Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

May 24, 2024

(Note : the following was published before putler’s latest “ceasefire” proposal).

In a speech this week, Republican Congressman Michael McCaul took a moment to point towards a map which showed Russian military bases within striking distance from Ukraine. To hit the targets, Kyiv would need permission to use US-supplied ATACMS missiles within Russia. McCaul used this appearance to accuse the Biden administration and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan of restricting Ukraine from using the US-supplied weapons to fire back at Moscow and depriving Ukraine of the chance to defend itself. ‘Will you change this policy so Ukraine can fight without one hand tied behind its back?’ asked McCaul. Secretary of State Antony Blinken answered that all he wanted was ‘to make sure Ukraine gets the equipment that it needs’.

As the battle for the Kharkiv region rages on, with Russian forces seizing more than 38 square miles of ground, calls for the US to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory grow louder. Some 14,000 people have fled the area, while Kyiv has redeployed some of the elite brigades from the Donetsk region, weakening the defence of Donbas. President Volodymyr Zelensky is getting particularly desperate. After initially cancelling all foreign trips due to the crisis on the front line, he’s now planning visits to France and Italy next week to urge them to lift the ban on striking Russia with donated weapons such as Scalp missiles and artillery shells.

The problem, he said, is that Russian forces are stationed in villages just across the border, launching attacks knowing that Ukraine won’t return fire. ‘They locate weapons among the Russian civilian population and are using them as cover… How can we protect ourselves?’ Zelensky asked. He added that Kyiv is in talks with allies about the possibility of using their weapons to strike targets in Russia, but ‘so far, there is nothing positive’.

Some 40,000 Russian troops have amassed north of Kharkiv. Some have advanced, capturing half of Vovchansk (a town just five kilometres from the border), while others stay back, keeping rocket and artillery launch systems on Russian soil. Ukrainian soldiers see where they are stationed – but are unable to strike them. Homemade drones are no match for the power and speed of American weapons, and Russian air defences are becoming increasingly effective.

Zelensky has previously said that ‘every western decision on military assistance for Ukraine is late by a year’. Ukraine waited for more than a year for long-range missiles (and over two for F-16 fighter jets). The decision about whether Kyiv should be allowed to strike within Russia seems destined for the same fate: granting Ukraine the ability to defend itself is seen as too much of an escalation. However, there is some hope. US lawmakers, led by Mike Turner and backed by 12 other representatives, have started a debate around lifting the ban and have asked the Pentagon to allow Ukraine to ‘use certain weapons provided by the US to conduct operations on strategic targets inside Russian territory’.

Blinken reportedly supports this proposal, but it’s unclear how many in Joe Biden’s inner circle agree – and, as yet, it hasn’t been formally presented to the President. Even House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the US should allow Ukraine to wage war ‘in the way they see fit’, adding that trying to micromanage the war effort is not good policy for the US. While Biden is one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters, he is also extremely cautious. It seems that no number of dead Ukrainians is enough to risk ‘provoking’ Putin. Yet, the UK’s recent public decision to allow Ukraine to use British weapons to strike Russia has proven these fears to be unfounded so far.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• A Russian missile attack in Kharkiv hit a local printing shop, killing seven employees and burning more than 50,000 books.
• Defence Secretary Grant Shapps accusedChina of providing (or preparing to provide) Russia with lethal aid to use in the war.
• Ukrainian forces still control about 60% of the border town of Vovchansk, amid continuous Russian assaults around Kharkiv. Russian forces are shooting civilians as they try to escape the fighting, according to Ukrainian police.
• Ukraine’s defence ministry has launchedReserve+, an app on which all draft-eligible men aged between 25 and 60 must update their military documents. Some 800,000 have done so already. If they don’t provide the details within two months, they will face severe sanctions and fees.
• Joe Biden is likely to skip the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland next month to instead attend a campaign fundraiser in Hollywood. It also reflects a broader pessimism about the conference set to help end the war on Kyiv’s terms.
• Kyiv has approved a system to grant soldiers additional holiday days if they destroy Russian military equipment.
• Ten Ukrainian soldiers have completedtraining in F-16 aircraft maintenance in the Netherlands. The country will start delivering 24 F-16s in autumn.
• Kyiv will create a temporary commission for fortifications amid growing criticism that the government had not built up defensive lines before the second Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region.
• Russia has started training drills simulating the launch of tactical nuclear weapons in occupied Ukraine, using Iskander and Kinzhal ballistic missiles with attached nuclear warheads.
• Officials in Brussels are pushing to begin formal negotiations over Ukraine joining the EU next month. They are also trying to convince Hungary to drop its objections to Ukrainian accession talks.
• Ukraine will receive the first delivery of funds stemming from the revenue of frozen Russian assets in July. The fund is thought to be worth up to $3 billion annually.
• The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots. Poland will now tighten security measures around Rzeszów-Jasionka airport – the main transit hub for foreign aid to Ukraine.

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Wider reading on the war

The shadow fleet helping Russia to evade sanctions – The Spectator

Zelensky pushes allies to step up aid and involvement in war – Reuters

Under relentless Russian assault, Ukraine adopts a defensive crouch – New York Times

Ukraine’s desperate struggle to defend Kharkiv – Economist

In Kharkiv, culture is a form of defence – The Spectator

In pictures

Washington, DC: Republican Congressman Michael McCaul shows a map of Russian military bases within the range of ATACMS missiles and calls for the US to allow Ukraine to use these weapons to strike inside Russia. (Credit: C-Span3)

Quote of the week

‘If someone thinks that we have to be in a weak position and to sit and wait for death to come and get us, you won’t get what you want, neither our death nor our weakness. It’s better to be on Ukraine’s side because the more military targets we can strike on the territory of the Russian Federation, the sooner this war will end with Ukraine’s victory’.

– Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, speaks after recent discussions about whether Ukraine has the right to use weapons supplied by its partners to strike targets in Russia.

The war in numbers

Ukrainian convicts applying to join the army:

3,000

The country has a prison population of around 48,000

Civilians who have fled the area around Kharkiv:

14,000

Russian forces are trying to advance towards the city

Ukrainian budget deficit due to military spending:

$5bn

The overall defence budget is $40bn.

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk