12/09/2025

Many people say that Ukraine can’t possibly win its war against Russia, because Russia is a much larger opponent. But this doesn’t match even with Russia’s own recent history. In this video, I talk about the growing Ukrainian insurgency movement in the occupied Donbas region, and how it is making a meaningful difference on the battlefield. I map this to the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, a war that they ultimately lost due to insurgency. I then talk about why this matters for any peace deals between Ukraine and Russia, showing why failing to understand these dynamics will almost certainly lead to a peace that doesn’t last.

Source: Paul Warburg