Rishi Sunak’s call for a July 4 UK general election adds one of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters to the list of more than 60 nations going to the polls in 2024.
May 23, 2024
Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stands at a lecturn as he delivers a speech to announce July 4 as the date of the UK’s next general election, at 10 Downing Street in central London, on May 22, 2024.(Photo by BENJAMIN CREMEL / AFP)
2024 has been described as THE year of elections, with over 60 nations, plus the European Union, representing almost half of the world’s population going to the polls this year. With the surprise call for elections by Rishi Sunak, the UK’s Prime Minister, on Wednesday, May 22, Britain now joins those which could have the most significance for Ukraine’s war against Russia – November’s US Presidential and June’s EU elections.
The announcement immediately set the media world alight with speculation on what effect the expected change of government in the UK would have on a whole range of policy issues.
Most commentators assume that the opposition socialist Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is likely to win and form the new government. Labour has diametrically opposed views to the ruling Conservative “Tory” Party on a whole host of issues such as the economy, taxation, climate change, the National Health Service, and welfare provision; to name but a few.
On the face of it, there is equanimity on most foreign policy and defense issues, in general, and support for Ukraine, in particular. The government’s strong support of Ukraine, which has been maintained since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, has been generally echoed by the Labour opposition and there is little to suggest either will change that view in the short term.
Not only do most British politicians seem to feel there is a moral obligation to Kyiv, but from a political standpoint, the UK’s leading “cheerleader” role has given it a prominent voice among the more positive defense stance taken by the EU and its constituent nations because of the war.
Nevertheless, Labour’s publicly stated position on defense issues supports Sunak’s announced intention to increase UK defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2030. Starmer has caveated that, however, by saying he wants to see a fully funded plan on how the target figure will be reached and, more importantly, what other areas of fiscal policy will need to be sacrificed to reach that figure.
The possible influence of some of the more minor opposition parties also needs to be factored in, in the event of the need to form a coalition as the Tories had to in 2010. The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and the Scottish National Party (SNP), who could become government partners, while currently seeming to support aid for Ukraine, all strongly oppose British military interventions abroad and oppose the retention of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent.
As the war in Ukraine drags on and if it is seen to increasingly slide into stalemate, then the pressure to divert funding from defense-related expenditure to tackling social issues (of which there are many) may grow and that could impact the financial and military support the UK can offer Ukraine.
In the short to medium term, however, London is unlikely to take a step back and, in any event, the outcome of the US presidential election and the views of the 450 million EU electorate have the potential for a greater impact on continuing international support for Ukraine.
Steve Brown
After a career as a British Army Ammunition Specialist and Bomb Disposal Officer, Steve later worked in the fields of ammunition destruction, demining and explosive ordnance disposal with the UN and NATO. In 2017, after taking early retirement, he moved to Ukraine with his Ukrainian wife and two sons where he became a full-time writer. He now works as a senior writer and English language editor with the Kyiv Post.
Labour has a 20 point lead, so it appears to be a walk in the park for them. Rishi needs a miracle. However, Labour’s support will drop once the reality of its tax and spend policies starts to solidify with the voters.
The shadow F.Sec, David Lammy, has stated that their Ukraine policy will remain broadly the same as the Tories, despite disagreeing with them on everything else. Leader Sir Kier Starmer has met Zel a couple of times and expressed warm support.
But there are dangers. Labour, being a crypto-Marxist party has tankies amongst its MP’s. We’ll only know what their strength is after the election, when lots of new MP’s will turn up.
A Labour-LibDem coalition would spell bad news because the Libs are pacifists essentially.
Better for Ukraine by a long way if Rishi can win.
Well, that their Ukraine policy will remain about the same as the Tories sounds promising. Let’s hope for the best, which is a Tory win, but, if not, that this statement is true.