“A powerful crisis is unfolding.” Russian stocks fell by 2 trillion rubles in two days after Trump’s tariffs and oil collapse

The Russian stock market has suffered its worst week in two and a half years amid Donald Trump’s decision to impose record import duties in 100 years and a collapse in oil prices, hit by the OPEC+ decision to sharply increase production .

Over two days, the capitalization of the Moscow Exchange stock market fell by 2 trillion rubles, according to exchange data: at the end of trading on Wednesday, it was 55.04 trillion rubles, and by Friday evening it was already 53.02 trillion. The Moscow Exchange Index, which includes securities of 43 of the largest companies, lost 8.05% over the week, showing the worst result since the end of September 2022, when the market was gripped by panic due to mobilization.

According to the results of trading on Friday, Sberbank fell by 5.2%, Gazprom by 4.9%, VTB by 6%, Rosneft by 3.9%, and Lukoil by 4.6%. Mechel shares lost more than 7%, Aeroflot quotes fell by 4.8%, and Novatek by 5.4%.

“A powerful crisis is unfolding before our eyes,” says Evgeny Kogan, an investment banker and professor at the Higher School of Economics. Trump’s tariffs are radically changing the rules of the game in global trade and promise the world economy its third recession since the beginning of the century: JPMogran analysts estimate its probability at 60%.

Against this background, raw materials are rapidly becoming cheaper: the price of Brent oil has fallen by 12% in two days and at the peak of the sell-off reached $64.06 per barrel, the lowest level since April 2021. Copper futures have fallen by 11% in two days. US stock indices lost 5% on Thursday and the same amount on Friday. Friday’s European stock exchanges ended with a 4-5% collapse after China announced retaliatory duties of 34% on all American goods. For

the Russian economy, global trade wars promise a drop in commodity prices, an increase in import prices and a new round of inflation, lists Veles Capital analyst Elena Kozhukhova.

Cheap oil also means budget problems and could bring a fall in the ruble in the coming months, warns Kogan: “Progress in peace talks could save the situation, but it is not yet in sight.”

The trip to Washington by RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev, which took place after Trump threatened tough sanctions against Russian oil, did not bring a breakthrough. The US is ready to wait a few more weeks, not months, and “the clock is ticking,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after a meeting with Dmitriev.

Since mid-February, when Russian-American negotiations started, Gazprom has already fallen by 30%, Norilsk Nickel by 25%, and Rosneft by 28%. And margin calls have probably begun on the market, Kogan does not rule out.