Sep 13, 2026
Ukrainian forces have largely offset Russia’s territorial gains since March 2026 while conducting successful counteroffensive operations on several sectors of the front, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to ISW on September 12, Ukrainian forces in late 2025 and throughout 2026 have increasingly challenged Russia’s battlefield initiative, marking the first sustained shift of this kind since Ukraine’s Kursk offensive in August 2024.
ISW assessed that since March, Ukrainian operations have reduced Russia’s net territorial gains to nearly zero. Ukrainian forces have carried out counteroffensive operations in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions, disrupting several Russian operational objectives.
In the Kupiansk area, Ukrainian troops regained positions inside and around the city and subsequently repelled Russian attempts to retake them, according to ISW.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations also prevented Russian forces from advancing further into the Dnipropetrovsk region and eliminated a significant Russian salient that had threatened the northern flank of Sloviansk and Ukraine’s broader defensive belt in the Donetsk region.
Russia continues to make advances in some areas. ISW reported limited but significant Russian gains in and around Kostiantynivka, as well as advances east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Russian forces, however, continue to commit resources to maintain offensive momentum in these sectors.
The assessment indicates that neither side currently holds an uncontested initiative across the entire front, with Ukrainian counteroffensive actions increasingly affecting Russia’s ability to convert local advances into sustained territorial gains.
According to ISW, additional mobilization could be intended to restore Russia’s capacity to seize territory and maintain offensive pressure. It remains unclear, however, whether another mobilization campaign would significantly change the battlefield situation.
Earlier, ISW assessed that at Russia’s August 2026 rate of advance, its forces would need until October 2032 to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donetsk region, far beyond Moscow’s stated goal of taking the entire region by the end of 2026.
Whatever happens in diplomacy, socially, or economically, in times of war, what really counts is what happens on the battlefield. And on Ukraine’s battlefields, the cockroach army is not doing so well.