Roland Oliphant. Senior Foreign Correspondent
03 November 2024
When America elects a president, the whole world watches – not just for the spectacle and the drama, but because such is the United States’s global influence that billions of people without a vote stand to be affected by the outcome.
From the blasted tree lines of eastern Ukraine to the ruins of Gaza and the typhoon-blown waves of the Taiwan Strait; in the crowded buses running down Tehran’s Ali Vasr Avenue, the high rises of Beijing and the overheated, parquet-floored rooms of the presidential administration in Moscow, the same question is being asked: Who will win on Tuesday night?
Ukraine
Nowhere are the stakes higher than for Ukraine where everyone understands that the country’s survival is dependent on the US.
Soldiers in the east do not rely solely on American weapons, vehicles, ammunition.
But Ukraine’s British, European, and other allies are in no position to provide “anything like” the same level of support if the US contribution were to shrink or vanish, said Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute.
The outcome of the election is thus literally an existential question.
But the candidates have been so vague about their plans, there’s little consensus about who would be better – or least bad.
“They are like four competing opinions and I can’t tell which is most popular,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defence minister, said from Kyiv.
“With Harris, the most pessimistic view, which is quite widespread, is that if she wins she will just more or less continue Biden’s policy – and we’ll be a long, long time in this war.
“Of course, some people say ‘no, no it will be different’. Some optimists think it will be much more effective and end the war.”
“On Trump, it’s the same difference: Some are definitely very afraid that he will cut the deal with Putin, we will lose the occupied territories, and he will say ‘if you guys disagree, I am not going to send anything at all’,” said Mr Zagorodnyuk.
“Alternatively, an equal amount of people think that because he has no escalation anxiety, because he is very transactional and bold, he may be exactly what we need to win the war.
“Because the only way to get out of the situation we’re now in is radical, out-of-the-box thinking. There are some very, very smart people who think that,” he added.
Trump is on record saying that if he wins on Thursday he will get on the phone to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to force a peace deal before his inauguration in January.
He has been vague about exactly how he would do this.
But his running mate JD Vance has said Russia should keep the territory it has occupied and the surviving rump of Ukraine should not be allowed to join Nato or another foreign alliance.
That, critics say, sounds a lot like a Russian victory.
But Ukrainian officials are also deeply frustrated with Joe Biden’s handling of the war – in particular a fear of escalation that they believe has deterred the White House from supplying sufficient weapons quickly enough to actually win the war.
That strategy may have kept Ukraine in the fight so far. But it has not stopped grinding Russian advances over the past year.
The view from the Kremlin is… opaque.
Before Mr Biden pulled out of the presidential race, Putin went on record saying the incumbent was the better option for Russia.
He was more predictable, more traditional in his grasp of statecraft. Altogether just an easier person to work with, the Russian president implied.
But Russia’s disinformation operations this year appear to be focused on hurting Kamala Harris and helping Trump.
Researchers have identified fake videos purporting to show Trump voters’ ballots being destroyed and Haitian illegal immigrants voting for Ms Harris to a St Petersburg troll farm.
Note: original headline was “What a Trump victory would mean for the world.” It consisted of 6 essays by Roland Oliphant. I only posted the first one : Ukraine.
The others were :
The Middle East
Tehran
China
Mexico
Elsewhere.
“But Ukraine’s British, European, and other allies are in no position to provide “anything like” the same level of support if the US contribution were to shrink or vanish, said Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute.”
Actually they are. But shamefully they won’t. We heard about “Trump-proofing”, but it never fucking happened.
Being pro-US doesn’t mean being anti-Ukraine. You’ll figure it out sooner or later 😉
Wow. So profound!
Except I never made any such absurd claim. I am exclusively opposed to those fucking pukes who promote anti-Ukraine hate, lies and conspiracies. Unlike you I don’t try to excuse them and cover up their lies.
I support anyone; regardless of their party politics, who supports Ukraine in words and deeds.
I don’t support “politicians” who threaten to murder their opponents. Mark Milley was threatened with death, Mike Pence was threatened with being hanged by deranged trumpers and now a conservative politician; Liz Cheney, has been threatened with death.
No wonder Milley, John Kelly and Ben Hodges all state that Trumpkov is a fascist.
When one retired US General says you’re a fascist that’s disturbing, when two more say it, a pattern clearly emerges.
I don’t like liars : Trumpkov claims that the US spent $300 billion on Ukraine and Europe a tiny fraction of that. The true figure is around 30% of that and most of it spent inside the USA. And the figure itself is based on dodgy valuations of old weaponry. Europe has given in excess of $120 billion, with another $50 billion on the way.
Trumpkov made the incendiary claim that Liz Cheney’s dad “killed millions of Arabs.” In fact 100,000 Iraqis died in the Gulf War; almost all of them Baathist troops.
That lie has put the Cheney family in danger from izlamonazi shitheads.
Milley has to provide armed security for himself for the rest of his life. Probably will now be the same for the Cheneys.
John Bolton says Trump will quit Nato :
Overnight derailment in Russia: 22 coal cars jump rails in Bashkortostan
In Russia, a coal train partially derailed overnight on November 3 in Bashkiria, according to the Volga Transport Prosecutor’s Office of Russia.
The incident occurred at night in the Republic of Bashkortostan, on the Iglino-Dema railway section.
A total of 22 coal-loaded cars derailed. According to the Russian prosecutor’s office, no injuries resulted from the accident.
The causes of the accident are currently unknown, and Russian authorities state that an investigation is underway.
Previously, partisans sabotaged a strategic railway line in the Kursk region of Russia. This line is essential for the continued supply of Russian troops at the front.
Additionally, partisans carried out sabotage on the railway in the Rostov region, where agents from the ATESH movement burned a relay cabinet on the main rail line that connects Russia with the occupied part of the Donetsk region.
[From RBC Ukraine, via MSN]
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/overnight-derailment-in-russia-22-coal-cars-jump-rails-in-bashkortostan/ar-AA1tqdqi
Thanks for the good news, Larry.
Fact is, nobody knows exactly what a Trump victory means for Ukraine or what a Harris victory will mean. We can only guess.
What we don’t have to guess about is Europe’s piss poor performance. They’ve known all along that the US is not the reliable partner anymore it once was. The days of Kennedy and Reagan are long gone. We have losers in the Oval Office now, and the future does not look so bright and cozy anymore. At least the near future.
Thus, Europe should’ve wakened up, stretched a bit, yawned a bit, and then get to work! If the continent wants to be secure without the US, it must get the job done and invest lots of money, both of which Europe is not willing to do. I guess it will have to get bombed first and be forced to dig its own trenches before reality hits them square in their stupid faces. The best bet for now would be to assure that Ukraine gets what it needs, and this in sufficient numbers and asap! Nothing of the sort is happening. Everyone is watching the US and hoping … hoping things will be like it used to be when they can freeload on us. That is a piss poor strategy that can get tens of millions of their people killed and maimed one day.