Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

May 16, 2025

Only one conclusion can be drawn from today’s talks in Istanbul: Russia has once again rejected the proposed 30-day ceasefire. In the first meeting between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in three years, Moscow demanded Kyiv withdraw its troops from the four regions Vladimir Putin has claimed but failed to capture completely. When Ukraine refused, Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky reportedly threatened to seize even more: Kharkiv and Sumy regions next. He warned that Russia is prepared to fight forever, before asking: can Ukraine? ‘Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones.’

Threats and unrealistic demands are part of the Russian negotiation strategy. This is why Moscow opposed having a US representative at the table during the direct negotiations with Ukraine. Putin, who offered to renew talks with Kyiv in Turkey, needs to preserve the illusion of a peace process for Donald Trump. At the same time, behind closed doors his cronies threaten Ukrainians with more war. The Kremlin has sent a memo instructing Russian state journalists to say that Ukraine’s position at the talks today is worse than it was in Istanbul in 2022. Putin even sent the same delegation to continue where they left off. But the reality is the Ukrainians sitting across the table, as well as the situation on the ground, have changed significantly.

Since the last round of talks in Istanbul, Russia has failed to achieve a single one of its stated war goals. Ukraine has been neither demilitarised nor ‘denazified’. Russian troops have suffered a number of military defeats, forced to flee from the Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Moscow lost a quarter of its Black Sea Fleet and seized less than 1 per cent of land in the past two years at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian lives.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has transformed. In March 2022, it only had rifles, helmets and fuel from its allies to fight. Today, it has a million-strong army equipped with western tanks, fighter jets and domestically mass-produced weapons. The front line is now in a stalemate, and with the current pace it will take Putin decades to capture the four regions he claims as his. If demands for Ukraine’s surrender were futile three years ago, today they’re downright delusional.

Since both sides remain miles apart in their vision of what the peace should look like, and since Putin has no real intention to end the war, the sham talks organised to impress Trump will continue to fail. The only good news from today’s negotiations is that Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ‘1,000 for 1,000’ prisoner exchange. It is not the ‘all for all’ Kyiv asked for, but it is something. Putin is using every chance to stall the talks, and prisoners of war tortured in Russian jails are just another trump card in his sleeve.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Ukrainian and Russian delegates held direct talks in Istanbul for the first time since 2022. More below.
• Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived at a European summit in Albania to push for more sanctions against Russia.
• The EU agreed on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia. Almost 200 ships in the Russian shadow fleet have been targeted.
• Ukraine concluded all domestic procedures needed to launch EU accession talks.
• Zelensky signed into law the minerals agreement with the US to establish the joint Reconstruction Investment Fund.
• The Council of Europe agreed to set up a special tribunal for Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials responsible for launching the full-scale invasion.
• US envoy Keith Kellogg said British, French and German troops may be deployed west of the Dnipro river, while peacekeepers from a third country could monitor a ceasefire east of it.
• Zelensky’s trust rating rose from 69% in March to 74% in May, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll.
• Viktor Orban accused Kyiv of attempting to undermine the national survey on Ukraine’s EU membership after Ukraine’s security service detained two Hungarian spies in western Ukraine.
• The EU plans to raise tariffs on Ukrainian goods after the duty-free deal expires next month following pressure from Poland and EU farmers.
• The UN aviation agency has ruled Russia responsible for the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014.

Wider reading on the war

Putin only wants to talk to one man – The Spectator

Inside the Trump administration’s quiet shift on Ukraine – Financial Times

Content creators paint a rosy picture of life in occupied Mariupol, with support from the Kremlin– CNN

Despite the hype, EU’s latest Russia sanctions ‘not as strong as they should be’ – Kyiv Independent –  Kyiv Independent

‘Go back to Ukraine’: War refugees complain of abuse in Poland – BBC

Quote of the week

‘I don’t believe anything is going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he [Putin] and I get together. But we’re gonna have to get it solved because too many people are dying’

– Donald Trump claims that he must meet Putin for the war to end.

The war in numbers

Ukraine’s GDP growth seen slowing to

3.3%

from 3.5% forecasted in February

Ukraine has paid out in advance to foreign arms brokers

$770m

for weapons and ammunition that have not been delivered

People died in Ukraine last year

495,100

while only 176,100 were born

.

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk