“Security Assurances”

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Andreas Umland

Andreas Umland   

Analyst, Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS), Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI)

  • Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS)
  • University of Cambridge

Stockholm, Stockholm County, Sweden 

Jan 18, 2025

Thirty years ago, the United States persuaded Ukraine that it does not need nuclear weapons and gave Ukraine “security assurances.” Today, the United States is persuading Ukraine that it needs to give up territories, forget about NATO membership, and lower the conscription age.

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On December 11, 2022, Jaanika Merilo wrote:

Why US just has to protect Ukraine? (feat Budapest Memorandum)

Why should the US really care about Ukraine? Of course, it should be about “protecting the world and freedom”. Of course, it’s about protecting the US, as the more powerless one of the enemies is, the less is needed on the defence budget. And so on. But there is something more. The Budapest Memorandum where the US promised to protect Ukraine. I assume that in value-based free democracies, the written promise is something you stick to or your word is not worth much.

On Dec 5th, 1994, President of US Bill Clinton, president of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk, president of Russia Boris Yeltsin and PM of the UK John Major signed the so-called Budapest Memorandum. The Memorandum was signed in the OSCE conference between Russia, US and UK, later joined by assurances of France and China. By given document countries promised to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus in exchange for them giving up their nuclear weapons. But what is critical, Ukraine did not just give up their nuclear weapon but handed them over to one of the signees – Russia. Until then, Ukraine had the third biggest nuclear arsenal in the world, with additional design and production capacity. With joining the Nuclear Nonprofilation Treaty (1992), countries agreed that the only five countries that can legitimately hold nuclear weapons – US, UK, China, France and Russia.

In the memorandum, the original signees pledged to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine, refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and committed to seek immediate UN Security Council action to assist Ukraine, if it should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of threat in which nuclear weapons are used.

The memorandum was breached by one of the members, and I see it very obvious that the other signees protect Ukraine. I hope that Emmanuel Macron would protect France more than it has protected Ukraine, as one of the later signees, while US is just doing what it should. And I very much hope it continues so, also with Republicans having more power, despite of MAGAs “not a penny to Ukraine”. I hope they still remember the promises given and that their “word is worth more than the paper its written on”. Today, when Russia has not only breached memorandum but is shelling Ukraine with rockets that were given over to Russia according to given memorandum.

By the way, the father of Anthony Blinken, good friend of Ukraine, Donald Blinken, was then US Ambassador to Hungary and also participated in signing.

Jaanika Merilo

Head of Digital Health and Care in Estonian Government / Digital Transformation / HealthTech /AI / OSINT / Security /NE100 Innovators that change the world (Google & FT) / Keynote speaker / Author

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Sir John Major, British Prime Minister at the time, wrote:

“The United Kingdom is pleased to join the United States and the Russian Federation in extending to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine the nuclear security assurances which we have given in the past to other non-nuclear-weapon states.”

4 comments

  1. Now 81, as far as I am aware, Sir John Major has not commented on Budapest, or the putler holocaust.
    I strongly suggest that a journalist; preferably a Ukrainian one, “reaches out” to his office and requests an interview.

    What exactly did he understand he was signing? Was he aware that it was bullshit? I get the impression from his words that he thought he was guaranteeing Ukraine’s security from attack by an aggressive power?
    Why would he think that Ukraine signed if they did not fully believe that?
    It’s a fucking embarrassment for the US and UK, but a terrible catastrophe for Ukraine.

    It’s time also that the man of the moment; Trump, was also interviewed on this topic. Why has he never mentioned it? Surely he should be outraged at Clinton’s treachery?

  2. “Thirty years ago, the United States persuaded Ukraine that it does not need nuclear weapons and gave Ukraine “security assurances.” Today, the United States is persuading Ukraine that it needs to give up territories, forget about NATO membership, and lower the conscription age.”

    This was like signing a decree which allow rapists and murderers to enter schools. The signers of this piece of filthy toilet paper let a small, poor, and innocent country become a victim of the biggest and most brutal rapist and murderer that this globe has seen since Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany, and Stalin’s SU. Worse yet, some say Ukraine must surrender territory, thus rewarding this raping and murdering crime syndicate.

  3. Budapest is not only the fault of the stupidity of Clinton but Obama, Biden and Trumpkov. They not only ignored history but were narcissistic self serving MOFOs. But they’re not alone. Kravchuk was an absolute genius in securing Ukraine’s independence during an extremely difficult time where everyone wanted Ukraine to remain under ruskies control, but then Kuchma really screwed up. Whether it was stupidity or threats the next twenty fives years of Ukrainian history falls on the lap of Kuchma and all that followed. To assume in 2014 that Russia will go no further was idiotic.

    My understanding was that Ukraine did not build or have any significant defense industry despite seeing the treacherous attitude of our so called allies and Budapest signatories. Ukraine should have treated the Minsk agreement similarly to the ruskies and just ignore it Yes this is all Monday morning quarterbacking but if we can’t learn from history we are all lost as well. At the end I do believe in the old adage that God helps those who help themselves.

    Слава Україна!

    Слава його героям!

    🇺🇦🇺🇦❤️🇺🇦🇺🇦

  4. Along with the worthlessness of the guarantees\assurances the remedy for a breach was to “seek immediate UN Security Council action.” As we’ve seen, the UN is a waste tons of money as it is neither immediate, nor capable of taking affirmative action. All the while having the ruzzian terrorist regime in the position to veto any attempts to do what is right on Ukraine’s behalf.

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