATO’s, the West’s or some coalition’s victory.
I guess it depends on what the goal is. To win the war or to defeat putin. Sadly, they are separate questions. putin could survive a loss to NATO, in fact, he would be a hero back home. BUT, putin could not handle a loss to Ukraine. He would never live down the ridicule. I think that is why we just need to arm Ukraine to the hilt and let them go to work and let the world know Ukraine did it and nobody else.
I hear you read you Sir Red. I understand the issue but my God people are dying. How about Seal Team 6 or the SAS just assassinate the son of a butch as he did to Navalny, although I don’t real care about Navalny
“Nato’s support, especially the supply of long-range missiles, also helped the Ukrainians to achieve several high-profile victories, such as recapturing the strategically important cities of Kharkiv and Kherson towards the end of 2022.”
I’m a fan of Con; he’s a Ukraine stalwart. But he means parts of Kharkiv oblast, not the city, which was not occupied by putinaZi filth.
“Ukrainian commanders have warned for months that acute shortages of weaponry, especially the long-range artillery vital to thwarting Russian advances, were seriously undermining their ability to defend the 620-mile long front line.”
The aid-blockers know that also and are now laughing. However the defenders try to dress it up, putler is landing heavy blows on Ukraine, with the crucial help of his agents in the US.
“It is essential, therefore, that if a deadly escalation of conflict in Europe is to be avoided, the West redoubles its efforts to provide Kyiv with the weaponry it requires to prevail on the battlefield. Ukraine, after all, is not fighting this war just for its own survival. It is fighting to defend the entire Western alliance.”
ESSENTIAL. Agreed.
I have never felt so depressed since orcs seemed on the brink of capturing Kyiv the first time around in 2022. There was a miracle then; which is not to detract in any way from off the scale Ukrainian bravery, but another miracle is needed now.
That headline is utter nonsense. It’s plain to see for everybody that Europe did increase its support for Ukraine while the US has stopped all deliveries, which has put the brave defenders at a severe disadvantage. Put the blame where it belongs to, on the shoulders of Trumpists enforcing a deadlock in Congress!
Yes it is Trump’s fault that Europe decided for 30 years to free ride on US taxpayers for defense and allowed their militaries and equipment and stockpiles to atrophy and be depleted. It is Trump’s fault that Europe has waited almost two years after the main invasion and ten years after the annexation of Crimea and Donbas to get seious about upgrading its defense industry production capabilities. It is Trump’s fault that Obama refused to take any serious action to support Ukraine during and after the Crimean annexation. It is Trump’s fault that Biden refused to meet and negotiate directly with the Speaker of the House for nearly a month. It is Trump’s fault that Joe Biden has dithered with yes we willl/no we won’t/yes we will “decisions” and sent way too little/way too late support to Ukraine. It is Trump’s fault that the Biden administration has not and does not want Ukraine to win, they just want Russia to pay the heaviest cost possible.
I think there is plenty of blame to go around in Europe, in Nato, in DC with both parties’ leadership, in Congress, in the Pentagon and yes with partisan politics by both parties willing to allow Ukraine to bleed so they can play one upmanship games to score political points. And yes, to say the least, Donald Trump has not been helpful by not supporting Ukraine.
But somehow on this site many commenters want to politicize it all on one factor/person ignoring the multitude of factors in Europe and US time after time, post after post, screed after screed needlessly dividing US support for Ukraine.