Oct. 11, 2025

At least 57 Russian regions experienced fuel supply disruptions following Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, according to the BBC .  The problems were primarily observed at independent gas stations. The publication included all cases reported since August, even if the situation locally has stabilized.

According to Bloomberg, attacks have affected every third oil refinery in Russia. At least 14 attacks were recorded in August, eight in September, and four more in the first ten days of October. According to an analysis by Reuters, Bloomberg, and S&P Global Commodity Insights, at least ten refineries, including export-oriented ones, were partially or completely shut down in August and September. According to BBC calculations, since January, Ukrainian drones have attacked 21 of the country’s 38 largest refineries, a 48% increase over the entire 2024 figure.

According to Reuters, in August, Russian refineries’ primary capacity downtime reached 23%, a record high, and increased even further in September. In October, oil refining volumes fell to 4.86 million barrels per day—almost 10% lower than in July—and were the lowest in five years, Bloomberg reports. According to Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russia and Eurasia, Russian refinery productivity has fallen by approximately 10% since the July peak.

Vakulenko notes that if the situation worsens, Russian authorities have several options, ranging from imposing fuel consumption limits to temporarily relaxing environmental standards for gasoline. However, he adds, “with the current level of damage, the refineries will be restored within two to three weeks.” The expert believes that the development of the crisis will depend on the intensity of Ukrainian attacks and Kyiv’s production capacity: “How many drones can Ukraine produce, how frequently and on what scale can it launch them, and will it continue to focus on oil refining or will it choose other targets?”

Amid declining fuel refining and rising gasoline prices, which have reached a 14-year high, restrictions on fuel sales to individual customers have been introduced in several Russian regions, as well as in annexed Crimea. To mitigate the crisis, the Russian government has banned gasoline and diesel fuel exports, increased fuel purchases from Belarus, and, according to Kommersant, is preparing to begin importing from China, Singapore, and South Korea.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/11/koridorami-reiha-putin-i-ego-polskii-vopros-na-valdae-a176899