It Could Make Things Somewhat Better For Ukraine–Or Much Worse

PHILLIPS P. OBRIEN

APR 21, 2025

Hi All,

Well, not long after I sent out yesterday’s weekend update with an outline of what seemed to be a US-Russian Pact, it was confirmed in the Wall Street Journal that this is indeed what the US was trying to force Ukraine to accept. The Trump plan seems tailor-made to give Putin what he wants. The Russians keep all occupied territory and in the case of Crimea, Ukraine must cede legal title. This alone makes the deal horrific, as it means that conquest would have been legalized, indeed sanctioned, in post 1945 Europe. However that is not all. Its also made clear in the deal that Ukraine is to be kept out of NATO. And we can assume that sanctions on Russia would either be strongly relaxed or even eliminated. We know that because Trump, in a tweet that seems aimed to try and pressure Ukraine into agreeing the deal, discussed doing “Big Business” with the United States.

This was where we were heading since the US started threatening to walk away from these negotiations if the different parties (actually mostly the Ukrainians) did not accept. Its why we seem to be approaching a real crisis—which might see either the US walking away or Ukraine being bullied into a bad deal. Both are fraught with some real dangers.

I’ve seen some comments saying it would be a good thing for Ukraine if the USA withdrew from active involvement in the Russo-Ukraine War. I understand some of what they are saying, but being the miserable pessimist that I am, I also see a chance that such a move could go badly wrong (because the USA would not in essence become neutral but side more openly with Russia). I thought it might be useful therefore to sketch out the possible good news and then contrast it with the possible very bad, to show the different possible permutations of the USA is “done” with the war.
The big reason I’m a pessimist is that the possible second and third order effects of such a development are very worrying. For instance, its not clear that the optimistic case takes into consideration the impact that such a move could have on other powers—particularly China. So to try and sum up the different visions, here are the reasons for optimism and the reasons for pessimism.

The Optimistic Case—The US Becomes Neutral
The optimistic case is based on key development—that the USA being “done” with the war results in the USA adopting a form of neutrality. It certainly would not aid Ukraine any more (that to me is science fiction) but it would not also try and provide much new support for Russia. In other words, the USA would not get back to business with Putin, would not try to relax sanctions, and would retreat into what might best be called Euro-Isolationism. The US would instead focus more and more on security in the Indo-Pacific, occupying Chinese resources and keeping Chinese aid to Russia limited (if only unconsciously).
In that case, there is a plausible good case scenario that can be constructed. The key thing for this is that the European coalition of the willing is energized/petrified enough by the US withdrawal to kick into high gear immediately. Knowing the US will not pull their chestnuts out of the fire, a powerful coalition of European states, led by the Big Four of the UK, France, Germany and Poland, organize other willing states (Nordics, Baltics, etc) to start improving their own military infrastructure and provide as much aid to Ukraine as possible. All the restraints that the USA (both Biden and Trump) had placed on European aid to Ukraine would be lifted, new weapons systems (can you say “Taurus”) will be provided and Ukraine will be allowed to use them against military targets in Russia itself.

Immediate investments will also be made to further support the remarkable growth of Ukraine’s UAV industry—which would have corresponding benefits to the military posture of the coalition of the willing states. One way to do this will be to use some of the hundreds of billions of euros in seized Russian assets to support the Ukrainian war effort.
The coalition states will even start serious planning for the insertion of some European troops into Ukraine. I’m not talking about front line combat duty, but European forces could be prepared to go into Ukraine to do training or even man anti-air capabilities in western Ukraine. In an extreme case, European air forces might start planning for a no-fly zone over Ukraine—though that strikes me as a little too extreme.

The ramping up of European military support for Ukraine would also have a political component. Ukrainian membership of the EU would be accelerated and a clear time-line put into place to make it clear to the Ukrainians (and the Russians) that Ukraine’s future is in Europe.
The chance of all of these steps following a US withdrawal from the war is, I would argue, rather small. That being said, they all have an element of plausibility about them, and the reality of the US leaving the field might, just might, propel European states to start thinking and acting in their own strategic interest. Even two of these steps could make a big difference, if they all happened than the US pulling out might not be such a bad thing for Ukraine.

The Pessimistic Case—The US Openly Aligns With Russia

OK, brace yourself. There is no reason to expect that if the US is “done” with trying to negotiate and end of the war, that the US would adopt a position of disinterested neutrality towards Russia and Ukraine. As I’ve tried to say (probably too much) in this Substack, Trump is not neutral between Russia and Ukraine. He is an instinctive supporter of Putin and Russia—which explains the reason the US negotiations seem so cack-handed. The US has been trying to force Ukraine to accept a peace that is in Putin’s interest and Ukraine is resisting. Trump’s growing frustration is almost entirely with Ukraine—for not bending to his and Putin’s wishes.
Therefore, there is a strong possibility that Trump being “done” with the war means Trump would be done pretending to be a neutral negotiator. He would therefore be freed to be what he is—a supporter of Putin. Now I do not believe that this would mean US troops or weapons would go to Russia. However I would not be surprised if Russia received interesting pieces of intelligence from the USA and, even more likely, if Trump moved quickly to remove the USA from the sanctions regime that has been imposed on Russia.

I am not convinced by the arguments of people saying Trump would be too worried about the reaction to such a move in Europe. He despises Europe and would not worry much about them—especially if he works out a deal with China (which is far more likely than people understand).
If the US announces it is leaving the sanctions regime, here is where the second and third order effects kick in—and China enters into the picture. So far in this war China has actually undertaken a careful dance. The Chinese want the Russians to win and are aiding them where they can. However, the Chinese have also not wanted to fall afoul of the sanctions regime which would cripple the ability of sanctioned companies to do business with much of the rest of the world.

This Chinese dance has meant that the they have provided the Russians with militarily useful components and bought lots of oil (at discount prices) from the Russians—helping keep the Russian economy functioning. On the other hand, the Chinese have not provided much in the way of finished munitions to the Russians.
If the Chinese feel the US withdrawing or even weakening the sanctions regime would allow them to supply the Russians with finished munitions—then this would be ominous. China is the manufacturing superpower of the moment. They make more goods, and that includes military goods, than any other country—by a long way. If they really decided to aid Russia strongly, they could provide an amount of military hardware to Russia that would dwarf what Ukraine has received from Europe.

Just one example, China is the world’s mega-super-duper power when it comes to UAV manufacturing. One CSIS report on the subject claimed that the Chinese produce about 80% of the world’s commercial UAV market. Here is a quote.
China is the undisputed leader in commercial drone production. The DJI Technology Company, a Chinese company and the world’s largest commercial drone manufacturer, holds a remarkable 90 percent share of the U.S. commercial drone market and 80 percent of the global consumer drone market. China also leads in the production of essential drone components, such as small lithium-ion batteries, with Contemporary Amperex Technology Company, Limited, being the largest battery maker by capacity. Ukraine heavily relies on Chinese components and pre-assembled drones (Kyiv purchased 60 percent of DJI’s global production of Mavic quadcopters in 2023).

If the Chinese decided to devote only a fraction of this capacity to making UAVs for Russia, they would provide massive support in this area. And such support could be replicated in practically any other area. Russia is running out of vehicles—not any more. The Chinese could provide massive number of military grade vehicles from tanks to trucks to the Russians—as well as ammunition, etc.
The whole prospect of Russia experiencing equipment shortages would be ended—and the Russian military could be bountifully supplied by the Chinese—and in a relatively short period of time.

This points out the terrifying prospect of both the USA and China in essence backing Russia. While Russia is weak, the USA and China combined dominate the world in high tech, military capabilities, etc etc. And they would now both be backing the same side—which would be a historic development (and not in a good way).

The idea that Europe could balance active US-Chinese support Russia by supporting Ukraine seems rather optimistic. Europe still cant bring wean itself off of Trump at present—most likely active US support for Russia would lead to a European crisis that would see European states putting pressure on Ukraine to take a deal, any deal, to try and stop the fighting.

Conclusion

Whether a US withdrawal from the war would be a good thing or bad thing for Ukraine very much hinges on the US understanding of withdrawal. If that means full neutrality and non-involvement, that possibly could be a good thing if Europe gets its act together. However, if US withdrawal means getting more in bed with Putin, the implications of that would be worrying for Ukraine and all of Europe. One thing is certain, if the US does walk away—everything will change in the war.