For sure the Kremlin is sending fewer tanks to the battlefield. It could be they’re saving tanks for a big offensive. It could be FPV drones have pushed Russia to the bottom of its tank barrel.
Mar. 26, 2025
The Ukrainian first-person-view (FPV) drone hit the Russian tank and exploded. It was a commonplace incident of the Russo-Ukrainian War that is becoming less common.
These days, on Ukraine’s battlefields, there are fewer Russian tanks to hit.
The Ukrainian drone regiment Achilles, a strike unit deployed to the war’s Kharkiv sector, on March 19, published a video of an FPV drone zeroing in on a Russian T-72 tank and impacting near the base of the tank’s cannon.
It was grainy video showing signs of jamming, but the parent formation, Joint Forces Group Khortytsia, evaluated the strike as a kill and praised Achilles’ pilots and support crew for a job well done.
In February (on the 11th, to be precise), Ukraine’s Army General Staff (AGS) announced Kyiv’s troops had passed a significant statistical milestone, and registered their 10,000th enemy tank claimed destroyed in combat.
Most analysts estimate that two out of three Russian tanks, on average, have been taken out by a Ukrainian drone. The Achilles strike in March added one more tank to the figure.
Independent observers like the Oryx Group, mostly using photographic evidence, say they can confirm about 3,800 of the Ukrainian claims, and that the actual figure could be much more.
At the outset of the war, according to Ukrainian army kill claims, the Russian military lost about 750 tanks just in the first three months of fighting – a figure tripling the number of tanks in the entire British Royal Army.
Given the destruction, an approaching end to Russian tank supplies has been predicted for some time. Forbes magazine, in April 2024, going so far as to headline “The Clock Is Ticking: Russia Has a One-Year Reserve of Weapons.”
But observers say the pace of Russian tank losses recently has slowed dramatically. The authoritative WarSpotter group put Russian tank losses from January-March 2025 at 133 vehicles, a pace of tank demolition less than one-fifth that at the start of the war.
Independent analyst research is pointing to an increasing Kremlin reluctance, or inability, to field tanks on the battlefield in as big numbers as in the past. According to an analysis published by the open source researcher Cyrus on Sunday, Russian daily tank losses peaked in April-May 2024 and have been tailing off since then.
By March 2023, the number of tanks confirmed taken out by all means over the month, per that independent research, were about 20% (25 vehicles) of what was lost by the Russian military 11 months previously (120 vehicles).
Trending downwards: This analysis of confirmed Russian tank losses published by the open-source researcher Cyrus, on Sunday, found that the Kremlin willingness or ability to field tanks on the battlefield hit a peak in April-May 2024. Based on numbers of Russian tanks independently confirmed damaged, destroyed, captured or abandoned, that trend accelerated in October 2024. By March 2023, the number of tanks confirmed taken out by all means over the month was about 20% (25 vehicles) of what was lost 11 months previously (120 vehicles).
Kill claims by Ukraine’s military, which typically are two or three times confirmed loss figures (but are, according to Army General Staff (AGS) spokesmen, always cross-checked by drone footage or ground patrols) show a similar pattern of fewer tanks being hit than before.
According to AGS’ official monthly claimed kill figures, Ukrainian troops in March 2025 destroyed about half the number of Russian tanks they did in March 2024 (192 vs. 376).
Field reports from Ukrainian combat units are telling much the same story: Troops are seeing fewer Russian tanks committed to attacks, leading to fewer Russian tanks destroyed. Eyewitness accounts tell of a Russian shift in tactics that, instead of tanks, now prefers light armored vehicles or even civilian automobiles or motorcycles to heavy armor for an assault.
Ukrainian drone operators say this probably is because Ukrainian robot aircraft usually dominate the airspace over a battlefield and target tanks first, which has forced the Russian army to attack with lighter, faster vehicles, or on foot. Russian soldier accounts, both by prisoners of war and by combatants, say much the same thing.
The Icelandic researcher, Ragnar Gudmundsson, and other researchers have observed another trend: not only are the raw numbers of Russian tanks attacking falling, the types of tanks making the assault seem less and less to have been drawn from Russian tank reserves.
A Tuesday analysis of daily Russian losses by Gudmundsson found that, over the course of the war, only a fraction (25-30%) of tanks fielded by the Russian army have been relatively modern T-80 or T-90 models while the lion’s share (50-70%) are mid-Cold War-era T-72 tanks, or early Cold-War-era T-62 tanks, or even museum piece T-55 tanks pulled from mothballs and sent to the battlefield.
This graphic, published by the Icelandic researcher Ragnar Gudmunsson, tracks Russian tank losses by type from February 2022 through February 2025. Losses of older tanks held in reserve, like the late Cold War-era T-72 and the early Cold War-era T-62 and T-54, appear to have decreased relentlessly over the past 12 months, pointing to a potential thinning out of Russian reserve tank stocks.
Over the past six months the relative numbers of older tanks participating in Russian attacks has contracted sharply, pointing to diminishing Russian tank reserves or increased Kremlin unwillingness to send reserve tanks into combat, that data showed.
The OSINT researcher Richard Vereker, in March comments, said availability of Russia’s mainstay T-72 tank model appeared to be plummeting. “Russian tank losses, as a percentage of total losses, are showing an unusual pattern, with T-80s now accounting for two-thirds of this month’s losses. However, total tank losses have been down for a few months, so perhaps the bigger question is where the T-72s are?” he said in a March 20 “X” comment.
Kyiv Post researchers have, along with Vereker and other observers, noted a parallel trend of falling numbers of Russian tanks lost relative to other combat vehicles, another possible indicator of a growing Russian tank shortage, but at least theoretically, possible evidence of more Russian light armored vehicles becoming available for battle.
Britain’s International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in a February 2025 study called Russian tank losses “staggering.” Equipment remaining in storage is highly likely to be run down, poorly maintained, and possibly rusted beyond usability – all of which may make it difficult for Russia to deliver enough equipment to offset attrition rates in coming months, the group concluded.
“The IISS estimates that last year, Russia refurbished and built more than 1,500 MBTs [main battle tanks] and around 2,800 IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles] and APCs [armored personnel carriers]. Equipment remaining in storage is highly likely to be in a deteriorated condition, which may make it difficult for Russia to deliver enough equipment to offset previous attrition rates,” the report said in part.
Khortytsia Group spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov, in late February comments to Radio Liberty, said that Ukrainian drone swarms, particularly FPV drones, had forced the Russian military to reduce the amount of armored vehicles it was fielding, and that kill rates are falling because fewer and fewer Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles seem willing to drive out into the open. “There is a certain tendency of exhaustion of the Russians. I’m not saying that Ukrainians [aren’t tired and] have some kind of second, third, one hundred and five hundredth breath,” Trehubov said. “But the Russians have really begun to experience a certain physical, moral, and materiel exhaustion. It exists, it’s noticeable.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/49582
“It could be they’re saving tanks for a big offensive.”
NO WAY! There is no way that the cockroaches are saving tanks for anything.
And, even if they were, which I highly doubt, this would not go unnoticed.
For all practical purposes, we have witnessed the virtual end of tank warfare in this war. This is a drone war.