July 5, 2026
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he was expecting a quick and complete victory that would erase the injustice of the Soviet collapse and revive Russia’s great power status. This now looks to have been one of the most disastrous miscalculations in modern history. Today, Putin finds himself trapped in the largest European war since World War II amid mounting indications that the tide is turning in Ukraine’s favor.
In 2022, the invading Russian military was so confident of success that some troops reportedly packed dress uniforms to wear during the coming victory parade in Kyiv. Few could have imagined that four years later, Putin would be forced to drastically downgrade Russia’s own traditional Victory Day parade in Moscow due to fears of possible Ukrainian attack.
And yet that is exactly what happened in May 2026. Putin even humbled himself by calling on US President Donald Trump to help broker a temporary ceasefire, while Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy added to his Russian counterpart’s obvious discomfort by issuing a mock presidential decree permitting the parade to proceed.
This year’s Victory Day humiliation was only one of multiple signs in recent months that Putin’s invasion is rapidly unraveling. In early June, Ukraine marked the opening of Putin’s flagship St. Petersburg International Economic Forum by bombing the city’s oil terminal and naval base. This was a major personal embarrassment for the Russian dictator, who was unable to prevent visiting foreign delegations from noting the huge plumes of smoke shrouding the city as they made their way to the forum venue.
The achievements of Ukraine’s strategic bombing campaign this year extend far beyond disrupting Putin’s precious parade and his flagship forum. Since the beginning of 2026, escalating Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on military and industrial targets inside Russia have succeeded in hampering the Kremlin war machine and sparking a fuel crisis that is threatening to desbilize Putin’s home front. Meanwhile, a series of large-scale attacks on Moscow have confirmed Ukraine’s growing ability to bring the war home to Russia.
Ukraine’s success is directly challenging the unspoken social contract between the Kremlin and the Russian population. For years, Putin has promised ordinary Russians higher living standards while vowing to shield them from the negative consequences of his wars. In return, the general population has been expected to stay out of politics. With Russia’s cities under frequent bombardment and millions of people forced to queue for hours in search of fuel, this informal agreement is beginning to look outdated.
The current situation in Russian-occupied Crimea is even more alarming for the Kremlin. In recent months, Ukraine has imposed what it terms as a “logistics lockdown” of the strategically crucial Black Sea peninsula, using drones to target all major supply routes. This has forced the occupation authorities to restrict fuel sales to civilians and declare a state of emergency.
Russia’s prospects on the battlefield are little better. Putin’s army has struggled to advance at all in 2026, with minor territorial gains in many cases canceled out by successful Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere along the front lines of the war. This lack of progress has come despite continued heavy casualties, with the UK estimating in late May that Russia had lost around half a million soldiers since the start of the invasion.
Putin has also been confronted with a series of setbacks in the international arena. Since the start of the year, Russia has lost key allies in Venezuela and Hungary, while efforts to bully Armenia have proved counterproductive and undermined Russian influence in the southern Caucasus region. These blows have highlighted Russia’s diminished status on the global stage due to the faltering Ukraine invasion.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s efforts to undermine international support for Ukraine have fallen flat. Many in Moscow breathed a sigh of relief when Trump won the US presidential election in 2024, but he has proved unable to end the war on Russian-friendly terms. Instead, Europe has dramatically stepped up military aid to Kyiv, purchasing weapons from the United States and significantly increasing direct funding for the Ukrainian war effort. With Ukraine now widely recognized as indispensable for the future of European security, this enhanced support is likely to continue.
And here is Kira’s latest reel :
Ukraine Has All Chances to Win
Europe pressure the mafia state? Sure, until one of the drunkards rattles with the dull nuke saber. again.
No chance that disunited and pathetic Europe will do anything more than the little it has done.
[trumpkov] “has proved unable to end the war on Russian-friendly terms.”
Not for lack of trying…