Now that Russia has its sights on the east, with a major offensive imminent, the next month will be potentially decisive for Ukraine
The tragedy discovered amid the rubble of Bucha and Borodianka overshadowed any jubilation that Kyiv had defeated Russian forces that had spent a month trying to envelop the capital and snuff out the Ukrainian nation. Nevertheless, the defeat of Russian forces in the north marks a turning point in the war. For the medium term, Ukraine will now survive. But for its soldiers there is no respite, for having had its first objective denied Moscow has turned its gaze on the Donbas, where a major offensive is imminent.
The Donbas has been at war for eight years. More than 90 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in 2021 defending the line of contact. Since late February Ukrainian positions have come under regular artillery fire, with mobilised civilians from Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk pushed into attacks on the Ukrainian trenches. The aim of this Russian activity was to fix the 40,000 Ukrainian troops in the Joint Forces Operations (JFO) area, preventing them from impacting the fights for Mariupol, Kharkiv or Kyiv.
In the coming days the JFO is destined to become the focus of Russian attention. Having seized a land corridor from Rostov to Kherson, Russian forces are preparing to punch northwards to cut off lines of supply to Donetsk. Further Russian units – some newly formed and some repositioned – are forming up to push south around Luhansk from Kharkiv to complete the encirclement.
The battle will be very different from the advance on Kyiv. Russian units at the beginning of the war were not ready or supplied for heavy fighting. Now the Russians appreciate what they are up against and with only two axes to support can concentrate their supplies. Russian air defences have good coverage over the Donbas and they will likely be able to bring significant air power to bear. Combined with their advantage in artillery, and the fact that the fighting will be in the countryside rather than into urban centres, Ukrainian troops will need to manoeuvre to survive.
At the same time the Russians face a serious challenge. Ukrainian forces in the JFO comprise some of the country’s most professional and best-motivated units. The Russians have an advantage in firepower but will be fighting at close to numerical parity. If their plan is to encircle the JFO they will need to defend the cordon from both sides, and while Russian soldiers are now better prepared, morale remains a problem in many Russian units.
Having committed the majority of his forces, President Vladimir Putin must hit his objectives before the Victory Day Parade on 9 May or else face a steady decline in Russian combat power through exhaustion. This is likely to encourage the Russians to apply many of their most devastating weapons systems. But if Putin fails he will then face a choice: to seek an exit or to move Russia on to a war footing and mobilise reserves. That would mean abandoning the fiction that the war in Ukraine is merely a “special operation”.
For the Ukrainians the next month will be costly but potentially decisive. If Russia seizes the Donbas it can go firm and can pause while it brings up reserves for a summer offensive. On the other hand, if Russia fails to hit its objectives then many of its units will find themselves thrust forwards and exposed, at risk of persistent attrition like the troops who recently retreated from Kyiv.
For the Ukrainian military the priorities for the battle in the Donbas differ slightly from what was needed for the urban defence. A consistent supply of anti-tank missiles and man-portable air-defence systems will remain invaluable. But the force will also need loitering munitions to target Russian air defences and artillery, creating opportunities for Ukrainian helicopters to resupply isolated units. They will need protected mobility to move their troops safely to new defensive positions. They will need a considerable quantity of artillery ammunition.
For Ukraine’s allies there has been a persistent tension between providing military assistance that is immediately usable to stave off defeat, and systems that come with an associated training burden. The rate of Ukrainian equipment loss in the Donbas is likely to be higher than in the first phase of the conflict. If Ukraine is to be ready for the battle beyond the Donbas it will need to reconstitute some of its units. Now is the time, therefore, to begin supplying longer-term aid to regain the initiative.
Dr Jack Watling is senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/09/donbas-ukraine-russia-battle-very-different-from-kyiv-
“Further Russian units – some newly formed and some repositioned – are forming up to push south around Luhansk from Kharkiv to complete the encirclement.”
So, in the first phase of the war, mafia land burned its best troops and equipment, and now it’s supposed to do better with second-rate troops and gear? I doubt it. Although Ukraine also has suffered losses, it’s morale is still far higher and it still has large numbers of men and women willing to give all for the defense of their nation. Mafia troops have none of this.
Maybe a good time to destroy putinazi infrastructure such as Kerch bridge?
Indeed! It should be a priority. The Belgorod strike was a good one. They need many more like it.
Amen! Slava Ukraini!!!!
And taking out his latest General Alexander Dvornikov.
These newly formed units, will be the ones that hightailed it to Belarus once it became too hot for them. Do they think it will be any easier for them going up against the Ukrainian military and not the part time soldiers defending Kyiv? Are they going to be in for a surprise.
“The battle will be very different from the advance on Kyiv. Russian units at the beginning of the war were not ready or supplied for heavy fighting. Now the Russians appreciate what they are up against and with only two axes to support can concentrate their supplies. Russian air defences have good coverage over the Donbas and they will likely be able to bring significant air power to bear. Combined with their advantage in artillery, and the fact that the fighting will be in the countryside rather than into urban centres, Ukrainian troops will need to manoeuvre to survive.”
I have been trying to tell the Arm Chair Generals at the War Zone Web site and posting on twitter to the Powers That Be the very same thing for weeks.
What worked in the North in Jan-Mar will not work in the south. The gound will be drying soon, there are no major cities, The Russians will be able to maunver and mass their firepower and logistics will not be a major problem.(Unless UA makes it one.)
And the Russians were defeated. Defeat is a funny thing. It can break an opponant or be the making of them. Defeat sharpens the mind. focuses the will and hardens the resolve. In the next round the Russians will be looking for paybacks. There will not be the scared childern crying on the phone to their Babuskas. or running as the first sound of battle.
ATGMs alone will not win this the decisive battle of the war.
The West needs to start supplying the UA like they want them to win not just survive.
Otherwise Putin stoogies like Le Pen will be winning elections all over Europe.
Don’t underestimate Javelins et al. Mobile warfare still depends on armor and armor must be mobile and this mobility brings it into range of Anti-tank guided missiles. Their small size and effectiveness makes every trench, every foxhole, every bush, every nook and cranny of a battle field a potential anti-tank emplacement. Mafia troops have been taught what fear is by these weapons and this will certainly put a serious limit to their capabilities.