Oct 27

By Svitlana Morenets

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• The first batch of US-provided ATACMS missiles ‘exceeded expectations’ by causing Russia to move its helicopters away from the front line because Moscow couldn’t shoot down the missiles, according to a Kyiv official.
• The EU will issue an assessment of progress made by Ukraine in its membership bid in early November. Based on the results, the bloc will decide whether to start accession talks with Kyiv.
• Ukrainian pilots have begun training to fly F-16 fighter jets at a US air base in Arizona.
• Ukraine’s parliament speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuk, said that he has reached out to the parliaments of other countries to see how they have conducted wartime elections.
• Stefanchuk named ‘key issues’ for holding elections next year: ensuring that the military and refugees can vote; organising elections in occupied territories; wartime financing of elections; media access.
• The EU is falling short on plans to provide Ukraine with one million rounds of artillery shells by March. Only 30% of promised shells have been delivered.
• Ukraine and Russia continue to maintain communication channels during the war to exchange prisoners of war, bodies and to return abducted Ukrainian children.
• Viktor Orbán has invited a Ukrainian delegation to hold negotiations in Budapest if Kyiv wants Hungary to lift the veto on EU military aid to Ukraine worth 500 million euros.
• Some 59% of Ukrainians are optimistic about the country’s progress in the fight against corruption, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found.
• An abbot of the Kremlin-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for spying on the Ukrainian military for Russia.
• Slovakia’s new Prime Minister said he won’t support military aid to Ukraine and European sanctions against Russia.
• A former Russian space agency chief offered to attack Ukraine with a space missile after being wounded in the buttock in the Donetsk region in December, Bild reported.

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Wider reading on the war

Ukraine’s race to build its own arms industry – Alec Russell, Christopher Miller (Financial Times)

Record Russian armour, personnel losses in failed attempt to take Avdiivka by storm – Francis Farrell (Kyiv Independent)

Ukrainian spies with deep ties to CIA wage shadow war against Russia – Greg Miller, Isabelle Khurshudyan (Washington Post)

Ukraine’s allies are scrambling to bolster its air defences – (Economist)

Electric cables, hammers and guns: Ukrainians tell of Russian torture – Lorenzo Tondo (Guardian)

The analysis:

What does a new US Speaker mean for aid to Ukraine?

For the past few weeks, the US House Speaker’s chair has sat empty. Kevin McCarthy was ousted from the position on 3 October amid accusations from some Republicans that he was colluding with Democrats in a ‘secret deal’ to assist Ukraine. While the position has been vacant, critical legislation, including aid for Ukraine, has not been able to pass. But with the election of Mike Johnson, an ally of Donald Trump who is known to be Ukraine-sceptic, US politicians may have chosen their stance on the conflict.

This development follows a decline in support for aid to Ukraine among both Democratic and Republican voters. Republicans for Ukraine, an advocacy group seeking support for Kyiv within the party, gave Johnson an ‘F’ (the lowest score) on their so-called report card, which grades congressional Republicans on their votes for aid and statements about the war. While Johnson supported providing lend-lease assistance to Ukraine, he consistently advocated for reducing aid to Kyiv. Furthermore, Johnson is a loyal Trump supporter; the former president is eyeing a return to politics and often discusses the idea of Ukraine trading occupied territories with Russia for peace. Johnson was asked about his stance, as the 56th House Speaker, on increasing aid to Ukraine. He responded: ‘We are going to have conditions on that, so we’re working through… We want accountability and clear objectives from the White House, and we will have productive discussions.’

Joe Biden has already urged Johnson to act quickly to secure additional funding for national security needs, including aid for Ukraine. This aligns with a White House bill proposal, which includes about $61 billion in emergency funds for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. Concerns have arisen that some US Senate Republicans may seek to separate aid to Israel from aid to Ukraine due to the decline in popularity of supporting Kyiv, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Passing an aid package of this magnitude will be a tough sell. Until recently, the President had said the US would support Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes’, explaining it to voters in terms of the struggle for democracy and the negative consequences for the US if Russia wins. But his arguments haven’t been entirely effective, given the lack of progress in the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which suggests the war may drag on for years.

Biden has now shifted his messaging, saying instead that ‘we will help Ukraine to defend itself’. Politico reported that US politicians are being advised to highlight the fact that the support for Ukraine will create jobs for Americans, such as in the defence industry. A significant part of the money that Biden proposes to allocate to Ukraine will be spent to replenish American weapons warehouses. Emphasising these facts could potentially win over Americans who may not be inherently pro-Ukrainian.

Biden’s aid package could provide Ukraine with crucial support until the next US election. With the uncertainty of Trump’s return to the political stage, there’s a chance this could mark Kyiv’s final assistance from its most significant ally. Ukrainians can only hope that this is a scenario they never have to confront.

In pictures

Near Kyiv, Ukraine: Members of a new ‘Siberian Battalion’ within the Ukrainian Armed Forces undergo military training. The battalion is made up of Russians who have come to fight against their fellow citizens. (Getty)

Quote of the week

‘We have done a lot, and I would say much more than one could expect from a country at war… For Ukraine, this is a top priority – readiness for a political decision this year to begin negotiations on EU membership. I hope the same goes for the EU.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky in an address to the European Commission.

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The war in numbers

Rubles in Russia’s 2024 budget for ‘education and youth policy’ in occupied regions

50bn (£440m)

Radio Liberty has called it money for ‘brainwashing’

Companies relocated from near war zones to other parts of Ukraine

840

The government provides assistance for them to relocate

Artillery rounds delivered to Russia from North Korea

350,000

While Europe has sent 300,000 to Ukraine, according to Lithuania’s foreign minister

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk