09/20/2026
In the Lyman direction, Ukrainian troops continue their offensive against Russian positions , which are retreating in some areas. International journalist and political commentator Ivan Yakovyna believes that Ukrainian forces may be preparing an operation to bypass and block Yampol, and the fight for this city could become one of the decisive battles of the war.
Yakovyna spoke about this in a YouTube video . He noted that the Ukrainian military is hiding its plans and the location of its units, so when analyzing the situation, it is necessary to rely mainly on Western OSINT analysts who use satellite imagery, as well as maps from Russian military bloggers.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces can bypass Yampil from the flank and rear
According to Western sources, Ukrainian troops have crossed the Zherebets River in at least two places – near Nevsky and Zarichne . The northern direction, according to Yakovyna, already allows Ukrainian forces to advance into the territory of Luhansk region.
At the same time, the observer paid special attention to the breakthrough near Zarechne. In his opinion, the goal of this advance may not simply be to penetrate deeper into Russian-controlled territory, but to bypass the main Russian base in the area – Yampol – from the flank and rear.
“Judging by everything, his goal is not just to go as deep as possible into the territory controlled by the Russians, but to bypass the main Russian base in this entire region – the city of Yampil – from the flank and from the rear,” Yakovyna said.
According to him, it was from Yampol that Russian troops have been launching attacks in the direction of Lyman and Svyatogorsk in recent months. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to liberate the city, Russia may lose the opportunity to surround Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north.
To restore this direction, Russian troops, according to the observer, would have to cross Zherebets again, capture Yampil, create a supply base there, and then try to advance to Liman, Svyatohirsk again, and then cross the Seversky Donets.
” This is a task for several years, if it is even feasible in principle. That is, Yampil is the key to everything,” Yakovyna said.
He specifically drew attention to the geography of the area. Yampil is located on the right, western bank of the Zherebets. If Yakovyna’s assumption about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ plan is correct, Ukrainian forces could bypass the city on the left bank of the river to blockade it and cut it off from the main Russian forces.
This, according to the observer, may also be indicated by the Ukrainian attack along the Seversky Donets from west to east – along the southern flank of Yampol. If successful, Russian troops in the city may find themselves surrounded, and from the south, east and north they will be covered by the Seversky Donets and Zherebets rivers.
“The Russians want to hold the city at all costs”
Yakovyna also referred to a message from Russian military blogger “Rybar”, who describes the situation in the Lyman direction as difficult. According to him, Ukrainian formations are attacking through forest areas in the Dibrova area towards Yampol.
“The situation in the Lyman direction remains difficult . Ukrainian formations are attacking through forest areas in the Dibrova area towards Yampol,” Yakovyn quoted the Rybar report as saying.
A Russian blogger also reported “increasing deterioration of the situation,” and north of Yampol, he said, the situation also remains tense.
According to Yakovyna, this may indicate chaos among the Russian troops in the area of the city and fears of its surroundings. He suggested that the command of the units could have been significantly disrupted, with some soldiers retreating and others acting virtually independently.
At the same time, the observer warned that it would be wrong to draw final conclusions about the plans of the Ukrainian and Russian command based only on the maps of OSINT analysts. He emphasized that he could be wrong, but he believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be aimed specifically at the liberation of Yampol.
“Yampil could completely eliminate the threat of the encirclement of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the Russians ,” Yakovyna noted.
According to him, Russia is trying to hold on to the city at all costs, as its loss could complicate further plans for Russian troops in Donbas. This is what he explains by the Russian Z-channels’ reports about the resumption of the so-called “meat assaults.”
” Commanders are throwing everyone they have at hand into the fire , just to push the Armed Forces of Ukraine away from Yampol,” the observer said.
Yakovyna believes that one of the main and decisive battles or competitions of this war may now unfold in this direction. At the same time, he noted that this struggle will not be an idle one for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since, in his opinion, the Kremlin may throw reserves into the direction due to the importance of Yampol.
“If the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still able to liberate Yampil, Russia will lose all practical chances of capturing Donbas and winning the war ,” Yakovyna said.
The situation is also worsening in the Kupyansk direction.
The observer noted that the consequences of the weakening of Russian forces could be noticeable on neighboring front lines. He drew attention to the report by “Rybar” about the situation on the northern flank of the Kupyansk direction, where Ukrainian forces are attacking at the Dvorichne-Zapadne line.
Yakovina attributes this, in particular, to the actions of the 3rd Army Corps, which, according to him, defeated the 20th and 25th armies of the Russian Federation near Liman. The retreat of Russian troops may expose the flanks of neighboring units.
“The Russians, retreating, are exposing the flanks of their neighbors on both the right and left,” the observer noted.
He also drew attention to the Russian bridgehead west of the Oskil River . Rybar wrote that the Russian military was trying to hold it , while Ukrainian forces were allegedly trying to divide the bridgehead.
According to Yakovyna, the Russian bridgehead is actually already divided into northern and southern parts , which he claims is reflected on the DeepState map. The southern part, he says, has been cut off from supplies , which is why the Ukrainian military is gradually destroying it.
The observer noted that the Russian command had previously placed great hopes on this bridgehead. If it is eliminated, Yakovyna believes, the Russian strategy in the Kupyansk direction will suffer a serious setback.
He also mentioned the upcoming first anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s statement about the alleged capture of Kupyansk. According to Yakovina, the city was not actually taken by Russian troops , and now Russia is trying to regain control over part of the territories around it.
What’s happening with the Rubicon?
Separately, Yakovyna analyzed the situation around the Russian unit of UAV operators “Rubikon” . The 3rd Army Corps reported that within the framework of the offensive operation “Vivaldi”, the Ukrainian military disabled the unit’s control system, destroyed its logistics, ammunition depots, drone takeoff points, and experienced operators.
According to the information he provided, due to the loss of people and equipment and the problems created by Ukrainian electronic warfare and air defense, the Russian military began to abandon their positions , abandoning their property. In order to preserve the remnants of the unit, the Russian command decided to transfer the Rubicon to another direction.
Yakovina said he was inclined to trust this information because, according to him, the 3rd Army Corps is usually more likely to downplay its achievements than exaggerate them.
The columnist emphasized that this is of particular importance, since the Rubicon was considered a kind of “fire brigade” for the Russian army , which was transferred to the most difficult sections of the front. According to Yakovyna, the unit was well equipped, and its fighters had considerable experience.
However, this time, according to the observer, the Russian scheme did not work.
“Instead of saving the situation at the front, the Russians urgently had to save their elite unit . The system under which the appearance of the Rubicon guarantees success no longer works,” Yakovina said.
Yakovina announced a possible mobilization in Russia
Separately, the columnist drew attention to the possibility of a new mobilization in Russia. He noted that the Russian authorities publicly deny its implementation, however, in his opinion, the situation at the front may indicate otherwise.
Yakovina referred to Bloomberg, which, citing documents, reported on the Russian elite’s fears about possible mobilization after the next election.
According to him, Kremlin officials are allegedly advising friends and relatives to leave Russia in the coming months and are looking for opportunities to open bank accounts abroad . Similarly, according to the columnist, employees of recruitment offices for the Russian army may act similarly.
“Putin can make any statements, but if this public has started preparing relatives and advising them to leave the Russian Federation, then there will be mobilization ,” Yakovina said.
He cited the situation with the draft Russian budget for next year as another indirect evidence of possible preparations for mobilization. According to the columnist, it is usually made public in late August or early September, but this year the document remains classified as of mid-September.
At the same time, Putin said that one of the budget’s top priorities would be defense spending. Yakovina suggested that the reason for the secrecy may be that the document includes costs for possible mobilization , including military registration and enlistment offices, training, and housing for mobilized personnel.
In conclusion , the columnist drew a parallel with 2022. According to him, the preliminary mobilization in Russia was announced precisely when the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to push Russian troops out of the areas of Yampol, Lyman, and Kupyansk.
“As soon as the so-called elections are held, I think we will have to wait for mobilization on a fairly large scale . Last time, mobilization was announced exactly when the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to drive the Russians from exactly the same places: from near Yampol, from near Lyman, from near Kupyansk,” Yakovyna summed up.
Recall, Operation Vivaldi near the Lyman disrupted an attempt by Russian troops to carry out a wide encirclement of the Ukrainian “belt of fortresses” . According to ISW, Russian troops planned to capture the Lyman, cross the Seversky Donets and advance towards Sloviansk.
As OBOZ.UA reported, the Third Army Corps showed the first footage of Operation Vivaldi, filmed by Ukrainian military personnel on GoPro cameras . The corps spoke about the large-scale clearing of the territory from Russian infiltration and the de-occupation of settlements in the north of Donetsk region.