by Rachel AmranFebruary 1, 2024 11:38 PM
In an opinion piece published by CNN on Feb. 1, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi named three main areas of focus for Ukraine’s military in 2024.
The piece was conducted before the rumours of his potential dismissal gained ground.
Zaluzhnyi stated that Ukraine’s army needs to create a system to provide its forces with high-tech assets, introduce a new philosophy of training and warfare that accounts for restrictions in assets, and lastly, master new combat capabilities as soon as possible.
“Our goal must be to seize the moment – to maximize our accumulation of the latest combat capabilities, which will allow us to commit fewer resources to inflict maximum damage on the enemy, to end the aggression and protect Ukraine from it in the future,” he wrote.
Zaluzhnyi also suggested that drones and unmanned systems, although not the only factor, “provide the best way for Ukraine to avoid being drawn into a positional war, where we do not possess the advantage.”
Ukraine, in his view, must acknowledge Russia’s significant advantage in mobilizing human resources and “the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our Armed Forces without the use of unpopular measures.”
Additionally, Zaluzhnyi wrote that Ukraine’s defense system faces ammunition production bottlenecks due to imperfections in the country’s regulatory framework, as well as the partial mobilization of the defense industry.
This then furthers Ukraine’s dependence on its allies for technological support.
Defense systems require constant improvement, as do countermeasures targeting Russia’s use of new technology. The challenge for Ukraine’s Armed Forces is to “create a completely new state system of technological rearmament.”
Earlier this week, sources inside the Ukrainian government suggested that Zaluzhnyi may soon be dismissed. No official presidential decree has been published and Zaluzhnyi was still officially in the post as of Feb. 1. CNN reported that an official announcement of his dismissal is expected by the end of the week.
Ukrainian media, including the Kyiv Independent, have been trying to confirm the news about Ukraine’s top commander’s firing. The sources, all speaking on condition of anonymity, have been providing contradicting responses.
Zaluzhnyi served as Commander-in-Chief since July 2021. Reports first surfaced in November 2023 about disagreements between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi.
The alleged disagreement between the two received increased attention following Zaluzhnyi’s interview on the state of the war for The Economist on Nov. 1, in which he said there was a danger that Ukraine was walking into the trap of a prolonged war.
Zelensky said he disagreed with this sentiment during a briefing on Nov. 4.
Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda then reported on Dec. 4 that Zelensky was allegedly “bypassing” Zaluzhnyi in communication with some military commanders, citing anonymous sources.
President Zelensky said during a press conference on Dec. 19 that he has a “working relationship” with Zaluzhnyi, responding to a question about their alleged dispute.
Ok, this explains why there are tensions between the government and military command. Still, Zaluzhny is very much right and Zelensky needs to face reality. Under current conditions, a prolonged war is likely and he has to accept the consequences of this. Most importantly, that the troops in the field need a relief and thus a strong inflow of new recruits is unavoidable. That this will be unpopular is no good reason to ignore the necessity. Zelensky has done a good job so far, i hope he doesn’t ruin this now by putting his poll ratings above the demands of national security.
Zelensky never served in the military. This is the real problem. He is simply incapable of understanding how the military works. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko had a better wire to the armed forces. I hope if things go sour Petro or Yulia will take over the ship.
I doubt Poroshenko or Timoshenko are as popular among Western governments. Since Ukraine very much depends on Nato support now, I don’t think such a change would be a good idea.
I think it would be a very good idea. Almost overdue.
The WashingtonPost reports there’s huge concerns about exchanging Zaluzhny: “Zelensky’s shake-up of military command, meant as a refresh, risks backlash” (via MSN)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-s-shake-up-of-military-command-meant-as-a-refresh-risks-backlash/ar-BB1hD8a4
I hope this will make the President and his advicers think twice. Putting a yes-man at the helm won’t change the hard facts on the ground, after all. And these require fresh troops.
However, Zaluzhny has to do more to prove he’s a team player, acting in the interest of national unity. He can’t simply leave that unpopular decision to Zelensky, but should offer to help shoulder that burden. I’m thinking about a video message to the Ukrainian people, by both Zelensky and Zaluzhny, where the president explains how hard it had been for him to come to this important decision, and Zaluzhny explaining the military necessity. With his stellar popularity rating, he should be able to convince his countrymen that the brave defenders need a relief, a longer break from fighting at the frontline, and that it’s necessary for fresh hands to step in. If he appeals to patriotism and courage, I’m sure the Ukrainian people won’t let him down. That’s the message that needs to be send now, and it should be a unified one, from both political and military leadership.