Mar 1, 2024

Five small boats carrying Ukrainian military personnel this week attempted to land on the occupied Tendrivska Spit, a 40-mile sliver of land that sticks out of southern Ukraine near the Kherson region. The Russians saw them coming and opened fire, killing the crews on four of the boats. One boat escaped. Russia claims to have killed 20 troops and seized a cache of weapons, including rifles, machine guns and grenade launchers (some of American and German origin).

Gruesome images of the bodies of the Ukrainians surfaced on Russian Telegram channels, drawing confirmation from Kyiv that ‘soldiers of the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center died heroically during a combat mission in a clash with Russian invaders… the soldiers accepted their final battle, remaining in formation forever’. The goal of their sacrifice remains undisclosed. Quite possibly it could have been no more than planting a Ukrainian flag on a sandbank in the Black Sea, killing some Russians and returning home. Such a quick ‘victory’ could go viral on social media and boost morale. Instead, Ukrainians are in mourning.

The war continues to go badly. After capturing Avdiivka in Donetsk oblast, Russian troops kept going and took four miles more land: seizing the villages of Lastochkyne, Stepove and Severne. Ukrainian soldiers have retreated to Tonenke-Orlivka-Berdychi villages, where they have dug trenches and will rely on the local terrain (including a cascade of water reservoirs) to slow the enemy’s advances.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s new army chief, has arrived at the front line to remedy what he described as ‘certain miscalculations’ made during the retreat, and to strengthen the defensive line. This may help Ukrainian troops defend themselves against infantry units and the artillery of the Russian army, but there is no protection against half-tonne guided bombs being dropped by SU-34s (this was how Avdiivka was captured). F-16 jets won’t arrive until July at the earliest, by which time the Russian offensive may have gained significant momentum.

So Russian forces are on the move: seeking to force Ukrainian troops out of the four oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia) which Vladimir Putin has already declared to be part of Russia, plus Kharkiv oblast. Moscow has ‘regained the theatre-wide initiative and will be able to pursue offensive operations when and where they choose’, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Intense fighting is taking place around Bakhmut as the Russians try to advance toward the city of Chasiv Yar. The 3rd Assault Brigade reported that it knocked out some Russian troops from the town of Krasnohorivka – but that it was expecting them to return for another battle with military reinforcements.

Ukrainian soldiers have seen the implications of losing in battle. Soldiers who surrender as prisoners of war are being executed. At least four such executions of Ukrainian PoWs, in defiance of the Geneva Convention, have been captured on drone cameras in this month: soldiers killed after raising their hands in the air, indicating they are unarmed and pose no threat. The morale of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers is low; they have few weapons and have to ration the artillery shells. With each passing day, the front line inches further westward.

None of this seems to be enough for Mike Johnson, the US House Speaker, to approve the $60 billion in emergency national security funding intended for Ukraine. He holds the outcome of the war in his hands. Last weekend, Volodymyr Zelensky said that 31,000 Ukrainian fighters have been killed by Russia’s war so far. This count will keep soaring unless Ukraine receives immediate help.