Robin Horsfall
June 5
Offensive operations don’t begin with a cavalry charge or a huge amphibious landing. They begin with reconnaissance operations, probes, raids, tests on soil, weather forecasts, deceptions, bombing raids, sabotage and attacks on communications and logistical supplies.
In the past three weeks we have seen all of the above. There is confusion in the Russian ranks. The anti-Putin Russian Volunteer Force and Russian Freedom Legion have mounted strong raids or fighting patrols across the Russian border into Belgorod Oblast. This forced Russian Generals to move troops and materiel out of the Donbas defences. RF troops are now shelling Russian towns to halt Russian militias and evacuating Russian towns. For the first time the war is taking place in Russia.
Intelligence reports show Russian attempts to transfer troops north from Kherson and Zaporizhzhyia Oblasts to reinforce those gaps. This has concentrated forces in holding and staging areas making these reinforcements vulnerable to artillery attacks. Railways lines have been damaged by partisan and special forces patrols and to put a real shine on the story, – yesterday regular Russian troops ambushed Wagner troops withdrawing from Bakhmut.
Russian forces are fighting among themselves. Chechen warlord Kadyrov throws insults at Wagner boss Prigozhyn, while Prigozhyn throws insults at Putin and the Russian General Staff. This is a divided house trembling in the winds of war.
The Ukrainian actions are the preliminaries of the counter offensive. The cracks in Russia are widening and the time is approaching for the Ukrainians to drive into those cracks.
In the meantime however, with Russians fighting Russians, it might be a good idea to wait for a few more days and let them carry on.
‘When your enemy is making a mistake do not interrupt him’.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
Indeed, Mr. Horsfall sees the situation crisp and clear. Too bad, our inglorious leaders are still in a fog of fear and confusion.
I hope that Ukraine’s leadership see as clearly as Mr. Horfall. They should do whatever is possible to add more fuel to the ruskie feud fire. There are a few more options open to achieve this, like a few serious raids into Belarus, or increasing the size of those happening in Belgorod, or attacking other mafia regions. The ruskie population will “appreciate” it.
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