The Russian authorities seem to be seriously considering the possibility of tough Western sanctions, which are being prepared in an even of an invasion of Ukraine.
According to the news outlet The Bell, Russian state-owned companies and large banks carried out a series of exercises to assess the consequences of the sanctions, including the shutdown of SWIFT and foreign software, a ban on the supply of chips and other high-tech equipment to Russia.
Top managers of the main sectors of Russian economy and financial institutions reported on the results of the inspection at government meetings, which were held by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, three sources close to the Russian government told the newspaper.
Among the state-owned companies, there were the Russian Post, the national airline Aeroflot and Russian Railways.
The results were disappointing. “Everyone was upbeat while reporting, but between themselves they admit, it’s a catastrophe,” the source told The Bell.
In particular, if restrictions are imposed on the conversion of the Russian ruble into the U.S. dollar, euro and the British pound, Russian banks will “definitely have a problem with the refinancing the foreign debt,” warned one of the interlocutors.
According to the Russian Central Bank, as of January 1, the foreign debt of Russian credit institutions amounted to $ 79.8 billion, and over the past year it has grown for the first time in 7 years – by $ 7.7 billion.
The total foreign debt of the economy has reached $478.1 billion , of which $62.5 billion is a direct public debt (loans and bonds issued directly by the government).
Technology sanctions are just as problematic, though officials and bankers are hoping for help from China, particularly Huawei.
“In terms of infrastructure, we only count on Chinese contractors, specifically on Huawei” a source at one of the major banks told The Bell. According to him, no one insists, but this is a recommendation that “should be taken into account in the current conditions.”
As for SWIFT, the Russian financial system is helpless. The national analogue – Bank of Russia’s system for transfer of financial messages (SPFS) launched in 2016 – will be able to handle only domestic payments, while cross-border operations will be practically paralyzed, experts of the Russian Institute of International Finance believe.
The fact is that only a few foreign banks became members of the SPFS, and there will be no one who can service cross-border payments. Hopes for China’s help in this case didn’t materialize. Only one Chinese bank, the Bank of China, joined the Russian interbank payment system.
Private Chinese companies have always complied with the US sanctions, and it is hardly worth expecting that this time it will be different, warns the head of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov.
“China’s state-owned companies, of course, will continue to work with Russia. But Chinese business does not want trouble in American market, it is much more important for private Chinese business. It’s a different volume, a different relationship. This is a pure business, nothing personal,” the expert explained.
(c) UAWire
The results were disappointing. “Everyone was upbeat while reporting, but between themselves they admit, it’s a catastrophe,” the source told The Bell.
Instead of Macron & co poncing around in Moscow making Putler look important, slam these little sanctions on now, then negotiate there removal. Start with Muscovy removing their trash from Crimea and Donbas, if they do, partially remove sanctions, if not, increase them. It’s not rocket science, just takes a little spine.
But instead we have Germany going to see Mr. Magoo and trying to insert German exceptions in sanctions legislation. Shameful. Germany is not willing to suffer a mosquito bite to help harness Putin’s fascism.
It would appear that the degenerate savages that run that benighted land have decided to prepare for a full scale invasion. They have factored in the high death toll both to themselves and their victims and they don’t care.
It means that the allies must sent air power and ground troops now.
Commenters here should refrain from gung-ho stuff like “bring it on” or “welcome to the meat grinder.”
There will be horror on a terrible scale if it goes ahead.
I doubt dead Russians even factor into Putin’s plans. He controls the media 100%, he can claim not one single soldier died, who would contradict him?
Their mamas.
Thank you, Sir.
The allies will do nothing but continue blowing warm air, even as mafia tanks roll across Ukraine.
Thank you for your advice on how to speak correctly in the face of fascism but I will not despair and submit to the invaders. I have family in this fight so I appreciate your advice but I take offense of anyone trying to tell me what to do or say. Americans are like that, friend, especially this one.
I would politely request that you read my reply to facts on the article titled :
“Putin afraid to start war in Ukraine, claims Kremlin critic.”
The West has it in its hands to make mafia land’s economy do a Soviet Union number … evaporate. It’s high time to start doing so.