Western media continues to report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, although Kremlin rhetoric and Russian military actions illustrate that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and any settlement that would prevent him from pursuing the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state.
First we hear from Robin Horsfall:
June 15, 2024
A vastly increased chance of a continental war…
The recent ‘proposals’ by Putin for a negotiated ceasefire are an indication of his weakness. Russia never negotiates from a position of strength. If Putin was winning this campaign he would persist and take whatever he wants. Wasting human resources is of no consequence to him, his only aim is, and has always been, the conquest of Ukraine.
Putin has put forward proposals that are typical of a Russian opening gambit. He offers peace in return for total surrender. He wants Ukraine to give him all of Donbas and Crimea, to stop fighting and to promise an end to NATO membership negotiations. He hopes that the value Ukraine places on human life will be enough to at least create disharmony in the Ukarinian or supporting governments.
The recent USA arms package, the G7 acceptance of using frozen Russian assets, the strong position of an expanding NATO, the collapse of Russian gas and oil sales and increasing sanctions are undermining Russian abilities in the front and rear. Putin’s public offer is an indication that his position as leader is weakening.
He can of course continue the war for another year, maybe two, but every day costs him billions in lost revenue, lost manpower and lost industry. Each day of fighting puts a Russian recovery further back. Some economists refer to the recent rise in the Russian economy, but this rise is due to Russian business changing to a war economy. Industries that once earned foreign currency are now earning rubles from a dwindling national wealth fund. This short term policy will bankrupt the nation, possibly within a year.
Ukraine has no choice but to continue the fight, the west has no reasonable choice other than to support them. The alternative would be renewed Russian hegemony over eastern Europe, a loss of confidence in NATO and a vastly increased chance of a continental war.
Putin is weakening, Putin needs a pause. Putin needs his last hope, Donald J Trump to return to power. It is shameful that the world’s leading democracy is the last hope for the world’s most dangerous autocracy. The demise of DJT this November could also create the demise of Putin’s military ambitions.
Putin is weak, pretending to be strong. It is time for the west to increase its support, to maintain the pressure and crush this tyrant once and for all.
Slava Ukraini!
We give our treasure. They give their blood!
Who Dares Shares.
Robin Horsfall
picture icds.ee/putins-speech
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Now let’s see the ISW’s take :
WHY PUTIN REMAINS UNINTERESTED IN MEANINGFUL NEGOTIATIONS WITH UKRAINE
Part of Putler’s “peace” deal is the lifting of all sanctions. Hasn’t Putler said many times that sanctions have made russia stronger? I believe the West should keep adding these sanctions to make russia even stronger.
As usual, everything Mr. Horsfall says is absolutely right. We could already be in a victorious post-war period if we had the right people in the right places. But, we don’t, so we aren’t.