The crisis in the Russian trucking market is deepening due to rising costs, high leasing payments, and weak demand.

It is noted that in the first quarter of 2025, every fifth carrier has already left the Russian market, and by the end of the year, about 15% of companies may go out of business, The Moscow Times reports , citing research by the Russian agency MAResearch.

According to his calculations, in the first half of 2025, the industry’s revenue decreased by 5% due to falling rates, despite a 3.5% increase in physical transportation volumes. Analysts predict that by the end of the year, revenue will be only 1% higher than in 2024 – about 2.63 trillion rubles (last year it grew by 13%, to 2.61 trillion rubles).

At the same time, rates in the large-tonnage transportation segment have been declining since last year. By the beginning of 2025, they fell by an average of 8% for the 100 most popular destinations, according to data from the freight exchange ATI.SU. Along with macro factors, the industry is pressured by weaker consumer demand, stagnation in construction, and a shift in transportation from the market to the captive segment, when cargo owners transport them with their own vehicles.

Captive transportation, according to estimates by Russian logistics company PEK, already accounts for about a third of general cargo (FTL) volumes. According to the forecast of Russian Infoline-Analytika, in 2025 the market for heavy-duty trucking will add no more than 1-1.5% due to weak consumer demand and industrial production.

Small carriers are the first to leave the market – it is difficult for them to cover the increase in costs. The trend will continue until the imbalance between supply and demand in auto logistics is overcome, Russian experts say.

It was previously reported that the slowdown in the Russian economy is not a “managed cooling”, as the Russian government says, but an entry into stagnation. Thus, the World Bank expects that economic growth in Russia will not exceed 1% by 2028. Compared to the June version of the forecast, the expected growth of Russia’s GDP has been reduced from 1.4% to 0.9% this year, from 1.2% to 0.8% next year, and from 1.2% to 1% in 2027.

Author:  Mykola Veres Джерело: https://censor.net/n3578732

(C)THE MOSCOW TIMES 2025