Ivan Matveichenko

Private Equity | Ukraine

April 30, 2024

So what is the victory plan for Ukraine? Is it possible to win at all?

Absolutely possible and the plan is rather simple (doesn’t mean easy):

1. Nuclear threat is to be negated. No one will launch strategic nukes to end the world in fire, no matter how hard Putins fanboys would want you to believe it. Tactical nukes are quite comparable to what Russians are currently throwing at Ukrainian soldiers (new 3 ton FAB bombs), so there’s nothing new to say there.
2. Ukraine will hold the line. The debate has shifted from Russia will be taking over half of Europe to Russia is rapidly advancing on the outskirts of Ukrainian village with a population of 6 people. But somehow we forgot that and Russia is presenting these advances as a major victory.
3. Kerch bridge needs to be destroyed. It will force Russian forces out of Crimea, which can lead to a number of positive scenarios for Ukraine, including Russian forces collapse in the south.
4. Russia is big and does not have enough air defence. Strikes deep inside enemy territories need to continue
5. Russia is big and consists of many groups of interest with radically different goals. Putin is simply a mediator between those groups. Oligarchs need open borders and western capital, military guys need iron curtain and increased defence spending, Russian nationalists are tired of ethnic crime groups, numerous ethnic groups are tired of Russian nationalists. Then there is Russian Orthodox Church (Christian) and Caucasian diaspora (Muslim), party of war, party of peace, Navalny team and Russian opposition. They all need to be played against each other, there’s plenty to be done.
6. Corruption is rampant in Russian MoD. As military spending increases, so does the corruption. We are yet to see it’s true scale and we need to encourage it and provide shelter and ways for Russian corrupt officers to flee from Russia with money they have accumulated.
7. Recent advancements of Russia at the front were caused by FAB bombs. As Zaluzhniy pointed out: “this is a war of one chance” – new technology is very effective at first (remember HIMARS), but very quickly effectiveness diminishes as enemy adapts. Ukraine will adapt to FAB bombs and they will be neutralised.

And the last point. There are two proven signs when Russia is losing:

1. Nuclear threats
2. Calls for piece

Both are currently observed, so we are doing something right. We should not get cocky though and should strike a deal at a point of maximum leverage. For example after destruction of a bridge. How this deal should look like is a subject for separate debate

Slava Ukraini

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Comment from :

Chris Carr

There really can only be one way to end the invasion and that is for Putin’s forced to be repelled, which is why it is so dangerous when you have MAGA rhetoric and trump saying that they could end it quickly by making the two sides agree a negotiated settlement. If Ukraine give so much as an inch to Russia then it’s a message that they can do it again. I think the real end point here is who can out last the other. Ukraine, for so long as it has american and EU backing stand the best chance as Russia is fairly isolated. But should that dynamic change, say a GOP win in November, and Russia could very well be knocking on Poland’s door next. This is why the American election is so important worldwide. If Biden wins the Ukraine can be saved and Russia contained. If trump wins then as well as withdrawing support for Ukraine, he’s also like to end NATO and that is just a signal to Putin that Europe is for the taking. American’s may not like outside comment, but the reality is that America has embraced the role of World Police for over half a century, it can’t abandon that position and expect the world not to have an opinion on it!

John Lawson

Oil & Gas Digital Solutions Professional

Excellent post, always good to stand back and assess the real threat and disregard the wall of Tankie agitprop from the GOP “Goons” of Putin. The war has now moved to the Nature of last century’s world wars, wars of economic and industrial power, and Reagan’s Star Wars arms race that destroyed the USSR Economically. This is now a war of industrial economies, NATO’s GDP is 20 times that of Russia, as they say “Do the Math”, Putin is now circling the drain.

Lev Vernik

UoH (all views are my own)

Great to read! However, I’d add three more points: 8. UA conducts mobilization more effectively and efficiently. 9. UA builds defense lines with concrete reinforcements similar to those built by Russians in early 2023. 10. UA government fights corruption using more visible and decisive measures.

Peter van den Berg

Unfortunately I believe you are wrong, although I hope I am wrong. If it had only been that Putin would like to be the next Czar of a Russian empire, all you arguments may be valid. But first of all Putin is an ordinary thief and leader of the gang. Many ordinary Russians know. For Putin there’s no way back. He needs to fight to end either to be victorious, or to die. And if you are going to die anyway, why would you care about the way to go. Nuclear weapons have never been made to store, but for use. So if you don’t care for the lives of other people, why not put them to use? We are not dealing with ideology but with ordinary crime. I sincerely do hope you are right and I am wrong. May peace be with you!

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Another searing post from Ivan. From yesterday:

I will never get tired of saying this:

Number one step in resolving Russia-Ukraine conflict is to recognise that it is not a Russia-Ukraine conflict.

This is a clash of civilizations. Ukrainians need ruins of Bakhmut just as much as Italians or Canadians do.

We have plenty of resources and territories, it’s not about that. It is about fighting against tyranny and oppression, it is a fight for justice.

That’s where we disconnect. Because if everyone agreed, we would have fought together, motivated by the sense of justice. We would not need to kidnap last remaining Ukrainian men from the streets and treat them like slaughterhouse animals.

If you go to Kyiv, you will see lots of big healthy men wandering around. So you might conclude that Ukraine has plenty of reserves. But the reason why government did not mobilise most people in big cities, because they were fearful of potential protests.

Some of the small villages I visited have ZERO eligible men remaining. Brave Ukrainian nation is going extinct, the frontier of western democracy.

I’ve been to war and let me tell you this: when your first line of defence falls, do not count too much on the next ones. It is usually full of people that never been in combat and they crumble. When first line falls it is usually the guys from the first line elsewhere that come to fix things, not the second line people. Your first line is about to crack. Who you gonna call?

P.S: giving you some personal statistic. It might be completely off as this is my subjective experience.

Out of every 10 men I know, 1 is in the army. Out of 10 people in the army, 3 are on combat assignments. Out of 10 people in the combat zone 1 or 2 are actually shooting at the enemy and 1 or 2 are only good for reloading weapons. Rest 6-8 are scared and cannot perform. They are not cowards, this is just how things are at war. So I invite you to do the simple math and figure out how many people you can really count on in your country against a Russian horde 500 000 men strong. There are very few scared guys in the Russian army, because they get shot by commanders sometimes.