The ball is in Putin’s court – and the US president has several strings he can pull if Moscow does not respond positively

Memphis Barker Senior Foreign Correspondent

12 March 2025

In the negotiations thus far, Donald Trump’s team has taken what might kindly be called a pliable approach to Russian demands, giving in to several before the hard yards of securing a peace deal even began. But now, the calculus has changed.

In Jeddah, the United States succeeded in encouraging Ukraine to accept its proposal for a 30-day ceasefire – a more far-reaching pause in the fighting than Britain and France’s plan for a halt in attacks by sea and air. The ball, as Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said, was now in Russia’s court.

Vladimir Putin has so far shown little sign that he is willing to agree to a ceasefire, with his troops on the front foot in Ukraine and shrinking Kyiv’s salient by the day in the western region of Kursk.

At his annual press conference in December, he said that a pause in the fighting would merely give Ukraine a chance to re-arm and restock its military.

But the Russian president now faces a dilemma: as Mr Rubio said, if Russia does not agree to a deal, “we will know who is the impediment to peace”.

The Trump administration, unlikely as it now appears, could then display some of the vengeful pirouetting for which its leader is known and turn whole-heartedly towards Kyiv.

Certainly, when they hold a phone call this week, Mr Trump will broach the risks of Putin stalling on – or rejecting – the deal on the table.

Diplomatic reintegration

There are several strings Mr Trump can pull. Most valuably, he could cast his willingness to bring in Moscow from the diplomatic deep freeze, and eventually participate in a raft of joint economic projects, as conditional on this 30-day ceasefire.

Putin has long deemed the presence of Nato troops near Russia’s borders as an affront that he cannot accept. There are suggestions that, in an eventual peace deal, Mr Trump could withdraw some of the 30,000 US troops in Europe, giving Moscow greater breathing space in what it considers its own back yard.

Mr Trump could suggest that the only way for him to be able to take such a controversial step is if Putin immediately proves his willingness for peace – a move that would, in addition, allow the two leaders to revel in confounding the dire predictions of many Western leaders.

Linked to this, Mr Trump can tie Russia’s eventual re-acceptance into the G7, and other diplomatic forums, as conditional on a speedy ceasefire.

Readers on Putin’s reluctance to accept ceasefire deal

Pete Nicholls

“That is exactly the response I was expecting. Putin has absolutely no reason or wish to stop pushing Ukraine back until the whole country is taken!”

James Coombes

“If Putin doesn’t accept then this war needs to be finished. The West needs to unleash the shackles, provide appropriate air support and all territory returned to Ukraine.”

Chris Shaw

“How stupid do the Americans look, they switch off aid and intel to Ukraine, they gift Russia the upper hand and now wonder why the Russians are not coming to the table.”

Tony Walker

“Only when war comes to his own country will they sit and take notice and the Russian people may see their regime for what it is. That’s how wars work!”

D.N.

“Russia’s continual attacks on civilians shows the contempt they have for ‘peace’. No negotiations will ever work because they simply cannot be trusted.”

David Kiefer

“I don’t think Putin can stop the war really, he has failed on so many of his objectives that have cost so many casualties, any ceasefire will make him look weak at home.”

For Putin, a 30-day pause in fighting – a period over which he is unlikely to fundamentally reshape the battlefield – would be a relatively small pill to swallow in return for eventual normalisation of relations with the US and the fulfilment of his opposition to Nato proximity.

To push him in that direction, it is possible to imagine Mr Trump presenting the Russian leader with a full list of potential diplomatic and economic projects, such as joint development of the Arctic, and saying that for every day Putin delays this confidence-building ceasefire, more of those options will be taken off the table.

Sanctions relief

The second key pressure point relates to the existing measures that the US has imposed on Russia – in particular sanctions.

Earlier this month, Mr Trump expressed his first sign of frustration with Moscow, warning that he was ready to slap fresh sanctions on the regime if it kept “pounding” Ukraine while he sought peace.

There is comparatively little Washington can do in terms of ratcheting up measures on Russian industry – its trade surplus has more than halved (from $337 billion to $151 billion) thanks to existing restrictions on its energy, mining and luxury goods industries. But the US could impose secondary sanctions on nations that have helped Russia avoid them so far – for example, India, which has snapped up Russian oil.

Conversely, the US president could frame his willingness to lift sanctions on Russian energy, a key Putin demand, in line with this 30-day ceasefire. Stop fighting, and we can start talking immediately about relief, Mr Trump could say.

There are specific cherries that the US president could dangle in front of the Russian leader, too, such as the US purchasing the Nord Stream 2 project and overseeing the operation of pipelines that would once again transport Russian gas into Europe.

Military restrictions

The final source of US leverage is weaponry and military support for Ukraine. Putin’s troops have advanced rapidly in Kursk following Mr Trump’s decision to suspend intelligence-sharing (after Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, the taps are back on).

The Russian president is sure to try to make such support part of the deal for this initial ceasefire. It would not please Kyiv or its European allies, but Mr Trump could once more suspend the assistance, framing it as in line with his desire to act as a “neutral” arbiter of peace.

If that is the carrot, the sticks are obvious: vastly stepped-up supplies of tanks, missiles and armoured fighting vehicles.

This is your opportunity, the US president could privately say; take it or you will never get a better one.

……….

Comment from :

Brit in Switzerland

America could turn off the lights in Moscow, deactivate their missiles and make AI turn on the state. Trump has scary options.

Inna Café

None of the wishy-washy pressure options listed here correspond remotely with Trump’s own threat to “ruin” Russia. Russia is resource-independent; and even the EU Is still sourcing energy from Russia, still banking with Russia. So, either there are further options, or Trump is bloviating.

Christos Fotinakos

Barker is deluded in his analysis. Nothing will desist Trump’s mate Putin from either taking over all of Ukraine or installing a puppet regime, which adds up to the same, especially with Trump as president. To save face with his core supporters who are sucking deep on Russian propaganda blaming Ukraine and NATO for the war, Trump will join Putin in affecting regime change suiting Russia. Then Trump will claim he achieved peace, with Ukraine sacrificed in everything but name. Anyone believing Trump’s bluster now probably believed his statement he could finish the war in a day, which always meant dumping Ukraine.

Andrew Schofield

Already celebrating with a trip to Kursk, Putin is showing exactly what he thinks of Trump’s ceasefire proposal which, even if accepted, would only last 30 days and is effectively meaningless.

Kelvin Clarke

Russia is retreating at Pokrovske and Toretske in Ukraine. Their military and economic situations are dire.

It is Putin who has no cards.

John Turner

Rather disturbing to realise that everything such as Nordstream 2 which presumably means Germany buying Russian gas again goes back to normal as if nothing ever happened. What about the enormous losses British and European companies incurred due to Russian aggression , not to mention aircraft being stolen by Russia to the detriment of western aircraft lessors etc. Are sanctions going to be removed at the drop of a hat?

Granary Sourdough

Reply to John Turner

All this presupposes that Europe’s desperation to restore America’s nuclear protection results in its complete acquiescence to whatever terms Trump offers to Putin which involve Europe. I don’t see that. Gas flowing through Nordstream 2, Aercap and others leasing aircraft to Russian airlines, sanctions lifted on oligarchs? Not going to happen.

Paul J W

I am sure Ukraine wants and end to this war they didn’t start.

This said, it looks like it comes with a price, territory for Russia, and mineral rights for the US. Difficult not to have a heavy heart for their plight, sandwiched between two super powers carving up their country.

Martin Fielding

Trump could of course stop toadying to Putin and throw his weight behind Ukraine. Weapons and money aside, he could use his influence (or perhaps threats) to rein in countries like India who are assisting Russia by buying its oil and gas.

Andrew Park

There’s no place for fascist mass-murdering Russia sitting with the G7. If Trump wants that the other countries can and should simply boycott.