The main forces of the RF Armed Forces were deployed in readiness for an offensive on the borders with Ukraine back in mid-January
The Ukrainian leadership at that time did not react to the threat in any way, and Putin retained the ability to ensure, if not strategic, then tactical surprise of the attack. However, the offensive did not begin. A big war is not starting even now, although Russia has begun active hostilities in the occupied Donbas.
The reason is obvious: Putin is pursuing alternate stages of military and political escalation .
Putin’s goal is also clear: to terrorize and disorganize the leadership of the state and Ukrainian society in order to force Ukraine to recognize the de facto annexation of Crimea and Donbass, and to isolate Ukraine from the support of NATO countries.
Therefore, every time, raising the level of military threat to Ukraine, Putin pauses in order to turn on political pressure and force concessions out of Ukraine under the threat of imminent war.
If Putin believed that he could quickly defeat Ukraine and break the will of the people to resist with one blow, Russia would have attacked suddenly.
But Russia is afraid to enter into a big war. The Kremlin understands that it is impossible to break the resistance of the entire 40 million people, who are supported by the largest democratic countries, in the course of a quick and short military campaign.
The Ukrainian army is in many ways inferior to the Russian one in terms of equipment and organization, but the number of motivated people with combat experience in Ukraine is greater than the number of troops deployed by the Russian Federation on our borders. No one has ever managed to bomb a large state and an entire nation out of a war with purely aviation and missiles, and therefore ground actions will be required to crush Ukraine. Russia will suffer huge losses and receive new sanctions, and Ukraine will receive modern NATO weapons.
Therefore, the severance of diplomatic relations, the strengthening of the combat capability of the army, the effective mobilization of the country’s resources is the best answer and the best sedative for the Russian aggressors. The best way to prevent war. If we hesitate and remain silent, we will show the enemy that his pressure is working.
Russia destroyed the Minsk agreements precisely because Ukraine has a strong political position, and every year our capabilities are expanding, and Russian influence in Ukraine is fading away.
Therefore, we need to use our advantages. We must respond to Putin’s ultimatum not with humiliated negotiations, but with a break in diplomatic relations, as little Georgia did in 2008,
We need to raise the people to defend the country.
Whatever army Putin raises, he must understand that Ukraine will never recognize the annexation of Crimea and Donbass and will effectively defend itself against a direct invasion. And this makes the goals of his aggression unattainable.
“But Russia is afraid to enter into a big war. The Kremlin understands that it is impossible to break the resistance of the entire 40 million people, who are supported by the largest democratic countries, in the course of a quick and short military campaign.”
Putler is a big tough leader when ordering schools and hospitals to be bombed. It’s a little different when Russia could be facing an army with even larger numbers than it’s own army, especially when they are fighting for their country. Not even the US in Iraq could keep the peace without boots on the ground, and plenty of them, over 170,000, the US were in Iraq for 8 years. Iraq has the same size population as Ukraine, something to think about.
“Whatever army Putin raises, he must understand that Ukraine will never recognize the annexation of Crimea and Donbass and will effectively defend itself against a direct invasion. And this makes the goals of his aggression unattainable.”
There is only one noble side to this and the world will gravitate towards us in the event of bloodshed. This has the scent of WWII when the reluctant Americans decided to join in to defeat Hitler. Its just a matter of time until Biden realizes his mistakes…I hope. I don’t think Americans are needed on the ground yet but some air power would remind the Moskali who they are. Biden’s biggest mistake has been to tell the enemy you won’t fight back. Who the hell does that?!
“Who the hell does that?!”
A complete fool with ZERO military experience does that. In a situation where someone is not qualified to speak, it never a bad idea to just keep the stupid mouth shut.
It’s really nice to see an optimistic article for a change. I sincerely hope that the writer has it right.
Lavrov-Blinken was cancelled and Biden-putler was conditional on non-aggression. So where do they go from here? I’d like to think that some serious activity is going on behind the scenes.
Toby Ellwood; an ex -British army officer and current Tory MP who wants to replace Boris, just said on Jeremy Kyle’s TalkRADIO show that he would have sent a division into Ukraine six months ago. To paraphrase: “because that’s the only language he understands.”
Sounds lie Toby is the right man for the job in the Uk at this point in time. We certainly could use a Toby like that instead of the senile old fart, Joe.
IMO I think NATO should try a different tact. They should say, “We are locked and loaded and ready for the GO signal from our members.” Then just stfu! Now there are forces in position and that kind of a tact might keep the misfit midget off balanced.
It’s a good thing that the rat wavered with his attack. Each day that goes by, more trenches and foxholes can be dug, more mines laid, more concertina wire strung, more planning done, more weapons and ammo delivered…
We’ve spent the last 8 years believing Putin wouldn’t invade again because he would face a bigger and tougher opponent. I don’t think any of us could have foreseen this disaster when the leaders of the much tougher opponent just stand by and watch the schoolyard bully have his way with a smaller kid. Who the fuck could stand by and watch that without intervening?!