April 20, 2025

Who is benefiting from the speculative trade war?

At the personal level, individuals close to the administration could have significantly profited from recent market movements. If they knew in advance that the president was going to announce tariffs, they could’ve shorted the market and made money on their bets. Conversely, if they knew a 90-day pause was coming, they could’ve gone long and profited again. This borders on insider trading. I believe we will eventually learn whether this was the case or not.

At the national level, the mere threat of tariffs brought other countries to the negotiating table. The problem, however, is that the U.S. government’s reputation has taken a hit. If the administration made an empty threat and then backed down, who would trust any future threats? In game theory, this is called a non-credible threat — and it weakens the U.S.’s negotiating position moving forward.

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Parents are mourning and saying goodbye to their children in Kryvyi Rih.

Last week a russian missile killed 20 Ukrainians, including 9 children:
• Tymofii, 3 years old
• Arina, 7 years old
• Radyslav, 7 years old
• Herman, 9 years old
• Alina, 15 years old
• Danylo, 15 years old
• Mykyta, 15 years old
• Kostiantyn, 16 years old
• Nikita, 17 years old

This is the highest number of children killed at once in a single russian strike.

As parents bury their children, the world has already forgotten. There is no news coverage. We have, tragically, become complacent in the face of these war crimes.

To quote Dietrich Bonhoeffer: “Silence in the face of evil is itself evil: God will not hold us guiltless. Not to speak is to speak. Not to act is to act.”