The end of summer.
SEP 01, 2026
Tomorrow will be September 1st; the end of summer and the end of Russia’s hopes for a breakthrough in Donbas. Putin still tries to convince himself he can kill his way to victory by continuing with his failed, forty-two-month strategy of launching mass against precision and hoping he can wear Ukraine down. It failed in year one and continues to fail as we approach year five.
Putin has succeeded in killing or maiming 1.4 million of his own people but continues launching them at Ukrainian defences that grow stronger every month. Trapped by Ukraine’s ‘space for time’ and ‘precision against mass’ strategy, Putin has failed. The defences Russia used against Napoleon and Hitler have been used against Russia with great efficiency.
Despite enormous losses, Russia has made no strategic advances and obtained no significant territorial gains. Where they have claimed territory it is often only the presence of a few infiltrators raising flags for propaganda reasons, on a pile of rubble in the remains of what was once a village. This year is the first year Ukraine has recovered more territory than it has lost, but on both sides the quantity of ground taken is insignificant. Estimates of Ukraine gaining 700 km2 merely emphasise the land battle is stagnant. Russian casualties, however, have been estimated at 8/1 in favour of Ukraine. Russian soldiers are now predominantly unwilling conscripts far from home who will surrender or desert if they can.
Russia has maintained ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities with some success; in the sense the media will focus on terror strikes against civilians and dominate the news. Supplies of new missiles from North Korea have refilled their stockpiles. The Korean weapons are not renowned for their reliability or accuracy, so are often directed at cities rather than specific targets. These Korean resupplies are a temporary escalation. North Korea’s ability to maintain a continuous supply line will be slowed by their manufacturing capacity. They have sold their stockpiles and could not cope with filling Russian war demands for a protracted period.
Ukraine lost the advantage it held in air air-defence after their Patriot missile stocks began to run out. What remains, must be used to defend vital infrastructure like communications, power and water. The civilian population will suffer the consequences until new anti-ballistic missile defences like Ukraine’s new Frejya systems come online.
The Russian Black Sea fleet has retreated to Novorossiysk but is unable to go to sea for fear of being finished off by loitering marine drones; each one capable of sinking a capital ship. Even in port Russian warships have been hit and damaged. Russia cannot reinforce or replace their lost ships in the Black Sea because Turkey will not allow them to pass through the Bosphorus. The Black Sea fleet is to all intents, defeated.
Following this naval defeat, Crimea is undefended and untenable. Russia cannot resupply Crimea by sea, land or air. Civilians in Crimea are suffering water and power cuts every day. There is no fuel for civilian transport. Only the army have fuel, and their supplies are dwindling rapidly. Ukraine continues to deplete Crimean air defences but leaves Kerch Bridge open for the inevitable Russian withdrawal or surrender. Crimea is under siege and Russia has no spare capacity available to relieve it. Ukraine need not launch a ground or sea offensive. Crimea will fall without Ukraine taking heavy losses or wasting their resources.
Putin makes threats of a new mobilisation, quoting figures that have risen from 300,000 to 800,000 in their paid social media outlets. This has prompted a new mass exodus of emigres out through Georgia whose border is still open to civilian traffic.
There is hype and noise but to date very little determination to push through any such mobilisation. It would reduce the labour force in vital industries and would turn Putin’s main support group, the middle classes in Moscow and St Petersburg against him as they are forced into the meat grinder for the first time.
Putin makes more threats towards UK leadership for supplying Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. He has been doing that since Boris Johnson stood firmly at Zelensky’s side in 2022. Assassination is always a concern but again it is noise rather than action. Generals only make public threats to distract, frighten or deceive their enemies. If they wanted to kill someone, they wouldn’t tell them first.
Russia is under pressure militarily and economically; winter is coming yet again. Fuel supplies will become the deciding issue behind the front lines. Ukraine will continue to focus most of their air attacks on Russian refineries. Without refined fuels no modern society can function. Refineries produce gasolene, diesel, aviation fuel and every other petrochemical essential for industry and communications. No petrol, no transport, no heat, no food, no power no economy, no war!
Ukraine will focus, focus, focus, on depleting Russia’s ability to maintain war by continuing to strike the refineries. Ukrainian missiles are hitting as far as 2000km into Russia. No sooner is damage repaired than the same targets are hit again. Winter demands from the major cities will add even more pressure. Remaining civilians with sufficient funds will be looking for an exit.
Petrol prices have increased by 50% in Moscow with queues at petrol stations running back for several kilometres. Workers cannot get to work; if they could, the price of fuel would be more than they would earn. The black market is returning to a nation which thought they had left all that behind with the USSR.
Ukraine has held the front line and retaken some territory.
Ukraine has increased production of drones to more than1 million per year, has increased drone and cruise missile range up to as much as 2000km into Russia
Reduced refinery production rates by 30%.
Ukraine has isolated Crimea and can wait for winter to add to the suffering of the people who remain there.
Maintained international support with enormous diplomatic efforts from President Zelensky and his government. After four years the grey shows in Zelensky’s beard as a sign of how much he has given from himself to lead his country. In a recent public statement, he called for his armies to launch 1000 long range drones against Russia every day. They can and they will.
Zelensky says Putin is the only one who will not talk seriously about peace and this is true, but Putin is now in a battle for his personal survival and has little choice but to continue. At come point the Russian army or FSB must intervene to save Russia as an existing nation. As wars get closer to their conclusions the situation always becomes more desperate and losses increase. It is the sad price of victory or defeat.
Huge sums of Russian money are still being spent on social media especially on You Tube with channels like Wion, Hindustani Times and Times of India. In the USA and UK, corporate media (to their shame) has forgotten about Ukraine and only shows interest when Putin, Lavrov or Medvedev make new threats about ‘serious consequences’ unable to realise the ‘consequences’ they refer to are already upon us and we have accepted them.
In the west, the world is waiting, (or hoping) for Trump to die, to restore some version of civilised normality to the world stage. The worst thing about stupidity is its unpredictability. No one knows what November will bring in the USA, so the world has as far as possible written them out of the Ukraine process. Trump supported Putin and Russia against Ukraine and backed a loser.
Ukraine supported by the outstanding efforts of the coalition of the willing, will continue to deplete Russia’s ability to maintain war. To obtain peace Russia must withdraw from Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Dnipro and go home.
Slava Ukraini!
I write to fight.
Robin Horsfall
https://robinhorsfall.co.uk/about/
Trump supported Putin and Russia against Ukraine and backed a loser.”
Agreed.
But Ukraine’s allies are nowhere near providing the full level of support that Ukraine needs.
Robin has just posted again :
President Zelensky’s recent speech at the NATO summit was a prime example of genuine strength combined with diplomacy and reason. He outlined his nation’s strengths, weakness, expectations and hopes for the coming months.
Ukraine leads the world in modern warfare technology and over four years has halted an invasion by a larger and richer aggressor by utilising their available skills, the greatest of which are Ukraine’s willingness to fight, their innovations and technical expertise and a sound understanding of military science. Ukraine sacrificed land for time, and they are now pushing back hard and look forward to an eventual victory.
The president explained his greatest concern was to improve his air defence capability against Russian ballistic missiles. The supply of Patriot missiles has run out leaving Russia free to pound civilian population areas in Kyiv. The president asked the USA to provide Ukraine with a licence to manufacture their own missiles.
At a meeting with Trump some days later, President Zelensky sat politely by and managed to keep a straight face as Trump referred to him as ‘President Putin.’ After the meeting Trump did provisionally agree to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles, but President Zelensky has no illusions about the sincerity of such comments.
Ukraine is dominating the war with the destruction of Russin oil infrastructure. Russia cannot continue to fight much longer without fuel. Persistent and successful attacks on Russian oil refineries are bringing Russia to its knees. On the front lines where there are Russian vehicles remaining, there are strict limits of gasoline and diesel. When fuel moves in tankers it gets destroyed by drone attacks. All roads in the battle zones are lined with endless walls of burnt-out vehicles ranging from tanks to motor-cycles.
Behind the lines Russians are sitting in eighteen-hour queues to obtain a ration of fuel for their personal cars. In Crimea there is no fuel available for civilians. Societal norms are beginning to break down as people resort to theft and violence out of desperation. Without fuel food cannot get to market, the harvest cannot be brought in from the fields. As corn ripens, shops are running out of products to sell and inflation is soaring. Putin’s war is about to turn into a humanitarian crisis imposed on his own people by his determination to continue his war.
Some have claimed Russia can mobilise a million more soldiers, but no one will explain how they will transport them to the war zone, or how they will house, clothe, feed, and sustain them and that’s all before providing training, arms, and ammunition. Existing Russian soldiers are stealing from one another already. Desertion and surrender rates have become unmanageable. When soldiers have no hope they understand the best hope they have is surrender. Russian drone operators maintain constant surveillance over their own troops to prevent such actions and kill anyone who retreats of attempts to give in.
In combination with a lack of fuel there is a lack of money. The Russian national wealth fund has been spent. What income does come in from reduced deliveries of oil are no longer sufficient to maintain the account. Putin is robbing his own banks as a short-term hope to keep his war going for a few more months. Putin lost this war the day he failed to take Kyiv in 2022, but he still cannot accept that failure. He will wipe out his own people rather than change direction.
There are increasing reports of resistance from within Russian society. Ultimately it must be Russians with vested interests, or Russian who are starving who will replace Putin and accept the inevitable. The issue then is who could replace him and gain the support of the west for recovery. Russia might have to become a vassal state to China to survive.
The war will drag towards another winter before the final cracks appear. Until then, thousands more will die for the intransigence of one man.
Ukraine is the strongest military nation in Europe and the most experienced in the world. President Zelensky wants his army to become part of Europe and NATO and only a fool (or Trump) would deny him those requests.
If we don’t get him, someone else will!
Slava Ukraini!
I write to fight.
“In the west, the world is waiting, (or hoping) for Trump to die, to restore some version of civilised normality to the world stage.”
Hoping … everyone I know hopes this traitor and child rapist will die.