Canela Lisa Paris Wray-Diaz

“FROM THE ANALYST”

RUSSIA’S DAY OF MISERY

Ukrainian control over Phuatykhatky has now been completely secured despite a stiff Russian attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian defenders.
Ukraine seemed to be expecting the attempt and they’d quickly dug in to defensive positions.
Their reserves were also not far away, hidden in small dispersed groups but able to move in for support rapidly.
Drone minelayers made it impossible for the Russians to bring up further reserves coupled to extensive artillery fired mine dispersing rounds from the day before.
Russian infantry having failed, called in thermobaric artillery and Ka-52 strikes, but the helicopters couldn’t use their stand off weapons (which are laser-on-target -to-impact and require them to have line of sight and remain stationary hovering). Two were shot down.
The situation was worsened dramatically by a Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 delivering a pair of Storm Shadow missiles. One hit the command post of the Russian 80th brigade running the operation, killing at least 24 officers and the commander. A second hit reserve concentrations behind the lines eliminating some 120+ contract soldiers.
Another strike believed to have used two missiles, hit a brand new ammunition facility the Russians have just completed at a railway station not far from Melitopol, used to deliver ammunition to this end of the front line. A massive explosion was recorded by locals and has appeared online, and the site was, according to last nights satellite images, wiped out.
What is the long term consequence of this small but clearly important battle?
It seems to have forced the Russians to accept they’ve lost Phuatykhatky, and in doing so they will have to move their lines to their east and pull them back or they will be at high risk of being overrun.
The Ukrainians have a bridgehead, they’ve managed to cut the command lines, the ammo supply and some of the tactical reserves.
That surely makes this ripe for exploitation and expanding the operation.
Meanwhile around Bakhmut a slow but steady series of advances have taken place. One of the problems there has been the number of surrendering POW’s and managing them out of the front. It’s also been very hot weather – high 25-29C has been common and more of the same expected. When you’re in full combat gear in that heat fighting and moving, it requires high levels of fitness, nutrition and water, all of which can go into short supply suddenly when logistics can’t keep up. Even light ammunition has been a problem because it’s physically hard to get it to the moving, advancing troops across fields with no roads.
Yet despite being hot and exhausted the Ukrainians are seeing success and morale us high. The Russian lines are being chipped away almost everywhere from Bakhmut to the Dnepr.
It’s a relentless chipping away too, one where for the defending Russians, it starts to become apparent that it is indeed slow, but it has a momentum to it that starts to feel you can’t stop it. Whatever you do it gets closer. If they stop it for a day the next day it comes again and again and again. It saps morale, it feels pointless trying to stop it. A malaise creeps in that all you’re doing is slowing the inevitable and what’s the point? You’re on their land at they want it back: and they are going to get it, no matter what the Russian mobiks and their brutal masters do.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 !

@WarriorsUkrainian