NATO’s ready. Is Biden?
Don’t write off Kyiv, but if Vladimir Putin attacks “any day” under cover of wargames in Belarus starting this week, President Biden will have an instant decision to make.
Ukraine does not want U.S. or NATO ground forces. They’ve already lost 14,000 in the eastern region conflict with Russia and want to fight Russia themselves.
However, Ukraine will need help, fast. U.S. commanders would receive word of a Russian attack in less than five minutes.
Biden’s chaotic response to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan still casts doubt on his skills as commander in chief, and the Obama-era legacy of letting Russia off lightly doesn’t help. There’s no question in my mind that Putin was emboldened by Biden’s Kabul failure to try a max-pressure strategy on Ukraine.
Still, I liked it when Biden on Sunday snapped that “Putin wants things he can’t get.” And his threat on Monday to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline backed up the “economic deterrence” his team prefers.
Here are some of Biden’s choices.
Provide location information on Russian forces. In modern war, soldiers fuse precision position data on the enemy and hand it off to forces authorized to shoot back. Ukraine can use anti-tank and other weapons when it has cuing or targeting data, and NATO can help.
Biden needs to be ready to react with military forces, because Putin is out on a limb.
Brace for a cyber-attack, on the battlefield or across Ukraine. Ukraine may need more help if Putin tries to pull down the Zelenskyy government with disinformation, denial-of-service or cyber heists. NATO’s already helping Ukraine with cyber early-warning.
Set up a no-fly zone over Ukraine and use NATO airpower’s electronic warfare. A no-fly zone should keep Russian combat jets and bombers out of Ukraine’s airspace, so they can’t provide cover to invading forces. NATO planes can also use electronic warfare to garble Russia’s tactical command and control, breaking links with Russian target-spotting drones, for example. It’s especially important if Russia fires heavy artillery over the border to shell Ukrainian forces, like in 2014.
Neutralize Russian air defenses. Russia already had vicious mobile air defenses in Crimea and moved others to Belarus for exercises. But, as Putin knows, NATO aircraft can employ high-speed anti-radiation missiles and other tactics to make Russia very reluctant to switch air defense radars on. Don’t forget U.S., British and French aircraft blew right past Russian air defenses in Syria when striking chemical weapons targets in 2018.
Authorize Ukraine’s forces to call in U.S. and/or NATO airstrikes on Russian tanks, artillery and other military assets. The U.S., Canada and others have trained selected Ukraine forces as air controllers who can call in airstrikes following strict rules of engagement. It’s a quick step to make a torrent of NATO strike aircraft available. Russia likes to encircle cities then lob in artillery or airstrikes, as they did in Syria. That won’t work if Russia does not control the air.
Prepare for refugees. The worst-case scenarios could drive refugees into NATO members Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania that border Ukraine. Caring for them would strain airlift and political attention.
Biden needs to be ready to react with military forces, because Putin is out on a limb. According to their own doctrine, Russia doesn’t exactly want to invade, they’d prefer to scare Ukraine and NATO enough to get Biden to cave on several demands.
One NATO analysis from 2019 found “Russia uses big wargames and deployments to borders to intimidate. … By demonstrating the ability to mass combat forces quickly along a border, these drills aim to instill fear and doubt among target populations and their governments.” And if that doesn’t work?
Russia is well-placed for a quick strike, but knowing that the U.S. and NATO could send rapid help to support Ukraine’s ground forces might make Putin think twice.
Russia is using the build-up to coerce Ukraine and the West. Biden must make Putin realize the U.S. and NATO are vigilant and ready to push back – that’s the clearest way to deter.
Biden lived through the Cold War and Soviet brinksmanship. It’s time for him to shed the smiling, gabby senator persona and channel President John F. Kennedy in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis; Biden was 19 then. I’m sure he remembers that it took cold courage, a naval blockade and massive U.S. airpower near Cuba to bring that crisis to an end.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM REBECCA GRANT Rebecca Grant is a national security analyst based in Washington, D.C. She earned her Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics at age 25 then worked for RAND and on the staff of the Secretary of the Air Force and Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Since founding IRIS Independent Research, she has specialized in research for government and aerospace industry clients ranging from analysis of military campaigns to projects on major technology acqusition such as the B-21 bomber. Follow her on Twitter at @rebeccagrantdc
Original article with videos etc:
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/bidens-6-instant-decisions-russia-invades-ukraine-rebecca-grant
“Set up a no-fly zone over Ukraine and use NATO airpower’s electronic warfare. A no-fly zone should keep Russian combat jets and bombers out of Ukraine’s airspace, so they can’t provide cover to invading forces. NATO planes can also use electronic warfare to garble Russia’s tactical command and control, breaking links with Russian target-spotting drones, for example. It’s especially important if Russia fires heavy artillery over the border to shell Ukrainian forces, like in 2014.”
This should be done right now.
It was great to see a really helpful article from Fox, which employs two of the most loathsome putler shills in western media: Laura Ingraham and Fucker Karlsonov. The latter of whom is the worst type of Russian agent: one who supports fascist Russia for ideological, not monetary reasons. Personally I’d string him up for working for the interests of a foreign fascist power.
You get triggered so easily. Perhaps we should avoid posting from Fox News because 0.002% of their staff is pro Russia just like every other staff on earth?
This is an excellent article and well thought out.
The problem is most of the things suggested in this article that the U.S.A. or NATO should do are acts of war by themselves.
Surely it is only an act of war if it takes place on the enemy’s territory?
Rather a reaction of war because NATO and Ukraine have always been in defensive posture, it is the rabid Putinazis that are the aggressors.
Then I guess Poland started WW2. Russia is already at war with Russia as Russia has already invaded Ukraine. The first act of war was Russia’s and they have no right to complain when it comes back to bite them.
In as much as the article presents a wonderful list of defensive actions, does anyone really believe Germany would let NATO use its resources at the expense of their dependence on Russia to prevent Ukrainian deaths. Or Macron who seems to be more interested in determining the length of Putin’s ass by inserting his nose. Or the US who despite having an economy say 5x the size of UK and only provided 1/3 that of the UK in military support. IMHO such military support could come from unilateral support from our friends the UK, Poland and the Baltic states.
I’d really like to understand why NATO provided support in places like Syria but won’t support Ukraine, a country in their back yard, an ally who supported various NATO initiatives and wants a democracy rather then a Putin world of autocracy. I just don’t get it. What am I missing?
Only assholes get support. Ex-nazis (Germany, France, Croatia), islamists (Afghanistan, Turkey, Pakistan), zionists (Israel), and drug dealers (Columbia, Mexico). Ukrainians are white christian trash, people our elites hate with every fiber of their bodies. So, no chance.
All those suggestions are viable, imperative and righteous. However … we have a Joe Biden in the Yellow House and not a Ronald Reagan in the White House.