September 26, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on September 25 (Photo:President Joe Biden/Facebook) 

Author: Elizaveta Drabkina

NV reported on the components of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s victory plan for Ukraine and noted which aspects may spark controversy among U.S. officials.

September 26 marks Day X, when the still-secret victory plan for Ukraine, crafted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s team, will be presented to its first foreign leader, U.S. President Joe Biden, during negotiations in Washington.

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According to NV, the plan was developed by a small group, with select experts contributing to specific elements, while only a handful have seen the complete document, a source familiar with the initiative’s preparation told the editorial team.

Another informed source connected to the plan’s development stated that no foreign partners were involved in its creation.

The key question remains: are these partners ready to support Zelenskyy’s plan?

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Everything will be solved by one person

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has officially outlined a victory plan for Ukraine consisting of four main components: military, political, diplomatic, and economic measures aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s position, along with a fifth component that will be necessary after the war ends.

A source familiar with the plan’s development at Bankova explained to NV that the document includes fundamental strategies such as ongoing support for Ukraine at the front, permission for long-range strikes on Russian territory, and a detailed list of weapons required by the Armed Forces. It also features a comparison of the forces and capabilities of Ukraine and Russia on the battlefield.

The source emphasized that qualified experts contributed to the plan, assuring that at least its military component should be effective. “The American military respects the expertise of Ukrainian colleagues,” the source stated. “They understand that the Ukrainian military won’t propose unrealistic strategies because they are pragmatic individuals who have experienced the realities of war.”

However, the source indicated that political challenges may arise. “This isn’t just about how realistic the plan is; it’s also about how willing Western partners are to support a victory,” the source explained. While discussions about total victory may be premature, establishing superiority over the enemy is a priority.

“Establishing that advantage requires support, and how willing they are to provide it largely hinges on one person — Joe Biden,” the source said. “If he expresses support, many world leaders will follow suit. If he says ‘no,’ it could lead to unpredictable outcomes.”

The source also noted that the Biden administration appears hesitant to approve actions that could cause significant damage to Russia. “Without that permission, this plan or any other will be ineffective. You can’t defeat an adversary you’re unwilling to strike,” the source added.

If the U.S. allows long-range strikes on Russian territory, the entire plan will likely gain approval.

Another aspect of the victory plan includes inviting Ukraine to NATO. This was announced by Andriy Yermak, head of the President’s Office, during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “If we’re discussing long-term security for decades, it can only be achieved through NATO. No other framework can provide the same level of security and stability,” the source explained.

Overall, the plan is designed to create advantages for Ukraine before potential negotiations to end the war with Russia. However, according to two sources familiar with the situation, the initiatives developed by Bankova do not call for a ceasefire or a departure from Ukraine’s peace formula.

But there is one “but.”

During his current trip to the U.S., President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has discussed the details of his victory plan with leaders from several partner nations and U.S. lawmakers, according to a source familiar with the document’s development. However, none of these officials have yet seen the complete version of the “peaceful” concept.

The source indicated that there was no negative feedback from the allies regarding the plan; rather, its general logic impressed many, with some even offering Zelenskyy advice on how to effectively promote his peace initiatives.

However, The Wall Street Journal reported a less optimistic outlook on the plan. Citing anonymous comments from senior U.S. and European officials familiar with its outline, the newspaper noted that the document lacks a clear path to victory for Ukraine, particularly as Russian forces continue to advance in the east.

According to the report, the Biden administration is worried that the plan does not present a comprehensive strategy and is viewed as “no more than a reworked request for more weapons” and the removal of restrictions on long-range missiles.

Despite this, the Ukrainian source emphasized that it is still too early to assess partner reactions, as they need to review all the details first. The source clarified that the plan is complex, meaning that it is not feasible to implement one aspect while disregarding others.