What the US election means for Kyiv

Svitlana Moronets

Nov 1, 2024

Greetings from D.C.! Next week will tell whether America still wants to back Ukraine’s fight, and I am here to witness it. It’s no exaggeration to say that Ukrainians have been on edge recently. The talk of victory is long gone; people now worry about surviving the upcoming winter. The air attacks are becoming more frequent. The Russian troops are rapidly advancing in the Donetsk region. To make things worse, North Korean forces have arrived in the Kursk region and will soon join the fight.

The US has described it as a sign of Russia’s ‘desperation’, but Ukrainians view it as evidence that Russia has stronger alliances than they do. ‘They have allies, we have partners,’ said Ukraine’s intelligence chief last week. Volodymyr Zelensky has forgotten about usual diplomatic restraint and has been quite emotional in his recent statements. This week, he complained after US officials leaked the classified part of his ‘victory plan’ to the media.

On Tuesday, the New York Times published an article saying Zelensky asked Biden for long-range Tomahawk missiles as part of a non-nuclear deterrence package against Russia. ‘It was confidential information between Ukraine and the White House,’ Zelensky told a press briefing with Nordic journalists the next day. ‘How to understand these messages? So, it means, between partners there [are] not any confidential things!’

Zelensky said every time he talks about long-range weapons and permission for Ukraine to use them on Russian territory, some countries say this would cross a ‘red line’ and provoke an escalation from Russia. The Ukrainian President added: ‘Excuse me, but I believe that North Korean soldiers are an escalation.’ He argued that when Vladimir Putin decided to involve North Korean troops in the war, he was testing the reaction of the West and South Korea. If, as happened a decade ago when Russia took Crimea, the West responds with mere condemnation rather than action, Putin will surely keep increasing the North Korean contingent.

So far, the US has delivered just 10 per cent of the $61 billion aid package that was approved by Congress in April. ‘It’s not funny,’ Zelensky said, as Ukraine had planned its military operations around the assistance arriving on time. ‘If you give your word, you have to keep it.’ Nato members also pledged to deliver ‘six or seven’ air defence systems, but Ukraine has yet to receive this number, he said.

The upcoming election has distracted the US from world issues, while Europe has been waiting to see what the results will bring. Meanwhile, aid to Ukraine has been stalling. Joe Biden has refused to address North Korea’s involvement in the war. A divided America makes the western alliance look weaker than ever – and Putin is taking full advantage of it.

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Quote of the week

‘We want to live. Is it too much?’

– Volodymyr Zelensky responds to those telling him he ‘wants too much’ after seeing his victory plan.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

Around 8,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region and will join the war soon, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
A South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine to share intelligence on North Korean troops in Russia and discuss cooperation. Kyiv plans to request weapons.
Russian troops have captured the town of Selydove in the Donetsk region. Two Ukrainian women were reportedly shot by Russian soldiers.
Ukraine’s proposed budget for next year has passed its first reading. Some £40bn has been allocated for defence and military spending.
Ukraine and Russia have resumed talks about stopping attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure.
Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the US for Tomahawk missiles, which have a 1,500-mile range, in the classified part of his ‘victory plan’.
Zelensky has said that potential peace talks with Russia could take place in India, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acting as a mediator.
Two US lawmakers have appealed to Joe Biden to allow Poland to shoot down Russian missiles over western Ukraine.
The EU has criticised the United News telethon, Ukraine’s state-run pool of TV channels which was created during wartime, and urged Kyiv to restore a ‘pluralistic media landscape’.
Kyiv is preparing a bilateral cooperation document with Budapest ‘to clear up misunderstandings’, with Zelensky asking Hungary not to block Ukraine’s invitation to Nato.
Russia’s VTB Bank is offering Russian citizens preferential mortgages in the occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Romania has prepared a draft law to shoot down drones breaching its airspace during Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure.
The US has sanctioned nearly 400 entities and individuals directly or indirectly involved in supporting the war in Ukraine.