This year, Ukraine will no longer be able to receive the second tranche under the new program with the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) , which was expected in the fall.

This opinion was expressed by the strategist of the financial company Bluebay Asset Management Timothy Ash.

He noted that the independence of the NBU was the central theme of the new 5-billion stand-by program. The forced resignation of Jacob Smoliy from the post of head of the central bank and the statement by President Vladimir Zelensky about what should be the monetary policy indicate that the independence of the NBU is now ” in ruins,” the economist said.

According to Ash, funding from other international partners, such as from the European Union, “will also be suspended until resolving issues with the IMF.”

The economist noted that the IMF and the markets were not only alarmed by Smoliy’s resignation, but also by the NBU Council’s refusal to appoint Oleg Churiy the deputy head of the central bank for a second term, a protest rally with funeral wreaths and a coffin at the entrance to the village where Smoliy lives, as well as Zelensky ’s statements about that the hryvnia allowed too much strength. Ash emphasized that with these statements, the president is playing along with the industrial lobby.

“ It seems that Zelensky is now in alliance not only with [oligarch Igor] Kolomoisky, but also with the industrial lobby, which claims that Ukraine does not need the IMF. It is difficult to understand how all of the above can not be considered an undermining of the independence of the NBU. Zelensky seemed to shoot the NBU from Javelin for independence, ”said Ash.

He added that probably “reforms in Ukraine are dead.”

“ The IMF program will be frozen. I expect that a weak candidate will be nominated for the head of the NBU, monetary policy will be weakened, and the national currency will devalue, ”the economist predicts.

Recall, on July 1, Yakov Smoly, who headed the NBU in March 2018, said that he had written and filed a letter of resignation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky . He said that for a long time the National Bank of Ukraine has been under systematic political pressure. “By my resignation, I want to warn against further attempts to undermine the institutional foundations of the central bank in Ukraine,” added Smoly.

The next day, the parliament fired the head of the NBU . And about. The head of the central bank was Yekaterina Rozhkova, first deputy head of the NBU.

Due to the resignation of Smoly, Ukraine canceled the placement of Eurobonds at $ 1.75 billion .

(c) HB