As Kyiv’s full operational design becomes clearer, we can expect decisive battlefield victories soon
RICHARD DANNATT 28 July 2023 • 5:49pm
After weeks of patient probing of the Russian defensive lines and absorbing irritating criticism from those safely away from the front line, the Ukrainian counter-offensive is gaining real momentum.
The arc of optimism would draw parallels with the success of the D-Day landings on June 6 1944, but this counter-offensive should be conceived more in terms of the whole Normandy campaign of June to August 1944. Meticulous preparation, careful reconnaissance, intensive training and unlimited patience are the characteristics of a successful campaign.
The Ukrainian army has had to reinvent itself twice since February last year. First, it had to harness the determination of the Ukrainian people to resist Russian aggression with all the defensive capability that it could beg, borrow or steal to protect its independence and sovereignty.
Then it became clear that resolution by negotiation was a non-starter given the mutually irreconcilable objectives of Putin and President Zelensky. For the Ukrainian army, this has meant transitioning from being a defensive force to one that is capable of conducting offensive operations, while absorbing new Western equipment. This is akin to driving a Formula One car around Silverstone at 100mph with the mechanics still building the car.
The Russians have not been idle. Under the now-disappeared General Sergey Surovikin, the conscripts of the partial Russian mobilisation, with professional engineer guidance, have built formidable lines of defence in eastern Ukraine. These are deep, well constructed and thickly laced with extensive minefields.
Over the past two months, the Ukrainian battlefield medics have treated many soldiers suffering traumatic amputations as these defensive positions have been probed for their weaker points. This has been a bloody, painstaking process but one that was essential if the counter-offensive stood any chance of success. That moment would seem to be now, or in the next few days and weeks.
The Ukrainian main effort appears to be in the Zaporizhzhia region. A thrust has been made south of Orikhiv, towards Tokmak. This seems to be a reconnaissance in force by one of the Western-equipped attack brigades.
Should this probe break into the Russian lines and offer the possibility of a breakthrough, then the bulk of the Ukrainians’ second echelon force, the Tenth Corps, could be committed towards Melitopol on the coast. Tenth Corps holds most of the Western equipment and its troops are well-led, trained and comparatively fresh. However, the Ukrainians are also pressing around Bakhmut and Vuhledar, sowing uncertainty in the minds of Russian commanders.
This may soon create the circumstances for a break-out beyond the defensive zone and into more open country. It is then that the Western equipment and thinking would begin to pay dividends. The Russian army does not need to be defeated in detail but the typical Russian soldier must be made to feel the fear of being bypassed, with his enemy behind him, and for his commanders to realise that they have been outmanoeuvred. Death, withdrawal or surrender.
A successful strike on the axis Tokmak to Melitopol could split the Russian forces, presenting the possibility of those in the Kherson region being cut off and surrounded. Moreover, the land corridor to Crimea would be vulnerable to interdiction and the prospect of the Russian garrison there being isolated. These are all potential developments as the full Ukrainian operational design becomes clearer. At this stage, much is still speculation, but the developments of recent days present the possibility of decisive moves on the battlefield.
Given this prospect of success, the wider strategic goal must remain an independent Ukraine.
General Lord Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff.
That was a pleasure to read. One can only hope that the old General has it right.
Selected comments from DT readers:
The comments are swarming with kremtrolls; often their comment begins : “I’m not pro-Putin but……” and then it goes into pure kremkrapp. Here are some decent commenters:
five dialogues:
There is no doubt the thrust through the centre of the front is the hardest fought move on the battlefield and especially one where the enemy have had time to prepared substantial defences; some twenty miles deep if we are to believe.
Turning the flanks in the west and the east would be a more orthodox manoeuvre, a safer option, but a thrust through the centre offers a multitude of opportunities.
As you rightly say, if the battle group can fight their way past the defences, they can create havoc in either the west or the east giving the Ukraine as numerical advantage for the first time and allowing them to defeat the Russians in detail. With adequate air cover (which the US have not provided it would have been a done deal) but they have not got any, or any in sufficient numbers. So, if they are defeated the Onus is on the USA not them. That should provoke a mutiny as the veterans are all in and defeat to the Russians would never be accepted.
An orthodox manoeuvre en masse is not viable but as you say – the mere presence of them in the Russians rear is enough to cause doubt, especially to conscripts. A veteran army would stand and hold their ground, but psychology is the determinate factor with less seasoned troops.
They will waste their time and resources going to the coast unless it is an arsenal, and it is not.
Turn west and they threaten the Crimea and the reason for war to the Russians but turn east and they break the Russians umbilical cord.
The entire Russian front should collapse as they advance just behind the Russian lines. Bringing to bear a temporary advantage.
God go with them.
Martin Mitchel
ISW today;
Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Ukrainian forces can conduct strikes against the full depth of defending Russian forces and that these strikes are killing Russian commanders and degrading Russian command and control. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) refused to go to combat near Staromayorske due to heavy losses and Ukrainian battlefield victories.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 28 and have reportedly advanced along the Svatove-Kreminna line (Against the Great Orc Army of the East!!! 😲).
Huw Thomas:
Lord Dunnatt’s likening to this campaign to Normandy is very apt. In fact it seems to be following the timeline of post D-Day 79 years later pretty much to the day. The counteroffensive began around June 6th and for the first seven weeks only advanced a few miles. The new release of Ukrainian reserves to break through Russian lines in late July mirrors Operation Cobra which finally broke out of the Normandy beach head to eventually encircle the German 7th Army in the Falaise pocket.
If the Ukrainians can reach the Sea of Azov and properly destroy the Kerch bridge hundreds of thousands of Russian troops will be isolated in the Crimea and the western end of the “land bridge” and will inevitably be forced to surrender.
This will be Russia’s Singapore 1942.
SPW SPW
The Germans were better trained and motivated than the Russian forces are today not to mention battle hardened so no comparison really. Also the Ukrainians are seriously motivated despite the horror because they are defending their homeland and unlike the allies they are not an invasion force: they are fighting on their own turf.
Even if some armistice a la Korea is agreed there will still be a low level insurgency year on year with an endless traffic of body bags returning to Russia eventually forcing Russia to withdraw just as they did in Afghanistan once the political and economic costs become unsustainably. Their whole campaign was predicated on the false assumptions that the Ukrainians would just fold and that they would receive little support from outside. If they had more of an airforce the war would already be over.
“Ukraine is on the verge of splitting Russia’s army”
This scenario would be spectacular and a severe blow to the cockroach army. Let’s hope it happens, and this very soon.
“…Ukrainian battlefield medics have treated many soldiers suffering traumatic amputations as these defensive positions have been probed for their weaker points.”
If Biden weren’t such a spineless coward and had more intelligence, he would’ve sat down with Ukrainian leaders and generals and our generals before the planning for this offensive began to discuss what is needed and what the best strategy would be. Essential items should’ve been sent last year already, before the cockroaches had a chance to dig in. If not, then a strategy should’ve been worked out that entails going into mafia land itself, where there are no defenses, as we’ve seen several times already. The path around orc defenses would’ve been longer, but far easier.
Each amputation, injury or death can be partially attributed to Biden’s stupidity and cowardice. I have zero confidence in the old goat in this war, or if China should start getting aggressive.
You’re absolutely correct Sir OFP. I would add lack of any leadership abilities which would have dictated an ability to think strategically with some foresight. That said, we have what we have and not much we can do with it.