Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

Soon after it gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine signed away its nuclear deterrent – exchanging 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles for security guarantees from the USA, Great Britain and Russia. It was quite a gamble. No nuclear-armed country is at threat from invasion, so why forfeit this security and give up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal? But Ukrainians were promised, in the Budapest Memorandum, a cast-iron guarantee. Today, Ukrainians are not just fighting a war with Russia but preparing to survive a nuclear attack.

Vladimir Putin is losing this war: Ukrainian courage and western arms are seeing to that. The number of Russians fleeing conscription has already exceeded the size of the initial invasion force, according to estimates from the Ministry of Defence. Putin’s other weapon is withholding gas, but most of Europe has found other sources.

This leaves Putin with his trump card: nuclear weapons. While some in the West think it is a bluff, Ukrainians are inclined to take him seriously. Putin has staged a signing ceremony to count as Russian four occupied Ukrainian regions – Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk. The implication is clear: they now count as Russian territory. If the Ukrainian army tries to take them back, his response could be nuclear.

I’d like to talk about the mood in Kyiv. The prospect of a nuclear attack is on everyone’s lips, just as the threat of invasion was back in February when much of the world was laughing it off. Back then, the Ukrainian media was publishing instructions on how to pack an emergency kit and where to find bomb shelters. Now, Ukrainians are asking: might his next step be to nuke Kyiv? Or maybe Lviv – the city that Russia considers a centre of Ukrainian nationalism? Where will he stop?

Ukraine is trying to ready itself for any scenario. Volodymyr Zelensky is to convene an urgent meeting of his security council. Ukrainian Intelligence puts the threat of Russia using tactical weapons against Ukraine at ‘very high’, saying that Russians will probably target ‘places along the frontlines with lots of army personnel and equipment, key command centres and critical infrastructure’. Ukrainian media keeps publishing instructions on how to survive during and after a nuclear attack. ‘Hopefully, you’ll never need it,’ they say. Which is what they said before the invasion.

Ukrainians have no option but to take it with humour. Better to smile staring death in the face rather than show fear. And there’s another feeling, which is important when trying to understand Ukraine: the extent to which people think it’s better to fight and die, rather than to give ground to Putin. In recent days, there have been jokes on Ukrainian social media about a plan to organise an orgy on Shchekavytska Mountain in Kyiv in the event of a nuclear attack. So far, there are 10,000 willing participants: a milestone in the meme war that is accompanying a real, full-scale war.

And if Russia does use nuclear weapons, Ukainians will have no option but to trust that the West will respond. Just this afternoon, Zelensky said Ukraine would submit an accelerated application to join Nato – a move that, if it was accepted, would guarantee a certain level of protection. No more ‘deep concerns’ or ‘negotiations’, but treating the enemy as the enemy. This war is fast becoming no longer just about Ukraine, but about the safety of the world.