8 AUGUST 2023
The officials in Ukraine’s partner countries have become increasingly aware of the growing unrealism of their initial expectations for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, no longer anticipating major progress on the battlefield by autumn and fearing a “blame game” on Ukraine’s part.
Source: CNN
Details: Following weeks of Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials are receiving increasingly “sobering” assessments of the potential of Ukrainian forces to retake significant territory, four senior US and Western officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.
“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them [Ukrainians] to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior Western diplomat told CNN.
“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said lawmaker Mike Quigley, a Democrat from Illinois who has recently come back from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armoured forces.
According to Quigley, “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
The main challenge for Ukrainian forces remains breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the country’s eastern and southern parts, covered with tens of thousands of mines and an extensive network of trenches.
CNN reports that the Ukrainian army suffered “staggering losses” there, pushing the Ukrainian command to hold back some units to regroup and mitigate losses.
Quote from a senior Western diplomat: “Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line. Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
Details: A senior US official said the United States recognised the struggles faced by Ukrainian forces albeit remained hopeful for further progress.
“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” the official said.
Many officials said the coming autumn, when weather and combat conditions are expected to deteriorate, leaves Ukrainian forces with limited time to make headway.
Furthermore, Western officials say the slow progress exposes the complexity of transforming the Ukrainian army into a combined mechanised fighting force, often with only eight weeks of training on tanks and other new weapons systems supplied by the West.
A senior US military official suggested that the lack of progress on the ground is one of the reasons why Ukrainian forces are increasingly striking Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability”.
CNN says the latest estimates are a significant change from the optimism seen at the start of the counteroffensive.
These officials say these expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure from some in the West to start peace talks, including considering territorial concessions. “Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time,” Quigley said.
Some officials are concerned that the widening gap between expectations and results will lead to a “blame game” between Ukrainian officials and their Western backers, possibly generating friction within an alliance that remained largely intact for almost two years after the war began.
Quote from a senior Western official: “The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us.”
Background: At the Aspen Security Forum in July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pointed to the slow flow of weapons from the West as a reason for the slow advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: “We planned to start [the counteroffensive] in the spring, but we didn’t. Because, frankly, we don’t have enough ammunition and weapons, and we don’t have enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in [operating] these weapons.”
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The blame game is already on. I put the blame fully on the shoulders of Biden, Scholz, and Macron. What economic power is there with all three nations combined? What massive amounts of military materiel do we alone have sitting around, baking in the sun in various western states?
What did we do all those months before the offensive? We watched the orcs digging in and let Zelensky beg. We refused, delayed, then finally said aye … then we delayed some more … and finally, after wasting very precious time, we sent the promised stuff … but, a little bit of this and a little bit of that. To make things worse, we refuse to let the Ukrainians use our weapons on the territory of the filthy war criminals. And, we are still refusing to hand over vital weapons.
We pressured the Ukrainian to get going with the offensive, knowing damned well the horrific difficulties awaiting them. Attacking a larger enemy force, having less of everything … an enemy that is well-entrenched behind massive minefields and a much larger air force and artillery systems to back them up. We expect the Ukrainians to do something that NO NATO nation would do, not even with every member behind them.
It is a fact that we, the collective West, have no idea, no vision, no plan, no gumption, no courage, no foresight, no strength, no real leadership. We have the most potent economies and militaries on this planet, and we’re letting an Italian-sized economy shit on our faces.
Yep. The U.S. is mostly to blame, Biden in particular. Biden proved that he’s nothing more than he’s always been for his 50 years in Washington: a corrupt, do-nothing career politician with a propensity to screw everything up.
It’s just my opinion.
But the problem, finally, is not Obama, Buch or Trump&Biden (not sure about the two latters 🙂 ). The problem is that in 2023 you have an unprecedented and completely archaic concentration of power for a country of almost 330 million people!
I say this with great respect for US democracy. Who could give a lesson on the subject in the face of the history of this country? But the facts are there. You can return heaven and earth, but there will be no providential man or woman to solve the current problems alone.
You imagine what can Trump ca do in this affair? Terrible to imagine. Terrible.
Society(ies) have changed and the nature of dealing with such complex political and social affairs now requires political parties to be able to work together. Look at what happens in bipartisan decisions in the Senate. There are the solution. Ukraine is strong if bipartisan proposals are taken by the US.
Glory to Ukraine!
And, he didn’t serve a day in the military. He was a parasite almost his whole life.
Biden has always been a parasite. From the day of his birth until the day he dies he will have been a parasite. A coffin dodging waste of oxygen.
I see that you like Joe as much as I do.
Yes, it’s heartbreaking. So many brave men have been lost needlessly because the defenders did not have the firepower to break through the enormous orc defence network, which should never have been allowed to complete. The bastards should have been under constant long range fire; enough to wreck their efforts.
As is stands now, Ukraine has 6 weeks or so to make as much progress as possible without sacrificing too many lives; sappers in particular.
10 weeks to the heating season: Ukraine’s air defence network needs a massive influx. The vermin will again try to freeze innocent civilians with evil attacks on infrastructure.
The allies have let Ukraine down badly. The best they can do now is supply EVERYTHING that was originally requested, so that Gen Zaluzhnyi can start preparing next year’s counteroffensive.
With enough long range fires, Ukraine can continue smashing putinaZi positions right through the winter.
But I think they need 10 or 15 extra divisions of combat troops. The allies should start funding and assembling some crack teams of mercs.