Kateryna Chernoval22:39, 23.12.24

The details of Ukraine’s missile program are closely guarded, and for good reason.

Ukraine is working on developing a missile industry amid possible problems with Western aid in the future. One of the missiles being worked on is the Trembita , writes  The Economist .

“The Trembita engine is a modern remake of the $200 pulse jet engine that was first used in the German V-1 bomb in 1944. The engine tube is a rough version. Underneath it hangs a more stylish gray rectangular housing that hides the missile’s guidance system and warhead,” the publication writes. 

“Trembita” in the basic configuration is capable of speeds up to 400 km/h and has a flight range of 200 km. However, a larger and more powerful model is also being developed, which will be able to fly to Moscow. Serial production should begin after the final field tests. It is noteworthy that it took the developers only a year and a half to achieve such a result, because usually the path from drawings to weapons reaching the battlefield takes many years.

It is not known how long Ukraine can count on large amounts of foreign military aid. Therefore, “Trembita” is one of several projects that, as Ukraine hopes, will give impetus to the revival of domestic industry.

During the Soviet era, Ukraine was a world leader in space and missile innovation. The Dnipro plant “Pivdenmash” produced four generations of strategic missiles. But that was until 1994, when, under the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nuclear small ballistic missiles in exchange for what turned out to be useless security guarantees. Later attempts to revive the industry failed due to corruption, government weakness, Russian interference, and a lack of political will.

The details of Ukraine’s missile program are closely guarded, and for good reason. Russia has relentlessly attacked production facilities, killing and maiming hundreds of workers. For example, in December 2023, several cruise missiles hit the Neptun missile factory in Kyiv. In November 2024, Russia targeted Yuzhnmash in the Dnieper with its “new” Oreshnik inter-regional ballistic missile. 

This has pushed missile production in Ukraine to a new level – underground. Some processes have been moved to protected bunkers. Production is spread across hundreds of inconspicuous facilities. 

Another tricky issue is funding. The government supports the production of any rocket that has proven it can fly, offering private manufacturers the same 25% maximum profit margin it grants drone manufacturers. But developers often have to risk significant amounts of their own money to get a project off the ground.

An even more difficult task is scaling up to industrial production – raising capital, purchasing sensitive equipment from abroad, and ensuring security. Here, Ukraine lags behind Russia’s state-owned military complex. 

One source says new partnerships with Western allies are the best way to scale. Not every country is willing to share its expertise, equipment, and risks. But some are stepping up, including Denmark and the United Kingdom.

For the West, the potential is obvious. Producing a cruise missile with almost identical flight characteristics could be 12 times cheaper in Ukraine than in Western Europe, the publication explains:

“For example, the Trembita missile costs only $3,000 in the decoy version and $15,000 complete with a 20-30 kilogram warhead – a bargain in the missile world.”

But now Ukraine needs time, and it may not have enough. A senior security official says the country needs at least a year to produce missiles in the quantities, with the range and capabilities to seriously threaten Russia.

By then, a lot can change. It is unknown what US President-elect Donald Trump will do. Russia could also use the ceasefire talks to demand restrictions on Ukrainian missile production. But that won’t stop the people working on Trembita, assures Sergey Biryukov, head of the engineering team:

“If there is a truce, it will only be between governments. We are guerrillas. Our missiles will continue to fly.”

(C)UNIAN 2024