It may be too late in a month.
June 2, 2023
Ukrainian expert Oleksandr Kirsch believes that the military and political leadership of Ukraine needs an urgent preventive strike against the Lukashenka regime.
The expert makes the following arguments:
– I completely agree with American historian Yuri Felshtinsky about the unconditional usefulness – and even necessity! A swift attack on the practically unprotected Lukashenka regime in Belarus, while such an opportunity still exists.
If Mordor manages to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, as it promises, the probability of a real nuclear war will increase manifold, because the decision to launch a nuclear strike in such a case will be made not by the Republic of Belarus, but by Russia, with the assumption that the retaliatory strike will be directed by the West, not conditionally against Moscow but against Minsk.
Such a situation would simply invite Mordor to a nuclear attack with practically no risk to itself, whereby the strike could be directed not at Ukraine, but at any of Russia’s “real” targets, i.e. its chosen NATO country.
That is why Civilisation should give Ukraine carte blanche for the swift liberation of Belarus (with the prospect of an equally swift accession of the liberated country to NATO) – through the efforts of Kalinouski’s regiment, reinforced by an even larger contingent of the AFU.
Only this option is now capable of keeping mankind from the imminent nuclear threat.
At the same time, Ukraine and the whole Europe will get a huge security zone separating it from Mordor; Moscow will be reachable not only from the south but also from the west; St. Petersburg will become much closer, and the strategically important Kaliningrad will be even close.
Russia will then have to relocate troops from Ukraine to the north to avoid the seizure of already Russian territories (for Ukraine’s “exchange fund”) and attacks on both Russian capitals of different times.
In a month (or possibly sooner!) it will be too late: then it will be an attack on a nuclear power in the worst form of such a power, because the nuclear attack is decided by some (in Russia), and retaliated by others (in unfortunate Belarus).
Ukraine and Civilization, which is helping us, must urgently get on the horn. No one knows for whom the bell will ring and where Putin will use the weapons of mass destruction (by the way, is it only “tactical”?).
I agree that military action should be initiated against Belarus, but not so much because of what Mr. Kirsch thinks. Belarus has been a staging ground for attacks against Ukraine since the very beginning of this war. It has enjoyed immunity the whole time. This alone is reason enough to invade. Another is the military advantages to be gained and the shattering political fist punch in putler’s stupid looking face if Belarus should be lost to him.
Of course they should take Belarus. But they do not have the manpower or resources to open a second front. Especially with a crucial counteroffensive on the cards.
Surely it’s not beyond the capability of the allies to engineer a coup? However, it would appear that, as others have mentioned, the men of Belarus do not have the same grit as their women, unfortunately.
The Ukrainians could take “Transnistria”, but Sandu has repeatedly refused this offer, for reasons that have not been made public.
Belarus is effectively lost once Vladolf gets his nukes in there. Time to preempt Kaliningrad too, to avoid another land bridge.
I have no idea on what is the best thing to do.
I doubt Ukraine has the capacity to conduct an offensive large enough to take over the whole of Belarus. Also, bringing war to Belarus could lead to alienation of the largely pro-Ukrainian population of Belarus.
Lukachenko is deeply unhappy about the war and although he couldn’t prevent the Russian military from using Belarus as a spring board to launch attacks on Ukraine, he managed to keep the Belarusian army out of it.
I think a war on Belarus can have many different unpredictable outcomes. And it will eat up a lot of valuable offensive capabilities which are badly needed to liberate Ukrainian territory.
I am not convinced a war against Belarus is worth it, but of course that doesn’t mean no special forces can conduct operations in Belarus.