07/4/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
During the visits of Western leaders to China, Russian propagandists examine, as if under a microscope, the alleged ceremonial humiliations, comparing them with how the Russian delegation is received. It seems that it is the turn of the Russian dictator Putin to be slapped.
It happened during the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which took place on July 3-4 in Kazakhstan. After all, unlike the leader of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, who was personally met by the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev at the plane’s ramp, and in whose honor a mini show was held with the participation of military aircraft that reproduced the colors of the Chinese flag in the sky, Putin was met at the airport only by the Prime Minister.
But this should not worry Russia, but the fact that China, despite the declaration of “unfathomable friendship” that has never existed, actually pushed it out of the historical zone of influence in Central Asia (CA). Moreover, he did it quite aggressively, despite Russian interests. The growing presence of China is increasingly visible in the region.
Many contracts worth tens of billions of dollars have been signed between China and the countries of Central Asia in recent years, which was unprecedented. New railway lines are being built bypassing the Russian Federation, trade and investment volumes are growing. China provided 3.72 billion free of charge to the countries of the region, demonstrating who is currently the main patron of these states. China also expressed its readiness to work with the main country of the region, Kazakhstan, “to build a Chinese-Kazakh community with a common destiny.” It seems that after this, the Chinese “single fate” awaits other Central Asian countries as well, with the complete destruction of Russian influence .
About how Russia is losing its influence in the territory of Central Asia, which is being taken over by China, is in the OBOZ.UA article.
No one is interested in a weak Russia
Currently, the countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are trying to preserve their sovereignty and balance between Russia, China and the West. Having shown its inadequacy and weakness, Moscow hinted to everyone: no one can be safe with such a neighbor. At the same time, the countries of Central Asia also understand: the Russian Federation is becoming an increasingly threatening and toxic partner .
For Russia, neighboring states can be either enemies or vassals. It was always like that. The countries of this region understand this very well, and that is why they are increasingly trying to get out of the Russian sphere of influence. This became especially noticeable after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Central Asian states did not support the Russian Federation and step by step are moving away from Moscow.
For its part, Russia is still trying to keep them “on the hook”, but it is becoming more and more difficult for it to do so. After all, there is a war that is exhausting Russia and does not allow it to act actively elsewhere. There is the factor of China, which increasingly actively begins to compete in this region, which (given the weakness of the Russian Federation) already considers its own. And the Kremlin cannot do anything against the Chinese, because it is dependent on Beijing.
China takes advantage of the weakness of the Russian Federation
Relations between China and Russia are at a “historical high”, say propagandists of both countries. However, in Central Asia, the friendship between Moscow and Beijing collides with the latter’s global ambitions .
China skilfully uses war to destroy the traditional spheres of influence not only of the West, but also of Russia. The dependence of the Russian Federation on the PRC in supporting the Russian economy and military-industrial complex afloat in the conditions of Western sanctions forces it to agree with Chinese encroachments in Central Asia. The huge gap between the economic power of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China makes direct competition in this strategic region useless for the Kremlin.
The visit of the Chinese leader to Kazakhstan for the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and visit to Tajikistan is the eighth visit to Central Asia since Xi Jinping became the President of the People’s Republic of China in 2013.
Beijing is pulling local economies across the region into its orbit. One of the most important projects that increase the Chinese presence and limit Russian interests is the construction of a railway financed by the PRC, which promises to connect the region to Europe, bypassing Russian territory. China implements this direction together with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan .
The railway line will be part of China’s global initiative “One Belt One Road”. The agreement on the project, which Beijing, Bishkek and Tashkent have been discussing for 27 years, was signed by the parties on June 6 in Beijing, and construction is scheduled to begin in October 2024. The 454-kilometer railway is designed to connect the railways of China and Uzbekistan through the territory of Kyrgyzstan, and further through Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey to connect them with the European railway network within the New Silk Road transport system.
Therefore, Russia’s position in the region is gradually weakening – so much so that it does not hide its irritation, but it is no longer able to stop this process.
Political influence through the economy
Beijing is shifting the balance by using its vast economic potential to increase political influence. In 2023, the trade volume between China and Central Asia will increase to 98 billion dollars, more than three times compared to 2016. Beijing is particularly active with its New Silk Road project. Central Asia is becoming an increasingly important transport corridor for China.
In May 2023, a two-day summit “China – Central Asia” was held in the city of Xi’an, by the way, in the former capital of the Great Chinese Empire, where the Great Silk Road began. The presidents of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan took part in it.
Then, greeting his colleagues, Xi Jinping said: “After the summit, the relations between China and the countries of Central Asia will enter a new era.” He called the region “the center of the Eurasian continent, which is located at the crossroads of roads connecting east and west, north and south,” and said Beijing intends to build a “community with a shared future” with CA.
To date, Beijing has developed an action plan to encourage Central Asia to cooperate . Thus, Chinese projects in the field of renewable energy help reduce dependence on Russian gas. China is putting significant resources into many investment projects and also plans to help reduce poverty in the region. Chinese-funded enterprises are creating new jobs, and Beijing directly has provided $3.72 billion in free aid to its partners. The country also plans to update bilateral investment agreements and increase the volume of cross-border cargo transportation with the region and launch a special railway connection.
China and Uzbekistan agreed on the development of electronic commerce. During the last meeting at the level of governments, agreements on the implementation of priority projects worth $15 billion were signed.
In Uzbekistan, the most densely populated and fairly industrialized country, in 2023 China displaced Russia from the first place of trading partners .
China and Tajikistan signed an agreement on the digital economy and several infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars.
Kazakhstan – “derusification” of society and economy
Kazakhstan has long become the most important country in the region thanks to its natural resources and trade routes. In recent years, this country has increasingly distanced itself from the Kremlin. Despite participating in the CSTO (a collective security treaty organization that also includes Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan), Astana refuses to help Putin in his war against Ukraine . According to the Gallup poll, disapproval of the actions of the Russian leadership among Kazakhs increased from 20% in 2021 to 50% in 2023 .
Kazakhstan has good reasons to be as far away from Moscow as possible. The north of the country is home to ethnic Russians, who make up about a fifth of the country’s population and are quite pro-Russian. Taking advantage of this, the Russian Federation is adding fuel to the fire and recently alluding to these territories more and more often.
With this development, Astana has been making attempts at de-Russification over the past few years, promoting the increased use of the Kazakh language, abandoning the Cyrillic alphabet, and spreading the idea of identifying Kazakhstan as an independent nation . It was also decided to increase the volume of television and radio broadcasting in the state language to 70%.
“Derussification” also applies to the economy. So, in 2024, the Kazakh authorities will hold a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant, which will decide who will build the station. Initially, it was planned that Rosatom would handle this project. But given the events in the world and the sanctions against Russia, the executor will be a company from another country.
The Kremlin is at a dead end
“Today it is already clear that the Russian Federation is losing its influence everywhere in the world, in particular in strategic Central Asia. China has been active in the region since the late 1990s. Today, for example, Kazakhstan, where the SCO summit is held, is already the main trading partner not Russia, but China. In other words, step by step, China is increasing its presence and influence in the region, without looking back at the Russian Federation,” said Ukrainian diplomat Ihor Dolgov, who headed the Ukrainian embassies in Germany and Turkey, in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA. of Belgium and Georgia, the mission of Ukraine to NATO, and was also deputy minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine and deputy minister of defense of Ukraine.
“The PRC is primarily interested in the use of raw materials of the countries of Central Asia, as well as the rather large markets of these countries, which China, as we can see on the example of Kazakhstan, is actively entering. So, the interest is mutual, it is justified. Of course, in this regard, Russia recedes into the background, because it has nothing to offer,” he notes.
According to Igor Dolgov, what was announced about “lifelong friendship” between Beijing and Moscow does not mean that the PRC cannot “love” someone else and be friends with someone else, in particular at the expense of Russia’s interests. Where possible, China will use its advantages and act in its interests.
“Actually, one of the elements of the real displacement of Russia is the future launch of a transit transport route, the Trans-Caspian, through the territory of the countries of Central Asia, Turkey and on to Europe. This is a clear demonstration of the Chinese position regarding Russian interests in the region, because
the route will bypass the territory of the Russian Federation and will a direct competitor of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the transportation route through the territory of the Russian Federation.
Friendship with China, yes. There are interests in Central Asia, yes. But they cannot admit that China has the same, or even greater, interests. Stand in a pose and say, saying: China, you don’t come here, this is our land? Putin cannot afford that, especially now, when he depends both politically and economically on Beijing. Therefore, he has no choice but to accept reality. Today, it is such that
Russia is objectively losing ground,” Ihor Dolgov noted.
It makes sense, what this article is trying to say. As china expands and fortifies its influence in Central Asia, mafia land’s prominence is fading like a wisp of fog in the morning. The problem for mafia land is that it can’t do anything at all about it. It has its hands full in Ukraine. Very full. All efforts must be focused on not losing the war.
Xi doesn’t have a leash around the runt’s neck, it’s a noose.
“After all, unlike the leader of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, who was personally met by the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev at the plane’s ramp, and in whose honor a mini show was held with the participation of military aircraft that reproduced the colors of the Chinese flag in the sky, Putin was met at the airport only by the Prime Minister.”
Tokarev knows who is the boss in the region, and it’s not the mafia rat.
Clearly, for the umpteenth time, the West must remove its economic dependencies on china.
Not sure if this is good for the countries bordering russia, or not. Being a vassal to either russia or China is hardly ideal, but if this humiliates putler, all the better. This makes his whining about russian geopolitical interests, look rather lame as one of his excuses to invade Ukraine.
Right now, anything that puts mafia land in the shade is a good thing, even if it’s china looming over it.
It looks like Xi learned from Trump, be nice in public and then screw him when he turns around.
Trump is in favor of surrendering the occupied territories to RuSSia, like myself, do you support this? Remember, you banned me for my statements not too long ago. 😎
Putin also wants Ukraine to be demilitarized itself before any ceasefire. I thought the reason he invaded Ukraine was to demilitarize it himself.
How many times has he ratcheted down his goals already? 😂
If it carries on like this, he might say no ceasefire until Russia is demilitarised. 😂
Which is happening anyway. 😉