Security guarantees are not worth the paper they are written on. Kyiv requires resources to hold the line

Oleksiy Goncharenko

26 August 2025 1:21pm BST

When Ukraine gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in 1994, it did so in exchange for what many believed were security guarantees.

The Budapest Memorandum, signed by the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia, pledged to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But when Russia invaded in 2014, and again in 2022, those pledges dissolved into thin air. Ukraine was left to defend itself and discovered what paper ‘guarantees’ really meant: very little.

Today, once again, both Ukraine and the West are preoccupied with the language of “security guarantees”. We search for memoranda, we attempt to craft formulas that resemble Nato’s Article 5 without truly being Article 5 – something that looks like a commitment but avoids the responsibility of one. The truth is that this exercise reflects a deeper uncertainty: the West does not know what it is prepared to offer.

Let us be realistic. No foreign soldiers will come to fight for Ukraine. History has already proved that paper promises do not stop tanks or missiles. What matters is not a memorandum but the strength of Ukraine’s own army. And here lies the problem: our economy has been shattered, our infrastructure devastated, and we cannot bear this burden alone.

If we are speaking about guarantees, then let’s be real. There are only four real security guarantees for Ukraine: a strong and modern army, steady supplies of weapons and ammunition, secure financing for the defence budget and deep integration with Western defence industries.

Everything else – memoranda, declarations, diplomatic formulas – is rhetoric.

Ukraine must preserve a powerful army. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demanded a reduction in Ukraine’s forces, at one point calling for a fivefold cut to just 50,000 troops. But the reality is simple: only an army can guarantee security.

Today, Ukraine spends about $65 billion annually on defence. This is an enormous figure for a nation under constant attack. Yet even after the war ends, we cannot radically cut defence spending. Only a growing and modernising army can provide real protection.

Ukraine’s armed forces are among the strongest in Europe, with unique combat experience. That is why allied investments in Ukraine’s army are not just support for us, but an investment in their own security. It is the only way to ensure stability, long-term planning, and prevent Ukraine from ever again being left defenceless.

Military strength is impossible without reliable supplies. Ukraine needs stable and predictable deliveries of weapons and ammunition. This requires significant resources, but these supplies are what sustain the fighting capacity of our armed forces.

It is crucial that deliveries are timely and consistent. They must not depend on the political will of any individual ally. Defence cooperation must remain unchanged.

Regular supplies not only strengthen Ukraine’s army but also safeguard Europe. Every missile or shell delivered to Ukraine is another step toward ensuring that Russian aggression does not spread further.

Support must be stable and fixed. Partners should not only issue political statements, but also sign multi-year defence contracts with Ukraine. This means committing at least $5 billion annually to procure weapons and equipment from Europe and the United States.

Such agreements ensure that American and European factories plan production with Ukraine’s needs in mind. They also prevent disruptions caused by changes of government or election cycles.

Britain has already shown that this is possible. The UK has pledged to provide Ukraine with $3.8 billion annually in military support (both financial and equipment) until at least 2030. In 2024, this support amounted to $3.3 billion. These examples must become the standard.

Ukraine must develop and sustain its own defence industry. The state should guarantee at least $5 billion annually in domestic defence contracts. This means jobs, innovation, and technological development. But this must happen in close cooperation with the West.

We are already transitioning to Nato standards and Western weaponry. We have the combat experience that allows us to identify which systems perform best in real conditions and which require improvement. This kind of strategic cooperation strengthens not only Ukraine’s army, but the armed forces of other democratic nations as well.

Moreover, if Ukraine expands its capacity, it will not only defend itself but also become a reliable arms exporter to allies. Eastern Europe, the Middle East and other regions would be natural markets. Western investors, too, will see that supporting Ukraine’s defence industry aligns directly with their strategic interests.

Last year Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, emphasised that Brussels must regard Ukraine as part of its own system of security and defence, and take practical steps to integrate Ukraine’s defence industry with Europe’s. Such an approach would make cooperation more effective and mutually beneficial.

Ukraine’s military has already proved that it is not only resilient but also innovative and capable. With stable funding, a strong defence industry, long-term contracts with the West, and its own strategic doctrine, Ukraine can become not a petitioner for aid but a key ally.

True security guarantees are not found in diplomatic formulas, but in budgets, contracts and weapons.

These are the guarantees that will ensure Ukraine, supported by the resources of its allies, not only survives but shapes Europe’s security for decades to come.

If we look at the wider picture, we see a deadlock. The West would like to help but is unwilling – or unable – to take on the responsibility of true guarantees.

Endless negotiations circle around words and formulas, but none of them change the fact that no one is prepared to send their own troops to fight for Ukraine.

And the reality is that we do not need somebody to fight for us, we just need help to carry the fight ourselves. It is time for clarity and pragmatism. Ukraine does not need declarations; it needs resources. Every dollar invested in Ukraine’s defence strengthens not only our army but the security of Europe as a whole. The clock is ticking – let’s talk numbers.

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Oleksiy Goncharenko is the Ukrainian member of parliament for Odesa