Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies.
July 6, 2024
During the NATO summit on 9-11 July, “you’ll also see a strong demonstration of US and Allied support for Ukraine. Allies will reaffirm that Ukraine’s future is in NATO; will make significant new announcements about how we’re increasing NATO’s military, political, and financial support for Ukraine.”
“The US will also announce new steps to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences and military capabilities to help Ukraine continue to defend themselves today and to deter Russian aggression into the future.”
The White House representative also noted that the Washington summit will send Putin a strong signal that he will not be able to outlast the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine.
Let’s dwell a bit on the last two paragraphs.
Ukraine’s partners are donating military aid that is meant to “deter future Russian aggressions”. Seriously? 10,5 years into the war and 2,5 years after the full-scale war started. Russia is believed to have suffered 99,000 killed and wounded so far trying to take Chasiv Yar, a town of a mere 14,000 people. It is only one out of 120-130 cities and villages that are exposed to daily attacks. Russia is dropping around 3,000 guided glide bombs on Ukrainian cities and frontline positions monthly. Russia used over 4,000 missiles, Shahed drones, and guided aerial bombs against Ukraine in March only. It has taken more than 550,000 casualties in total. It has destroyed more than 70% of Ukraine’s energy-generating capacity. Occupied 18% of Ukraine and is – at great costs – very slowly advancing. Putin rejects Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement and upholds his aim of the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity.
Does that sound like Russia is being deterred?
Washington summit will send Putin a “strong signal” that he will not be able to outlast the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine. Seriously? We are witnessing the rise of right-wing political power across the US and Europe. international cooperation will slowly give way to national focus and, in the worst case, closer alignment with Russia. Trump is seeking a quick end to a war he is criticising the Biden administration for spending too much money on. He is openly sympathetic to dictators in general but Putin in particular. Trump’s “peace plan” sides with what Putin offered”. He pledges not to expand NATO. France’s Le Pen calls for cancellation of authorisation for Ukraine to use French weapons to strike Russia. The Dutch government led by Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV party has been forced to compromise on Ukraine only because he is in a coalition. As late as February Wilders opposed continuing military aid to Ukraine and offering Ukrainian refugees protection. The list goes on.
The sad reality is that we don’t offer the military capabilities needed to deter Russia. Our long-term commitment is at best, vague. Only our political statements remain brave and strong … and still disconnected from our actions.
Cartoon: KAL
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Comment from :
New research conducted in Ukraine and 14 other European countries reveals that Ukraine’s determination to fight and European support for arming Ukraine have not been affected by Russian advances on the battlefield.
But lurking beneath the appearance of unity is a major divide between Ukraine and Europe on how this war should end and what the allied support is destined to achieve.
While Ukrainians want more weapons and ammunition to help them win the war, most Europeans want to give Ukraine weapons and ammunitions in order to put Kyiv in a better negotiating position to end the war.
And, while Ukrainians think they should be given membership of the EU and NATO to mark their victory, most Europeans see this as part of a settlement.
Hans Petter Midttun, the missing cure to this war is aggressive application of economic dominance. Nowhere in any discussion. USA+EU economy is multiple times greater than Russia. Why not shut down the Russian economy, isolate cash flow, preclude western business contributions etc.? This proxy war is profit generating for both the west and Putin’s record level gold stockpile. Meanwhile, Kyiv and other cities are rationing electric power as Paris welcomes Russia to the Olympics. Nothing is an accident.
As for Trump, no one knows what he’s thinking or intending re the UA-RU War. Trump never shows his cards. He produces results. What we do know is that Putin didn’t and won’t cross swords with Trump…. Putin knows his real limits and that’s why the invasion happened when Biden entered office as an already seriously compromised individual.
The war is too profitable to stop with the current political players.
Hampton Dowling, MBA PMP Or, Trump drags the US down the path of isolationism (for the stated reason of no threat to us and Ukraine needs to be brought into line by Russia anyway). So, Putin gets free rein and the rest of Europe has to fend for themselves, or lean further into the Russian camp. I agree that economic warfare has a better chance of succeeding. Still, I fear that our less altruistic or concerned oligarchs (for that is what they are here in America as well as in Europe when they care more about their bottom line than the lives of the “peasants”) will choose profit over national security. The stakes are too high, and the American oligarchs think they will have the economic power to hold Putin in check long enough for the Chinese to gobble up him and his European sycophants.
Dire overview but balanced presentation.
“We don’t offer the military capabilities needed to deter Russia.”
Hans Petter Midttun says this, we agree, and so many others, too, think the same way. Only those who make the final decisions are hampered by lack of imagination, courage, and foresight. The longer this war is allowed to drag on, the likelier it can spill over to other countries in Europe.
Having said this, we act far too feebly in defending against ruskie aggression, and we can’t even defend ourselves against mafia propaganda, election interference, and internal enemies, because we simply do not have the right people in power, so let alone achieve a victory for Ukraine and to keep ourselves from wandering into the stinking swamp of extremism.