The Russian leader has a record of weaponising fuel supplies and believes his people can endure economic pain longer than Western Europe
By James Crisp 27 September 2022
The suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines could be a page ripped straight from Vladimir Putin’s playbook of panic, escalation and misdirection
The former KGB agent’s illegal war on Ukraine resulted in unprecedented Western sanctionsagainst Moscow.
But the Russian president is confident that his people can endure economic pain longer and better than Europeans.
His calculation is that soaring gas prices and the cost of living crisis in a continent hopelessly addicted to Russian energy will turn the situation to his advantage.
European Gas prices have been dropping for the last four days. On Tuesday, after news of the suspected attack, they rose by 20 per cent. The British price was up 33 per cent.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was filled with 117 million cubic metres of natural gas worth €213 million at current prices.
But Putin has shown he is willing to sacrifice valuable gas and use it as a weapon before. Russia was burning £8.4 million of gas a day at a plant near its border with Finland, rather than exporting it to Europe in August.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has never been operational, and the chances of it being so in the near future are extremely remote. Germany decided not to approve the huge project just before Putin launched his invasion.
Nord Stream 1, which had for so long fed Europe’s gas addiction, is not what it once was. Russia hasn’t turned the taps back on since closing it, ostensibly for maintenance, in August.
Why, though, might Moscow have chosen to strike at this moment, if it is indeed revealed to be behind the attack?
The EU has begun work drawing up new sanctions against Moscow. Viktor Orban in Hungary is already calling for them to be ditched and existing measures removed, while the new government in Italy looks certain to be less hawkish than the last.
It suits Putin to try to break morale so European governments are under pressure from angry voters fearful of the temperatures plummeting this Winter.
The timing was perfect. A new gas pipeline between Norway and Poland was inaugurated on Tuesday, very close to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, as news of the suspected sabotage emerged.
Warsaw is moving to cut itself entirely off from Russian gas by the end of the year.
The new Baltic Pipe is part of wider moves across Europe to find alternate suppliers to Moscow and build up gas reserves before winter bites.
Norway’s new role
Since the war in Ukraine, Norway has supplanted Russia as the EU’s main supplier of natural gas.
These underwater explosions could be a warning of what Russia could do to pipelines from Norway if backed into a corner.
The leak on Nord Stream 2 is close to the new Baltic pipe.
Just last week Moscow warned that Ukraine was planning a “terrorist” attack on the Turkstream pipeline, which also brings gas from Russia to the Europe.
Norwegian regulators have urged heightened vigilance after warnings from oil and gas companies that unidentified drones have been flying close to their offshore facilities.
While ramping up threats of a nuclear war, the Kremlin may be signalling that it can indeed escalate in ways that were once considered unthinkable.
Lose the Norwegian gas and this winter is certain to be long, cold, hard and expensive.
Russia is relying once again on “General Winter” – responsible for the defeat of so many of its enemies in the past – to secure victory in its energy war with the West.
“The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was filled with 117 million cubic metres of natural gas worth €213 million at current prices.
“But Putin has shown he is willing to sacrifice valuable gas and use it as a weapon before. Russia was burning £8.4 million of gas a day at a plant near its border with Finland, rather than exporting it to Europe in August.”
With this act, Vlad has perhaps shown the last blind fool in Europe that he also has blown up the concept that mafia land is a reliable energy supplier.
This is also another display of the rat’s total disregard of our environment. Natural gas is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, and he just caused the release of millions of cubic meters of it just to show contempt to the West.
Welcome to Ukraine, Europe, We hate to say we told you so…but we told you so.
Time to nuke the Siberian oil fields, see how Putler likes that.
If only the European governments hired any of us as adviser, this would have never happened.
Everything we expected happened.
Some people called me crazy when I often mentioned that Russia was the biggest problem Europe was facing, and some sent me a WhatsApp message saying: you were right all along.
I am happy with the explosion of these pipes. Today I looked at my dream apartment which I could get at a very low price.
I did refuse it, as my current house has no gas connection, and thanks to the Dutch tax system I am paying a negative amount of money for electricity.
Yeah, it is fucking tiny, but I am not going to pay for this mess. There is no way I am moving if it means I have to pay 300 bucks a month for gas.
And that is now, the winter hasn’t started yet. And no one knows we will have enough gas next year, if for example more pipes will be blown up.
Indeed, Bert, so many European politicians made so many mistakes, it’s hard to say which ones were first, worst, longest lasting, most obvious or stupidest. We certainly will never be able to keep pace with the Far East with such clowns at the helms, much less stay ahead.